MANILA – “Twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week, 365 days a year, the Philippine Navy patrols the country’s territories in the West Philippine Sea to show and enforce our claims in the area,” declared Captain Noli Ibanez, the commanding officer of the BRP Jose Rizal, the nation’s most modern frigate.
Just over a decade ago, the Southeast Asian nation renamed its 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea as the “West Philippine Sea” to reassert its claims in the contested maritime area.
“Although we rarely publicize it, rest assured, we fulfill our constitutional obligation to defend the country’s waters throughout the year,” he told this writer during a recent visit to the Philippines’ flagship vessels in Subic, the former site of massive American bases.
Despite sustained harassment of Philippine vessels by the Chinese Coast Guard and militia forces, morale remains high among Filipino officers thanks to a multi-billion-dollar military modernization program that has seen the acquisition of many modern platforms, mostly from South Korea.
Crucially, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has, similar to his late dictator father, taken a more assertive position in the South China Sea, effectively jettisoning his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte’s softer approach toward Beijing.
In particular, his decision to expand military cooperation with the US under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which allows US rotational access to Philippine bases, has been widely welcomed by the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP).
“Absolutely, we need EDCA, especially for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations,” one senior navy officer, who oversees major disaster-related responses, told this writer.
When asked if they welcome further expansion of EDCA sites to Subic, another officer was even more forthcoming. “EDCA is not purely for defensive purposes, but it’s also crucial for the development of skills and capabilities of our officers,” he said on the condition of anonymity due to restrictions on policy-level statements by active personnel.
The EDCA’s expansion has become an especially relevant issue in light of America’s emerging strategic footprint in the northernmost provinces of the Philippines, which crucially are close to Taiwan. Latest reports suggest that the US Pentagon is contemplating the development of a civilian port on the remote northernmost islands of Batanes.
China has struck an increasingly defiant tone to the growing American military presence in its peripheries. In a telltale sign of its commitment to asserting its expansive territorial claims, Beijing recently released a new “standard” map, which controversially encompasses much of the South China Sea as well as disputed Himalayan borders with India.
Seven years after an arbitration tribunal at The Hague struck down the legality of China’s nine-dash line claims as incompatible with modern international law, the Asian powerhouse has now revealed a new “ten-dash line”, which also encompasses Taiwan.
The newly released map provoked a chorus of criticism across the region, with India leading the pack. New Delhi lodged a “strong protest” against the inclusion of the disputed Aksai-Chin plateau and Arunachal Pradesh as part of Chinese territory.
“We have today lodged a strong protest through diplomatic channels with the China side on the so-called 2023 ‘standard map’ of China that lays claim to India’s territory. We reject these claims as they have no basis,” India’s foreign ministry said in a statement.
Immediately after, multiple Southeast Asian nations followed suit, beginning with Malaysia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ categorical rejection of “unilateral claims…to sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction on Malaysia’s maritime features.”
For its part, Vietnam made it clear that it “resolutely rejects any claims in the East Sea [South China Sea] by China that are based on the dashed line” amid renewed tensions following recent reports of violent Chinese harassment of Vietnamese fishermen in the disputed areas.
For the Philippines, which initiated the arbitration proceedings at The Hague under the aegis of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), China’s new map was a double insult.
“This latest attempt to legitimize China’s purported sovereignty and jurisdiction over Philippine features and maritime zones has no basis under international law, particularly the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea,” the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said in a strongly-worded statement.
Manila’s statement reminded Beijing that the 2016 ruling “categorically stated that maritime areas of the South China Sea encompassed by the ‘nine-dash line’ are contrary to the Convention and without lawful effect to the extent that they exceed the geographic and substantive limits of China’s maritime entitlements under the Convention.’”
The Philippines is operationally preparing for, at best, a long struggle with and, at worst, a potential conflict with the Asian superpower.
Although the South China Sea has been the frontline of Philippine-China tensions for the past decade, leading Filipino strategists are worried about any potential war over Taiwan.
As former vice-admiral Rommel Ong told the author, “China’s occupation of Taiwan would imperil the Philippines’ northernmost provinces”, directly threatening the country’s heartland.
Despite its claims to “neutrality”, the Philippines will likely be automatically targeted by Chinese forces in the event of a conflict. As a US mutual defense treaty ally, the Philippines would be crucial to both American military countermeasures to a Chinese invasion as well as serve as a potential refuge for retreating Taiwanese forces.
Geography is key. Some of the Philippines’ bases, notably in Mavulis Island, are just over 100 nautical miles away from Taiwan’s southern shores, making them an ideal strategic depth for pro-Taiwan forces as well as a top target for China in the event of an all-out war over the self-governing island Beijing considers a renegade province.
Despite opposition from Beijing-friendly local officials, most notably Governor Manuel Mamba of Cagayan province, a growing number of Filipino leaders in northern provinces are openly welcoming an American military presence.
Marilou Cayco, the provincial governor of the Batanes islands, has publicly backed a new US plan to develop “an alternative port” in her jurisdiction, likely in Basco, the provincial capital. US troops have reportedly visited the area recently in order to explore the development of more robust infrastructure in the remote yet highly strategic area.
Kanishka Gangopadhyay, a spokesperson for the US embassy in Manila, did not mention the port facility specifically, but confirmed that the US Embassy and US Army Pacific (USARPAC) experts had been in communication with Batanas Islands authorities “at their request to discuss ways USARPAC can support engineering, medical, and agricultural development projects in the province.”
A decision on the proposed port facility is expected to be made next month.
Jay Batongbacal, a top Filipino maritime expert, told the media that rapidly improving facilities in the northernmost islands is crucial since “[i]f I were a Chinese strategist, I would want to take the Batanes at minimum in order to ensure control of the Luzon straits and use the island to prevent the approach of adversary naval forces.”
The Pentagon is reportedly in contact with Philippine troops stationed in the Batanes Islands about the potential transfer of radar systems to enhance their domain awareness, including over choke points of the Luzon Strait and Bashi Channel, both of which have seen an uptick in Chinese naval activities in recent years.
Earlier this year, the Batanes Islands served as a training site for the massive Balikatan exercises, which saw as many as 17,000 military personnel from the US, Australia, Japan and the Philippines simulate modern warfare and undertake various maritime security drills.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @Richeydarian