JAKARTA- For the better part of a month, Prabowo Subianto, the protection minister and leader of the Great Indonesian Movement Party, had been debating whether to nominate Muhaimin Iskander as his running mate for the national election in February of next year.
The Golkar and National Mandate( PAN ) parties recently joined Prabowo’s campaign team, and despite the fact that the two parties collectively held more than the 20 % of parliamentary seats required to nominate him as a candidate, Iskander eventually lost his usefulness. And he was aware of it.
At that point, cunning president of the National Democrat Party( Nasdem) and media tycoon Surya Paloh pounced, luring Iskander away to join opposition candidate Anies Baswedan in a shift that left spectators wondering how much President Joko Widoo contributed to it and why.
What transpired at meetings between the president and the bearded business in the days prior— who was the first older politician to support Widoo in 2014 before abruptly abandoning their ruling coalition and supporting Baswedan earlier this year— remains a mystery.
Paloh acknowledged that the leader had asked about Baswedan’s potential running partner when they first met on July 18, but he made no further mention of it. On August 31, two days prior to Baswedan’s vice president news, they met at the house and discussed Iskander once more.
The strange turn of events, which occurred just before the official registration of candidates for next month, caused more questions than it did answers about the game the ever-popular Widoo may be playing in secret to increase his influence after reaching the end of his two-term limit in October of next year. & nbsp,
As a nominal member of Megawati Sukarnoputri’s ruling Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle ( PDI – P ), Widdo has already caused controversy by refusing to publicly back Ganjar Pranowo, who recently served as governor of Central Java for ten years.
In fact, given the hostilities between the leader and Megawati, there is a lot of rumor that Prabowo rejected Iskander because he wants to run for vice president with State Enterprise Minister Erik Thohir— a nearby Widodok aide.
Thohir, 53, who is ostensibly connected to PAN, is a rich businessman who was elected president of the Indonesian Football Association and is well known for effectively hosting the 2018 Asian Games.
The way officials, including Prabowo, have suggested they need his approval before making any moves that may affect the contest to select his successor has even seemed to irritate Widodok, who felt obliged to address his fence-sitting.
” There has been no training or path from Pak Lura( village headman)” is the standard response when asked who the president or vice president may be, according to a complaint made by Widdo next month.
” I didn’t understand what they meant. I finally realized it was me, so I responded,” I’m not the head of a village, just the president of the Republic of Indonesia.” I must emphasize that I am not the leader of any democratic party or partnership.
Former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Democrat Party ( DP ) broke away from the opposition camp and offered itself to one of the two front-runners, Prabowo or Pranowo, after Baswedan confirmed Iskander as his vice presidential candidate.
An unhappy Democrat speech claimed Baswedan had on some occasions promised he would select Yudhoyono’s child, party chairman Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, as his running mate, the next time in a publicly – released written letter on August 25.
It is unclear how Paloh was able to use for effect, but he had just portrayed the 45 – time – old Yudhoyono Jr as a social amateur who had not got beyond the rank of major before his parents cut short his military career in 2016 and compelled him to enter politics.
” Anies is so dependent on Surya Paloh and he follows him whatever he decides”, says a DP source, noting that while the Democrats can go elsewhere, the other coalition partner, the right – leaning Justice and Prosperity Party ( PKS ), is bound solely to Baswedan because of its strong conservative Muslim following
Experts believe that on the floor, at least, Megawati needs the Democrats more than Prabowo, especially in an obvious second round of voting when the expected throwing of Baswedan in the first round on February 24 did see most of his followers voting for Prabowo.
So far, the extremely cruel Megawati doesn’t throw off her lingering enmity towards Yudhoyono Sr, which goes back to when he defeated her in the 2004 presidential race, the region’s second primary election since the 1998 fall of therefore – president Suharto.
Just last month, PDI – P diplomats broke the ice by initiating a meeting with the Democrats. But since then, Yudhoyono Sr has confirmed Megawati is only prepared to deal with her brother, adding:” My personal connection with Ibu Mega is bad”.
More than that, a well – placed Democrat cause says the PDI – P administration has made any great – level talks between the two parties centered on the Democrats declaring their previous backing for Pranowo. ” It’s hard for us to take that”, he told Asia Times. ” It’s not dignified”.
Prabowo has made no such needs, but then he is conscious that the Democrats ‘ personal objectives rest entirely on securing a share of Cabinet content and nothing more. Under Indonesia’s social laws, parties must go to a partnership in a presidential election.
The sight of Yudhoyono Sr and Prabowo singing up this year stands in stark contrast to Megawati’s continuing refusal so far to join the 74 – time – old Democrat benefactor in people. As one close aide put it:” It’s both from her. We don’t have a problem in most”.
With the General Election Commission( KPU) bringing forth and shortening the subscription window for political and evil presidential hopefuls, Prabowo and Megawati today have between October 10 – 16 to make their decisions.
Megawati appears to be showing a lot more pragmaticism by leaning towards & nbsp, Ridwan Kamil, 51, a professional architect and the innovative former West Java governor who ended his term on September 5 and only recently held a long meeting with the matriarch at her downtown residence.
If he is Megawati’s chosen one, it would be the first day governors from surrounding provinces have run on the same solution and indicate a growing new growth in national politics where figures from the Jakarta wealthy are reduced to playing second fiddle to provincial politicians on a path blazed by Widodo himself.
The former Suharto political machine now holds a record low of 12.3 % of parliamentary seats, down from 21.5 % in 2004. Kamil only joined Golkar last January in an effort to help stop the third-ranked party’s waning fortunes in legislative general elections.
Golkar president Airlangga Hartarto, the financial integrating minister, and other group leaders have reportedly stated that they will not prevent their favorite new recruit from accepting the position, despite the fact that the celebration is now aligned with Prabowo.
Kamil’s popularity even spreads to other elements of Java and Sulawesi, where he is also known as the creator of Makassars distinctive, orange-painted 99 Domes Mosque, in addition to having a better chance of winning more votes for Pranowo from Arab voters in the popular West Java.
Analysts are interested in how PKB, which is frequently regarded as Nahdlatul Ulma’s( NU ) political arm and has supported Baswedan from the start and primarily draws on the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt as its primary sources of ideological and organizational inspiration, will collaborate with PKS.
While PKB citizens are concentrated in the NU homeland of west and Central Java, the majority of PKS’s help comes from West Java and West Sumatra, where Widoo suffered significant losses in 2014 and 2019.
Analysts now think Prabowo will lose the presidential election, even though coalition size is not a crucial consideration. The controversy that followed Iskandar’s switch of horses only served to increase rumors that the applicant had chosen Thohir or Mahfud MD, the main political secretary and another dependable member of Widoho.
The president perhaps see Thohir as a bridge between his leadership and the next one, using his sanction as an effective inducement, after Widodok’s supporters’ attempts to gauge his chances of winning reelection were soundly rejected.
As he continues to fend off square – bird standing in his last year, Widodok is clearly still very focused on securing his reputation, particularly his US$ 33 billion plan to move the federal funds from Jakarta to East Kalimantan.
How else can the Constitutional Court’s decision to reduce the presidential maximum time from 40 to 35 be explained? This decision is widely regarded as a move to give Widod Obesson, 35-year-old Solo town mayor Gibran Rakabuming, the opportunity to run mate in the 2024 election. & nbsp,
That is unlikely to happen, primarily because pursuing such a blatantly political objective would jeopardize his reputation in the same way that he would try to win another term in office.