Sayyed Razi Mousavi vanished from the internet two weeks ago. He made no impression on search engines or in media policy of the Middle East and Iran’s defense.
However, Mousavi’s 30-year existence was a well-kept solution in Damascus, the capital of Syria. He had served as General Qassem Soleimani‘s right-hand man. He was in charge of the Egyptian Quds Force, the Revolutionary Guards ‘ unit for businesses outside of Iran.
After March 2011, the Assad government and Lebanon’s Hezbollah killed hundreds of thousands of dissenters in Mousavi, which served as their contact. He was appointed Iran’s top chief in Syria in 2021.
Israel put Mousavi in the news on Christmas Day. Three rockets were launched from planes into Iran’s primary military complex south of Damascus in the Sayyed Zeynab region. The captain passed away right away.
Saleh al-Arouri, in contrast to Mousavi, was surrounded by issue all the time. He oversaw activities in the West Bank and served as the Israeli organization’s assistant political head. He was the founder of Hamas ‘ military tree.
Al-Arouri moved from Qatar to Turkey to Lebanon as a result of social pressure from Israel, but he never vanished from view while interacting with Persian and Hezbollah officials.
He is said to have been involved in the planning of Hamas ‘ large murders on October 7 in Israel and in discussions of a wait to release women and children held as hostages by the Palestinians in Israeli prison while Israelis were being killed in Gaza.
Hezbollah’s headquarters are in the southern Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh, where an Israeli aircraft struck a tower on January2. Al-Arouri, two senior Hamas officers, and a number of other employees were killed.
Israel has frequently used assassination, including that of Hamas ‘ spiritual leader Ahmed Yassin in 2004. However, it often takes responsibility. It has repeatedly attacked Syrian positions under the Assad government as well as Persian and Hezbollah targets.
However, this time, the Israelis are expanding their principles of relationship, if any, in the context of their military abuse across Gaza. They are asking” What are you going to do about it” and telling Hamas, the Iranian government, and Hezbollah,” We can reach you anytime, anywhere.”
Tough poses come with even tougher challenges.
The leaders of Iran and Hezbollah have so far only said,” No much.” at least as far as a confrontation with Israel directly goes.
Major General Hossein Salami, the captain of the Revolutionary Guards, said at Mousavi’s death that the Zionist regime would be overthrown as our only form of retaliation for the death of Sayyed Razi. But he immediately added that “great and honorable Arab fighters” would be used to accomplish this.
Ebrahim Raisi, the leader of Iran, posed with Mousavi’s home for a picture. Without providing any specifics, he declared,” This violence will surely not go unaddressed and the Zionist criminals will compensate for this crime.”
Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Hezbollah, read from the same script on Wednesday regarding the murder of Hamas ‘ al-Arouri, saying,” This serious crime will not go unanswered or unpunished.”
Nasrallah and the Egyptian leadership insisted that the assassinations were a sign of Israel’s “weakness,” which was unsatisfactory given that more military leaders are currently being targeted and two military commanders had just been killed.
A full-frontal battle with Israel is likely calculated by everyone from Iran’s top head to Hezbollah as a potential suicide procedure.
Since October 7, Israel and Hezbollah’s forces have been exchanging weapon, helicopter, and jet fire, with the death of some Israeli soldiers as well as at least 137 Jewish fighters.
In addition to raising the military bets, an growth of those skirmishes do. With about 80 % of its people living in poverty, Lebanon’s sector, which has already been named by the World Bank as being in one of the most serious economic crises since the 19th century, could suffer a fatal blow.
With no leader and 12 sporadic, fruitless legislative sessions, the nearly paralyzed Syrian government could eventually degenerate into anarchy.
Iran exhibits” balance” thanks to its dictatorship, the defense, and the government. However, despite years of US-led restrictions as well as incompetence and displacement from the Revolutionary Guards ‘ broad passions, the economy is still fragile if not at a breaking point.
The most recent demonstrations against the government’s control over Egyptian society, which have been violently suppressed, are the “woman, life, liberty” protests that have taken place since September 2022.
A” top Iranian source” reflected when Amwaj Media asked if there would be retribution for the killings, saying,” Difficult decision.” I’m kind of damned if you do, and I damn you again, do n’t I?
waging an implicit conflict
Given these limitations, it’s possible that the rulers of Iran and Hezbollah may be willing to let Hamas and the civilian population of Gaza bear the brunt of Israeli military action. Tehran will get a propaganda success: troubled in October over potential involvement in Hamas’s bulk murder, the regime is taking advantage by posing as the spiritual defender of the oppressed Palestinians.
In the meantime, “indirect war” is unrest the earth, if not the Israelis. Iranian military and political support are being used by the Yemen’s Houthi rebellion to attack human ships in the Red Sea.
The Yemenis have forced some operators to divert traffic around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope while the US and additional nations have deployed ships, with American planes sinking three Houthi little boats that threatened a Maersk box ship. In just one year, ocean goods rates have more than doubled.
Since October 7, more than 100 spacecraft and aircraft attacks have been made against American workers on bases in Iraq and Syria by militias supported by Iran. The Americans have retaliated against military positions with lethal force, including the Thursday killing of a head of the Iraqi army groupal-Nujaba in Baghdad.
Short of a direct confrontation with Israel, the Iranian government will attempt to agitate other nations through this combination of activities. Without engaging in a significant conflict, Hezbollah will maintain its display of force along the northern Jewish border.
However, there is always the possibility of a network effect that, if no one wants or intends it, will result in the second-front war.
The conclusion is still in place. The “indirect battle” beyond Palestine, including assassinations, is likely to grow as long as Israel continues its “open- ended” abuse on Gaza, without any visible finale at this point.
Professor Scott Lucas teaches at University College Dublin’s Clinton Institute.
Under a Creative Commons license, this article is republished from The Conversation. read the article in its entirety.