The US asserted that North Asian patrol vessels attacked the US naval destroyer Maddox in the Gulf of Tonkin more than 60 years ago, on August 4, 1964. The Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, which was adopted by then-president Lyndon Johnson as lawful justification for sending US troops to South Vietnam, was the result of this incident.
In other words, it marked the start of the US’s eventual available presence in the civil war in Vietnam.
We now know that an assault never occurred, and the crucial choices that were made as a result were influenced by naval intelligence to suit Johnson’s social preferences and needs. & nbsp, He was looking for a reason to declare war on the United States without receiving official approval from Congress.
That was back then. Now is the time. However, record has a way of repeating itself, particularly if important teachings are overlooked. & nbsp,
Had subsequent events be paving the way for a similar justification for the US government to intervene in another country’s conflict, this one in the South China Sea between the Philippines and China? Like before, such an affair might draw US allies Australia and South Korea into a larger conflict.
At Second Thomas Shoal, where Chinese Coast Guard ships recently blocked a Philippine Coast protect vehicle from approaching the school allegedly for” site review,” an alternative version of this scenario may emerge.
The submerged shoal is a part of the Philippines’ continental shelf and is located within its exclusive economic zone( EEV ), according to an international arbitration panel established under the auspices of UN Convention on the Law of Sea. As a result, the Philippines has sole royal freedom and access to its sources. & nbsp,
Physically, no nation has the right to assert its reign over a feature that is submerged. The Philippines, however, views it as a matter of autonomy.
China also asserts it as part of its ancient state to a portion of the South China Sea that the same screen rejected. & nbsp, As a result, this conflict is rife with nationalism, and inaction could jeopardize the legitimacy of the current administrations. & nbsp,
The new near-collision there between the Coast Guard vessels of the two countries is not as entirely to blame as most American media would have us believe.
Beijing & nbsp claimed that the incident was a deliberate provocation by Manila. Yes, the assets are Philippine, and the Chinese ship broke international law by obstructing the course of the Philippine Coast Guard ship. However, it’s possible that the Philippines were attempting to incite the affair.
The Spanish ships announced their intention to enter Ayungin Shoal via broadcast and warned the Taiwanese ships to” stay clear of our passage.”
Manila was aware from prior knowledge that Beijing would respond angrily to its” rights” demonstration. But as part of its campaign to make China’s atrocities against it public, it wanted to incite a Chinese answer for the group of foreign journalists it had kindly invited down on its” independence patrol.”
There were two ships from the Philippine Coast Guard. Andnbsp, It’s odd that the conflict took place between the Chinese ship and the Spanish ship, which was carrying the journalists so they could see without being in urgent danger themselves. & nbsp, The journalists properly sensationalized the incident.
What does this, however, have to do with the US? It and the Philippines have a Mutual Defense Treaty ( MDT ) that formally requires each to think about helping the other’s military if it is attacked.
The US State Department has issued a challenge to China while evading the definition of” attack” in earlier incidents:
In accordance with Article IV of the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty,” The United States stands with our Asian allies in upholding the rules-based global marine order and reaffirms that an equipped attack in the Pacific, which includes the South China Sea, on Asian military personnel, people vessels, or aircraft, including those of a Coast Guard, would invoke US shared defense commitments.”
Admiral Samuel Paparo, the captain of the US Pacific Fleet, added that if China thwarts Manila’s efforts to replenish its causes on its based naval fleet on the school, it will be ready to help the Philippines. & nbsp,
The US has been warning China about these actions in general and more & nbsp for some time. However, it appears that each event fell outside the US’s definition of the boundary for activating the MDT, including the laser beam at a Philippine Coast Guard vehicle. Additionally, there is room for flexibility in the needs for help.
According to MDT & nbsp, Article IV, any armed attack on either party” will be acted upon in accordance with their constitutional processes and that any such attack will be brought to the attention of the United Nations for immediate action.” All hostilities between the members of this accord and opposing parties will be put an end to once the UN has issued for orders.
Therefore, the decision-making process might take a while, and military support is never guaranteed.
However, it appears that the US has upped the ante. In response to a request from the Philippines, it is currently planning shared guards for this year. The second could very well be close to Second Thomas Shoal. & nbsp,
The US has now put pressure on itself from the people to follow through on its risk. Then, it will be viewed as a toothless tiger that only growls and doesn’t bite, losing all credibility. China might make a mistake because this would be extremely risky.
With the Philippines in the middle and possibly also acting as a coach, the US and China are on the verge of playing chicken. In fact, it might incite China to strike its ships. They either collide or one blinks.
The US will probably use a coast-guard ship for any mutual patrol rather than its navy, which, like China’s, may be looming over the sky, in an effort to have the conflict.
The leaders’ judgment will determine whether the conflict intensifies and spreads. Basically, I’m hoping that one or both of them may change their minds. However, given the anti-China sentiment in Washington, a Gulf of Tonkin-like incident— real or fake— may force Congress to call for military action. cling to your helmet.
This content was edited and published in the South China Morning Post. & nbsp,