Japanese citizens will choose their new president and congressional Yuan members on January 13. Due to term restrictions, the Democratic Progressive Party’s ( DPP ) current president, Tsai Ing- wen, is not running for reelection.
To oust the DPP in power, two rival parties made an alliance attempt. But, disputes over who would lead the solution as its presidential candidate caused the , strategy to fall apart.  ,
Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election is essentially a three-way culture thanks to Terry Gou, the billionaire founder of the tech behemoth Foxconn, and his subsequent withdrawal from the race.
The main contenders are Ko Wen- je, chair and founder of the minor Taiwan People’s Party ( TPP ), and Lai Ching-te, a member of both the ruling DPP and the opposition Kuomintang ( KMT ) party.
Lai, a vice chairman of Taiwan who holds solid pro-independence qualifications, belongs to the DPP. Since July, he has been leading in the pollsandnbsp.
The KMT’s Hou is never a particularly strong or active candidate for mayor of New Taipei City, and he has little national and international experience.  ,
Without defining what” China” means, he has and endorsed the 1992 Consensus, which implies that both Taiwan and the Chinese mainland are a part of one China.  , However, Hou is seen as weak in his devotion to this cross-strait coverage, which is significant to KMT heavyweights like former leader Ma Ying-jeou.
Ko, a politician and former doctor from the TPP, just finished serving as governor of Taipei for the next time. He portrays himself as an anti-elite outsider, and fresh voters who dislike the traditional political divide between the “pan-Blue” and “pen-Green” social camps, which are led by the KMT and DPP, are well-received by his blunt remarks and concise soundbites.  ,
Ko emphasizes that his cross-strait plan may be guided by the rules of “deterrence and contact” in order to position himself as an alternative” next power.”
Although the” China factor” continues to be the main political cleavage in society and is still the most significant factor influencing citizens ‘ political behavior, it has not been as significant a campaign issue in the 2024 elections as it was during the 2020 elections.
President Tsai Ing- Wen had the chance to enhance her reputation as a supporter of Taiwan’s sovereignty and democracy thanks to Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2019 and Beijing in response to the Hong Kong protests ‘ following restrictive responses.  ,
Her dwindling political prospects were revived by the China factor, which also contributed to her resounding defeat in the 2020 election.
Despite the fact that Foreign leaders have increased their military pressure, Tsainow  downplays Beijing’s threats rather than exacerbating them. DPP officials appear concerned that Lai’s chances of winning may be negatively impacted by the KMT claim that the forthcoming election is a choice between war and peace.
Other than to refute the KMT’s tale by portraying the election as a choice between democracy and autocracy, the Lai plan has seldom discussed Taiwanese military risks.  ,
Lai has moderated his pro-independence jobs and emphasized that he would continue Tsai’s mindful approach toward the relationship between Taiwan and China in order to allay people ‘ fears that another DPP administration would incite a violent reaction from Beijing.
Engagement with China has always been the KMT’s cross-strait plan because it believes that markets between countries can deliver economic and political benefits to Taiwan.  ,
This does help to explain Hou’s proposal to resurrect the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement, which sparked the Sunflower Movement, a sizable uprising in 2014.  ,
However, given that less than 40 % of Taiwanese citizens now support the 1992 Consensus, a decline of more than 20 % since 2019, the engagement proposal may be challenging to sell.
Beijing’s prolonged strain has turned into a annoyance that breeds resentment because Taiwanese have been living under constant military danger for many decades. As a result, voters have not yet been moved by the “war and serenity” tale.  ,
This is not to say that the people of Taiwan are unconcerned about the China risk. However, pocketbook problems and nbsp, such as stagnant wages, a lack of inexpensive housing, and small career prospects, seem to garner more attention, especially among the younger generation.
Beijing has continued to get involved in the political process despite the fact that the China factor appears to have been overshadowed by the market during the 2024 presidential campaign because it is aware that Lai’s success may mean Taipei would continue its strategy of demonstrating the islands ‘ independence and independent position within the global community.
Chinese officials have continued their military force on Taiwan in an effort to sway political results and have emphasized the “war and serenity” narrative. According to reports, the Chinese government has also been using economic coercion and sanctions against Taipei in an effort to undermine DPP individuals.  ,
A senior mainland official cautioned the region’s residents to make the” right selection” in the forthcoming elections after Xi Jinping reiterated his claim that Taiwan and China would never be reunited.
Beijing has n’t yet succeeded in changing public opinion despite its best efforts. Lai maintains his polling advantage while the other two factions ‘ candidates lag behind. Experience from the past has shown that the threats and explicit support of the Chinese government nearly always led to the opposite results.  ,
Beijing’s hard-line plans backfired in the 1996 and 2000 national elections as individuals who Chinese officials disapproved of won the presidency, in addition to helping President Tsai win by a landslide.
The majority of Taiwanese do n’t want to join China. Beijing’s restrictive responses to Hong Kongers ‘ call for democracy have alarmed many people on the island even more.  ,
All signs point to Chinese leaders maintaining their unwavering stance toward Taiwan, and really Lai win the election on January 13, the history of uncomfortable and chilly cross-strait relations under DPP management properly repeat itself.
T Y Wang is the University Professor and the Department Chair of Politics and Government at Illinois State University. He is also the co-editor of The Taiwan Voter and The Journal of Asian and African Studies.
This article, which was previously published by the East Asia Forum, has been republished with a Creative Commons license.