Vladimir Putin has known since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine that Russia still has time to its benefits.
The conflict could drag on for days, months, or even years without causing Moscow’s government to change due to the size of the Russian territory, people, economy, and Putins ‘ tight hold on politics.
In fact, part of the West’s plan to arm Ukraine but quickly after the war was to pressure Moscow and try to knock Russia down repeatedly so that it would be forced to negotiate.
However, 20 months after the war, a new conflict broke out, diverting attention from Ukraine to the West and the rest of the world.
The Gaza War, which researchers will probably refer to as the Next October War because it occurred 50 times after the 1973 September War andnbsp, has turned into an opportunity for Russia to reclaim the moral high ground, establish a stadium among the Global South, and alter the government’s relations with Middle Eastern countries.
The first has received a lot of attention. As a product from the West andnbsp to Moscow, the United States and other nations have given Israel complete freedom.
American hypocrisy
The Kremlin and its proponents in politics and the media have frequently made ugly comparisons between the US’s response to the Ukraine invasion, which included threats and sanctions against Russia, and how it has handled Israeli episodes on Gaza.
The blatant hypocrisy perfectly fits Russia’s claim that great powers act differently and that laws do n’t apply to them. They enquire as to why laws had so use to a tremendous power like Russia when it senses danger from Ukraine.
The skill to , stadium among the nations of the Global South, has been connected to this attempt to reclaim the moral high ground.
Experts have noted that Russia’s introduction of the United Nations resolution 10 days after the Gaza War began to result in a ceasefire was, in fact, only partially successful in terms of diplomacy.
The decision did not pass, but it did send a message to the court of public opinion in the Global South that the world was biased against their passions because China and Russia were in pursuit and the expected American allies were against.
Although they do have an impact, those adjustments are more about public perception than actual politicians. However, the conflict in Gaza is likewise changing how Russia interacts with other nations in the Middle East.
relations between Russia and Israel
Russia has made an effort to keep diplomatic ties with Israel for decades. With a firm foothold in Syria, it has made an effort to act as the mediator, giving Israel some liberty to bomb locations inside the nation and also giving Iran space to intervene.
That has changed as a result of the Gaza battle. Russia welcomed Hama’s group to Moscow within two weeks of the war-starting attack on October 7th, apparently to explain how to protect Russian people.
However, since that could have been accomplished without for a formal visit and because Iran’s assistant foreign secretary was present at the same time, it was reasonable to assume that Russia was facilitating their planning. Since then, the marriage has deteriorated deeper, and the UN envoys from both nations have spoken harshly to one another.
Russia’s decision to leave Israel has the potential to win social support from all over the Arab world. It makes it more difficult for Turkey and Muslim nations to boldly help Ukraine.
Volodymyr Zelensky wo n’t be welcomed at the Arab League summit the following year due to his open support for Israel and lack of statements regarding the destruction in Gaza. Zelensky perhaps have made a mistake with that calculation, but Moscow may take advantage of it.
Turkey and Russia relationships
Additionally, the war has made ties between Russia and Turkey more cordial.
The two had been carefully circling each other in Syria long before the invasion by Ukraine, and Turkey has been attempting to strike a balance between the two sides in the Ukraine conflict. However, the conflict in Gaza has altered that and united them both.
Both sides see an opportunity for a bigger part in the thorns they have directed at Israel or its main supporter, the United States. That would be comparable to the spiritual authority of the Middle East for Turkey and Russia, a foe to China for the Global South’s leadership.
The conflict in Gaza has given Russia a chance to move past the conflict in Ukraine and improve relations with the Middle East.
It is frequently overstated that Russia is returning to the Middle East. Despite its efforts to work effect throughout the Global South, Russia seems unconcerned with the significant support given to Arab and African governments during the Cold War.
Instead, Russia now engages in “vacuum diplomacy,” rushing to complete America’s voids, driving out American influence once it loses favor, or siding with marginalized political parties.
These characteristics can be seen in Moscow’s new welcoming of Hamas, in the way Wagner agents work with American governments, or in how Moscow was content to defend the Syrian government from its armed adversaries.
The same is true of the conflict in Gaza, which has occurred at the perfect occasion for Putin. With what appears to be no problems or restrictions on European support for Israel, a window of opportunity has opened for Russia to reenter Middle Eastern politics.
Simply a matter of time, really.
The Syndication Bureau, which holds rights, provided this content.
Felipe Al Yafai is a recurrent commentator on global TV news networks and is currently working on henchmen on the , Middle&ndsb, and East & NBP. He has covered the nbsp, Middle & Nb, East, NB, Eastern, North, South, Europe, Asia, and North Africa for media organizations like The Guardian and the BBC. @FaisalAlYafai, follow him on X .