It is pointless to try to reach a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine as long as Volodymyr Zelensky is chairman of Ukraine. & nbsp,
Zelensky is firmly entrenched in an immobile position due to the fierce Ukrainian nationalists who oppose any compromises to Russia, who are responsible for his domestic support and success. To the very end, they want to struggle( both men and women ).
Is there a way to stop the terrible war in Ukraine if negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are difficult?
The information is simple. The first, which is now readily obvious, is that Ukraine will fail in its conflict with Russia. It lacks the resources— both men and firepower— to drive the Russians from Ukrainian territory. & nbsp,
The new four-month-long Ukrainian counteroffensive has produced almost no positive outcomes aside from the massive sacrifice of war equipment and the close to 20,000 dead and wounded soldiers.
It is now reported that Ukraine will launch yet another offensive activity by crossing the Dnieper River in the vicinity of Kherson in an effort to block Russia’s area exposure to Crimea, largely at the spur of the United States. & nbsp,
According to reports, this offensive will also include an assault on the sizable Zaphorize nuclear power plant( Zaporiz’ka atomna & nbsp, elektrostantsiia ) & NBPSP to trigger a nuclear incident that Russia will be blamed for in Ukrainian propaganda.
Due to the impending cool and seasonal rains that will support Ukraine, there is little occasion for a new offensive. However, it appears that the strategy is based on the notion that Russian infantry can navigate Russian artillery concentrations by using built roads.
Although there is a rumor that the UK is moving Typhoon & nbsp, Eurofighter aircraft, to Poland that could be seconded to Ukraine, Russia will still maintain air dominance over the battlefield. ( The & nbsp, as promised, won’t arrive in Ukraine in time. )
Typhoons cannot be operated by Russian pilots because they have never received any training with them, indicating that they would need to be piloted by UK aircraft and remain based outside of Ukraine.
The Typhoon story is closely related to Grant Shapps & nbsp’s proposal to send UK troops to Ukraine to better train Ukrainian troops there and to assist the Ukrainians in planning and carrying out both their current offensive and the new one intended for the Dnieper River and Zaphorize. In addition, & nbsp,
Additionally, the American defense minister suggested using an active naval force in the Black Sea to fight Russia. In order to remove Russian-installed mines in the Black Sea, Britain is now planning to send UK ship ships.
The Russians would almost certainly view the arrival of armed UK forces in Ukraine as a” casus belli” and the Ukraine war would spread to Europe. & nbsp,
Rishi Sunak, the prime minister of the United Kingdom, reportedly received this message and walked up Shapps’ proposal to take armed troops to Ukraine. The potential Typhoon operations and American naval aid for Ukraine in the Black Sea have not yet been discussed by Sunak.
In the meantime, Washington’s situation is beginning to change. Russia carried out at least five distinct strikes on October 1 in response to US and Western efforts to move defence production to Ukraine, destroying Russian military depots, upgrade and maintenance facilities, and producing complexes. & nbsp,
Cherkasy, Kryvyi Rih, Zaphorize( including the Motor Sich website production company ), Kostiantynivka, and Kharkiv were among the target of powerful strikes and nbsp. With enough opposition from the US government to force Ukrainian aid out of the recently passed Continuing Resolution & nbsp, discontent with supporting Ukraine is growing back in Washington.
Some of the opposite expresses worry about the pervasive problem in Ukraine. The bigger issue in Ukraine, however, is a social conflict brought on by the fact that General Valerii Zaluzhny, the country’s current army commander in chief, opposes the Dnieper unpleasant ideas that Zelensky and Washington are pushing. & nbsp,
Beyond that, due to mounting opposition, Ukraine came very close to enlisting enough men and women in the army in August and September. Therefore, The & nbsp’s decision to fire recruiters was not motivated by corruption( although there was undoubtedly some), but rather by a lack of qualified candidates. & nbsp,
There are numerous dangers facing Zaluzhny. Zaluzhny is the subject of a criminal investigation by the Ukrainian State Bureau of Investigation( DBR ) and the domestic intelligence service, SBU, for the failure of the most recent counteroffensive in the south, according to recent BBC Ukrainian Service reports. In addition, & nbsp,
Without Zelensky’s assistance, this exploration could not have taken place. Zelensky has set up his own personnel in the SBU, which he employs to detain and plague his rivals.
Yet the Russians consider Zaluzhny to be a superb chief. Attacks against Zaluzhny are already on the rise; they accuse him of blowing up the Nord Stream network, which is likely a CIA processing that did not directly place the blame. & nbsp,
But, a criminal investigation into his direct military leadership would be very damaging to both Ukraine’s military and its capacity to continue fighting.
The real question is whether Russia and NATO can reach a deal, not just over Ukraine but also over the safety structures in Europe, putting aside the holes that are beginning to appear in Ukraine. & nbsp,
The Russians feel threatened by NATO growth. Russian officials also think that the transfer of radioactive features to the front lines will occur along with the growth of NATO and NATO bases. & nbsp,
Russia wants to move back NATO enlargement, which isn’t even remotely possible. Finding a way to counteract perceived offensive threats, however, is potentially negotiable and would resemble, in some ways, arms control agreements that are either no longer relevant or have been abandoned, particularly the 1987 Intermediate Range Nuclear Force Agreement ( INF ) andnbsp, which the Trump administration canceled in the beginning of 2019. & nbsp,
Some believe that INF was canceled because it & nbsp prevented the US from competing against Chinese intermediate range nuclear weapons, despite US claims that Russia had not complied. China has vehemently opposed joining any significant hands limits agreements and has never been a celebration to the INF.
Without NATO assistance, Ukraine may fight for very long. On the surface, given that EU and US officials are rushing to Kiev, one might conclude that NATO will continue to provide Ukraine with unrestricted assistance. & nbsp,
However, fundamental factors exclusively( such as a lack of supplies, for example ) make assistance on the level of the previous year hardly possible. Furthermore, because none of its interventions have resulted in success, Europe is growing exhausted. & nbsp,
Germany, once the business powerhouse of Europe, is currently experiencing economic decline primarily due to a lack of adequate low energy sources, particularly Russian gas. The Germans may eventually have to deal with their political and economic future, most likely sooner.
Officials in Europe, if not in the US, are starting to become more aware of the possibility of a widened battle. & nbsp,
If Ukraine rejects talks with Russia under its current rulers, it would appear that NATO and Russia are unconstrained and ignore regional social concerns. & nbsp,
If Ukraine experiences more military setbacks or the democratic system in Ukraine collapses, it is unlikely that the Biden administration will turn around and open the door to politics.
Zelensky may get caught in a trap that he cannot leave, but Biden is seeking re-election and wants to avoid being held accountable for another disaster following Afghanistan. Although it is difficult to predict with certainty what circumstances did bring Biden to the negotiation table, he does have a choice and can avoid disaster. & nbsp,
Senior fellow Stephen Bryen & nbsp works at Yorktown Institute and the Center for Security Policy. His Substack, Weapons, and Strategy was the subject of this andnbsp’s initial publication. Asia Times is republishing it with their consent, nbsp.