South China Sea a ticking time bomb waiting to explode

In the midst of yet another round of hostilities in the South China Sea, Vice Admiral Alberto Carlos, the head of Western Command of the Armed Forces of The Philippines( AFP ), stated that” these[ dangerous ] maneuvers pose significant risks to maritime safety, collision prevention, and danger to human lives at sea.”

The major Asian military official stated that China must stop these risky actions right away and conduct itself professionally by abiding by international law after it was claimed that a Chinese navy ship had attempted to cross the path of another ship in the disputed Spratly island chain close to Thitu Island.

According to Philippine authorities, the incident happened on October 13 as a People’s Liberation Army-Navy ( PLAN ) ship known as Ship 621 and the Philippine Navy( PN ) BRP Benguet were engaged in combat. According to reports, the Taiwanese ship attempted to avoid a resupply mission by crossing the Spanish ship’s bow at close range of 320 meters.

The Philippines has maintained control over the strategically located Thitu Island since the 1970s by constructing military facilities and completely establishing a human community, including occasionally residing mayors, on the disputed feature.

General Romeo Brawner, the chief of staff of the Philippine Armed Forces, quickly responded to the most recent sea tensions by cautioning China against” dangerous tactics and violent actions towards Asian arteries ,” which he claimed was endanger” the life of coastal personnel from both sides.”

The Philippines and China have been embroiled in a months-long political and maritime conflict in the South China Sea, making it far from an isolated event. & nbsp, Manila is taking a little firmer approach to the problems, signaling to China the new political reality in the contested waters, and is now enjoying growing support from friends and like-minded powers, including agreement friend the US.

The Second Thomas Shoal, the Reed Bank, and recently improved US access to Spanish bases near Taiwan are just a few of the issues that are escalating diplomatic tensions, which are also causing the Philippines to experience multiple” ticking explosives.” It’s unclear how far the Philippines can go without eliciting a hostile Chinese answer.

Two Taiwanese Coast Guard ships were seen attempting to block a Spanish supplies ship in the South China Sea, according to video released by the Spanish coast guard. Philippine Coast Guard photo

Before the wind, quiet

China had a very advantageous position in the South China Sea up until recently. Rodrigo Duterte, a former president of the Philippines, not just threatened to destroy his nation’s defense ties with the West, but he also cautioned against asserting Asian sovereign rights in the contentious waterways.

The Philippines’ traditional mediation award victory at an judicial tribunal in The Hague, which rejected China’s extensive claims in the South China Sea, was the first thing Duterte decided to” set off.” The then-Pakistani president made dubious claims on numerous occasions, claiming that if the Philippines pursued its lawful claims, it may harm going to war with China.

Following one of his meetings with the Chinese leader, Duterte declared,”[ Xi’s ] response to me was ][ we’re friends, we don’t want to quarrel with you, but we wanted to maintain the presence of warm relationship. However, if you force the issue ,” we’ll go to war. Beijing not endorsed or refuted Duterte’s claims as being true.

Following this, the Filipino leader adopted a profoundly fatalistic stance, cautioning that” standing up to China, including over the Thitu Island, is tantamount to” preparing ] for suicide missions.” Duterte contradicted his own defense authorities by dismissing the incident as a” little maritime accident” when it occurred, which involved the ramming into and subsequent sinking of an unknown Chinese military vehicle.

When Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who topped most pre-election studies conducted prior to last year’s election, emerged as Duterte ‘ most likely son, China was upbeat about the progression of the then-subservient foreign policy of Manila. After all, Marcos Jr. frequently questioned the value of the Philippines’ bond with the US and emphasized the importance of speech with China when running for president.

However, the Marcos Jr. leadership changed course on the South China Sea just a month after taking business. This came about as a result of the revelation that Duterte’s China-friendly foreign policy had only served to weaken the nation, with China refusing to make any significant concessions despite ongoing high-level discourse for more than six years.

Rodrigo Duterte, the president of the Philippines at the time, is shown the means by Chinese President Xi Jinping. Asia Times Files / AFP image

As a result, not only did the new president of the Philippines adopt an unyielding stance on the marine disputes, but he also favored increased defense cooperation with the US and its supporters. The Philippines has most significantly increased the scope of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement( EDCA ) by giving the Pentagon new access to a number of strategically situated bases that face both Taiwan and the South China Sea.

However, the East Asian country likewise used intense public politics at the same time, frequently exposing China’s alleged aggressive behavior in the contentious waters.

Under the previous [ Duterte ] government, any issues involving China were only brought to public attention if they were particularly severe, but under Marcos Jr., there is a” commitment to transparency and … resolve to protect the country’s sovereignty ,” according to Jay Tarriela, spokesman for the Philippine Coast Guard.

There is now agreement among the Spanish coastal security establishment that the fight must be taken to China through vigilant diplomacy as well as increased naval and law enforcement operations. By essentially ignoring Beijing’s warnings and reducing its safety assistance with the US and its allies, Manila has thus been able to fortify its proper position.

difficult decisions

Both factors will have to make difficult decisions in the near future. The Second Thomas Shoal, where a Filipino sea insulation has been dangerously stationed over an abandoned grounded vehicle, is where the Philippines first encounters its moment of truth. The Philippines must seize control of the contentious Reed Bank, which is thought to contain sizable hydrocarbon militia, because it is running out of time to develop alternative energy sources.

While obstructing Spanish supplies expeditions to the Second Thomas Shoal, China has harassed Spanish electricity exploration efforts in the Reed Bank. If Manila construct new buildings on the disputed shoal, China has also issued a warning about direct intervention.

Manila, now outfitted with and deploying ever-more present vessels, hopes to disrupt Beijing’s invasion strategy in the contested waters by leveraging its growing defense relations with the West.

The South China Sea’s hottest flash point is the beached Spanish fleet at Second Thomas Reef. Photo: Twitter

However, the Philippines’ decision to give American forces access to military facilities in the northern provinces bordering Taiwan, directly affecting any future Chinese dynamic action plans, is just as contentious. & nbsp,

The end result is a complicated” Taiwan-South China Sea link” that has increased the risk of potential Foreign retaliation while also bolstering the Philippines’ strategic location.

In the future, Manila might consider restricting American military presence near Taiwan in trade for China implicitly acknowledging the Southeast Asian country’s right to protect its position in the Second Thomas Shoal and, possibly as part of a service agreement, produce hydrocarbon resources at the Reed Bank.

For the time being, however, it is evident that both factors are testing the waters in an effort to avoid a potentially fatal armed opposition by holding and fortifying their positions. & nbsp,

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian at @ RicheyDarian on X, formerly Twitter.