SINGAPORE: The spacing out of Build-to-Order (BTO) launches this year could increase applicants’ chances of getting a flat, but the longer wait between sales exercises may see some turn to the resale market, said property analysts.
A total of 19,600 new public housing flats will be launched in three batches in 2024 – in February, June and October, the Housing and Development Board (HDB) said on Monday (Jan 8).
It is the first time since 2015 that HDB will hold three instead of four BTO sales exercises in a year.
INCREASED CHANCES
Property analysts shed some light on how this approach could improve an applicant’s chance of securing a flat.
Although the total number of flats offered throughout the year remains consistent, the head of research and data analytics at Singapore Realtors Inc (SRI) Mohan Sandrasegeran told CNA the key difference lies in the increased density of options in each separate exercise.
This approach essentially focuses on the concentration of available units in each exercise rather than “spreading them thinly” across more exercises.
“This higher concentration within individual launches could potentially improve applicants’ odds by offering a wider variety in each round, as opposed to smaller, more frequent offerings,” he said.
“As a result, the chance of an applicant securing a flat could be enhanced because they are choosing from a more extensive pool of options at once,” he added.
Having more units and BTO projects launched per sales exercise may also spread out the number of applicants, possibly leading to better chances for buyers, observed Ms Christine Sun, senior vice-president of research and analytics at OrangeTee & Tie.
Key executive officer for ERA Singapore Eugene Lim also noted that more flat options at each sales launch will provide applicants with a wider range of choices, thereby helping to reduce confusion.
Applicants would also be encouraged to be more decisive in choosing their preferred town, estate or flat category, he added.
“ENOUGH TIME TO TRY FOR THE NEXT ROUND”
The spacing out of sales launches may also favour unsuccessful applicants, helping to increase the likelihood of them participating in the next sales exercise and securing a home.
Under current HDB rules, those who have applied for a BTO exercise cannot apply for a subsequent one if they have received a queue number.
This was announced in October last year, with HDB saying it was to ensure applicants do not “crowd out” others who have not secured a queue number.
Analysts have cited this factor as a counterbalance that may help moderate competition and high application rates.
“If the sales exercises are spaced out, those who were not successful in obtaining a unit in the last launch may have enough time to try for the next round,” said Ms Sun.
Selection periods for various BTO launches may coincide when launches occur more frequently, said SRI’s Mr Sandrasegeran, adding that his overlap can pose challenges for potential home buyers.
“For instance, they might find themselves in the midst of making a decision about a flat in one exercise while the next exercise is already commencing. This concurrent scheduling can lead to a difficult situation for applicants, as they are faced with new options before finalising their decisions on previous ones,” he said.
Huttons’ senior director for data analytics Lee Sze Teck echoed this view, adding that buyers may miss out on the next BTO launch while waiting to see if they are successful in their initial application as the selection period usually takes about three months.
RESALE MARKET
Despite these potential advantages, analysts also indicated that the longer wait between launches may cause some to turn to the HDB resale market.
These buyers may end up forking out more to own a flat when compared with buying directly from HDB, said Ms Sun.
Mr Lee also sees more buyers potentially heading into the resale market as a result of this change.
“Previously it was a wait of three months in between launches. But it is stretched to four months in 2024. Buyers who feel that the wait is too long will turn to the resale market to find their dream home,” he said.
The reduced frequency of launches could also create a sense of urgency among potential home buyers, said Mr Sandrasegeran, adding that those who urgently require housing may find themselves gravitating towards the resale market.