Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, vowed on January 1 that the Russian attack on Belgorod on December 30th do” not go unpunished.”
It was n’t just a meaningless threat. The Russians launched about 50 drones at several Ukrainian targets on December 31; by January 1st, there were 90 more.  , However, the heaviest assaults occurred on January 2 when at least three tides of missile and drone strikes hit Russian target ( at 6:55, 8:20, and 9:30 am ).
It appears that the January 2 attacks drastically reduced Ukrainian air defenses, particularly in Kiev. Russia launched between 11 and 13 nbsp rockets at Kinzhal Hypersonic. We do n’t yet know the targets ‘ names or the extent of the Russian strikes.
Although he offered no supporting information, Armed Forces Chief of Staff Valery Zaluzhny  claimed that the Ukrainians shot downward 11 Kinzhal & nBSP weapons.  , Kinzhals were observed attacking priorities in Kiev without any air defenses.
According to reports, the Soviet aircraft used in the attacks was the , Geran- 2, a Russian-named variant of the Iranian death aircraft, Shahed.
At least 21 people were killed and injured in the Russian invasion on Belgorod, including four kids, and 111 others were injured, 17 of whom were children. All of the victims were civilians, and there is no proof that any targets set by the Russian forces were even remotely military. No Soviet soldiers were killed, .
Another Russian attacks were reported on January 2nd in Belgorod, but they caused much less destruction. Additionally, an assault on Donetsk was reported, this time aimed at civilians.
Vasily Nebenzya, the UN adviser for Russia, claims that Belgorod’s targets included an ice rink, a activities complex, and an academic institution.
Russia claims that swarm munition weapons were used by the rockets. Due in large part to the fact that the US ran out of conventional 155mm rounds, the United States previously supplied Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions , ( DPICM), which are cluster munitions rounds. Although neither the Ukrainians nor the Czechs denied the use of cluster sessions in Belgorad, it is unclear if the MLRS in Ukraine or the Vampire in Czech Republic have cluster weapons.
For several months, the Russians have been attacking Polish cities and towns ‘ water and energy supply infrastructure as well as military goals. Some Russian arms have been used against human goals, including hotels and apartment buildings.
The Russians typically assert that the house complexes were either accidentally hit by wayward Russian air defense missiles or that they were basically used as intelligence facilities, military command centers, and hostels for Ukrainian and international soldiers.
Ukraine has consistently asserted that Russia is aiming its weapons at citizens.
The Russians demanded an urgent UN Security Council meeting, claiming that cluster munitions were used and that the Russian attacks were only directed at citizens. Additionally, Russia accused the Czechs of providing the RM-70 Vampire multiple rocket launchers and nbsp, which were used in the attack, as well as the Ukrainian and Olkha ( Vilkha ), which fire 300mm rockets. In addition,  ,
Russia  shot down 17 Olkha rockets on January 2 in the Belgorod region, according to the Russian news agencyTASS.
The Russians claim that the assault on Belgorod was carried out directly on the directive of Ukrainian President Zelensky. The procedure was started by the Kraken unit of the  . The Main Directorate for ( Military ) Intelligence ( GUR) is in charge of the Special Forces Unit known as the Kraken Regiment, which is led by Kirill Budanov.
Sergey Velichko, a Kraken area commander, was credited by the Russians with leading the Belgorod operation. Velichko had previously served in the Azov regiment, which is regarded by many as a neo-Nazi and islamophobic organization known for its cruelty.
The northern region of Kharkiv is home to the Kraken unit.  , The GUR is in charge of this system, which is not a part of the Russian army.
Zelensky appears to be concentrating on winning battles in Crimea. Zelensky stated in an interview with the Scholar that a successful procedure by Ukraine in the “temporarily occupied Crimea” may serve as an “example to the planet” and have significant impact on Russia.
Zelensky and Valery Zaluzhny, the commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, have very different tactical perspectives. In addition, Zaluzhny is adamant about resuming protective jobs, reducing losses, and resisting any Russian attempts to enlarge the conflict outside of the Donetsk and Zaphorize regions. There is little proof that Zaluzhny’s primary defense goal is Crimea, despite the fact that he has never commented on it.
Zelensky, on the other hand, wants to continue the US and Europe’s financial, military, and aid support for Ukraine. Andnbsp, He also believes he may undermine Russia’s authority and possibly even overthrow Putin.  , He places more social than defense emphasis on Ukraine. Zelensky is aware that the only way he can hope to succeed politically in Crimea is through asymmetrical methods. Because of this, Ukraine relies on the use of long-range weapons like the British- French andnbsp, Storm Shadow, and on-and-on robotic helicopter boats.
Ukraine is rapidly losing ground on the battlefield, particularly in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-areas to the west. Ukraine is still suffering considerable loss in the numerous gunfights that have taken place along the line of contact, which is also shifting to the west.
Zelensky, however, is also betting that assaults on Russian cities may garner support from the West.  , That seems improbable.
For assaults might have a very different impact on Ukraine and its supporters.  , Russia, focusing on the Czechs, for instance, may reveal more sinister Russian strategies to condemn the suppliers as well, which could spark a larger issue.
There are still risks for Ukraine even if the Russians keep the fighting within their borders. One of them is the loss of American help, which may have an effect on NATO’s weak grip on Western security if Russian attacks on Russian cities were to escalate the conflict.  , Before things get out of hand, that dread might hasten efforts to reach a package with Russia. In addition,  ,
Another is the evolving social landscape in Europe.  : Political change is looming, and while Poland may or may not want to battle the Russians, there is little joy abroad. Andnbsp, This is true even of the British, who are ardent Ukrainian adherents and want to continue the fight. The UK is on the verge of running out of weapons, supplies ( and money ), and its Tory government is in jeopardy of losing an election.
Germany, whose economy is faltering and its military readiness is astonishingly lacking, is one of many countries on the continent where the political crisis is getting worse.  , Zelensky’s Belgorod attack ca n’t win many votes inside NATO capitals, and it is very dangerous if the conflict spreads into Europe.
Whether Zelensky’s assaults on a Russian town were justified or not, they were misguided and could result in catastrophic self-inflicted injuries.
Stephen Bryen, who oversaw the Near East Subcommittee of the
As a assistant secretary of defense, the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and nbsp
Presently a senior fellow in coverage at Yorktown Institute and the Center for Security Policy, respectively.
Originally published on his Weapons and Security Substack, this essay was  . It is republished with your style consent.