A looming American failure in Ukraine?

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Quantitative and qualitative polarization trends

David Woo and David Goldman take stock of polarization trends across economic, market, and political arenas, noting the prospect of a stark strategic reversal for Washington in Ukraine with consequences for its prestige far greater than its failures in Afghanistan or Iraq.

Military conflict risks: Israel to take matters into its own hands?

David Woo analyses the results of the RIWI-Unbound Military Conflict survey and considers whether Israel will act against the Houthi attacks on Israel-bound ships if no one else will a day after a Houthi missile hit a Norwegian tanker en route to Israel.

Investment themes in a polarizing world

David Woo and Scott Foster examine various investment options linked to OPEC+ unity and Russia’s commitment to putting a floor under the oil price, reserve diversification from US Treasuries, onshoring, electric vehicles, semiconductors, and more.

No Ukraine enthusiasm among the European peoples

Diego Faßnacht writes that there is little enthusiasm for aiding Ukraine and admitting it to the European Union left among Europeans after 22 months of war. the low level of support for Ukraine’s accession to the EU is likely to slow down the process of its admittance.

Putin’s electoral plans for Ukraine coming into view

James Davis writes that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declaration that he will seek the presidency in 2024 frames the election as a referendum on the need for Putin to finish the job in Ukraine and complete the task of safeguarding Russia’s position in the world.