The government is fighting battles on numerous fronts, but it may find itself left defenceless against a breads and butter problem.
Korn: Pressing windfall tax
There is obviously no political reprieve for the government whose path towards the finish of its term in March next year is strewn with dangers.
Next week sees yet another main test that could choose the government’s fate. A no-confidence issue has been filed from the opposition against Excellent Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and 10 additional cabinet ministers.
Even though observers are sceptical the particular debate will package a punch, it will very likely leave coalition parties, including the judgment Palang Pracharath Party, bruised and battered. Along with them, Style Prayut will also face a heavy grilling, which could dim his chances of returning as premier in the next election. Which is if he survives the charter court’s ruling on his tenure.
The particular opposition is likely to jump at the chance to request the Constitutional Court to guideline on Gen Prayut’s questioned tenure. The main opposition Pheu Thailänder Party believes his eight-year term runs out in August given that he will have offered two back-to-back four-year terms following the 2014 coup.
Even if Gen Prayut survives the skin debate and the anticipated tenure court situation, he would not be from the woods.
The observers stated public patience keeps growing thin over the government’s handling of economic matters with no end in sight to increasing fuel prices and all-time high pumpiing biting deeper straight into people’s wallets.
The Prayut administration has drawn flak for frequently being on the defensive when it comes to addressing pushing economic priority issues. More than two years from the Covid-19 pandemic has also pushed it into dangerous waters exactly where it is running low on public support while some of its conventional supporters are looking for new faces to guide the country.
Amid the financial gloom, people are most of ears to recommendations and suggestions from experts and politicians with established qualifications who have scored politically for addressing a subject that has hit everybody right in their pockets.
One of them is Kla Party leader Korn Chatikavanij who has leaped to prominence since the fuel price crisis took hold of the country because of the Russia-Ukraine issue.
Being a former finance ressortchef (umgangssprachlich), Mr Korn can be readily qualified in order to impart his experience and knowledge in dealing with economic difficulties and the ongoing energy price wrangle has helped thrust your pet into the limelight and given him the particular political break this individual needs.
After turning their back on the Liberal Party after shedding out in the party’s leadership contest, Mister Korn established Kla which prides alone on being a practical party.
However , according to observers, the party offers yet to secure a strong foothold and combine a sizeable assistance base. It has experienced defeat in several polls it has competed within.
The particular observers noted some politicians thrive within a crisis and Mister Korn may be one of these.
They have seized the opportunity to call on the government to press oil companies to revise the kingdom’s refining margin ceiling and use earnings from oil refinery margins to help assistance the Oil Gas Fund being channelled to subsidise gasoline prices, despite this having slipped more than 100 billion baht into the red.
Mr Korn has often delivered to his Facebook in order to reiterate his phone calls to the government and recommended ways to relieve the impact associated with runaway fuel costs on people, especially those living from hand to mouth area.
This individual recently took the federal government to task with regard to lacking clear steps to solve the energy cost crisis after a Nationwide Security Council meeting.
In the Facebook Live session, Mr Korn made it abundantly clear he or she was disappointed with the government for identifying two committees in whose work, according to him, overlapped with that of the economic ministers.
He mentioned too much time has been spent without progress in easing the influence of high fuel prices since the Kla Party floated a suggestion resulting in the government inquiring oil refineries in order to channel their revenue into the fuel fund.
Mister Korn insisted Asia should follow the sort of many countries within slapping a windfall tax on essential oil refineries, a shift which is justifiable given people’s plight.
Sutin: Party ready for anything
A question of numbers
July 6 noticed coalition parties alter tack and support a method using 500 to calculate party-list seats despite the cupboard earlier endorsing the usage of 100 in the calculation.
The formula for calculating party-list votes is definitely part of the draft costs on the election associated with MPs needed for the particular charter amendment where the proportion of constituency and party-list chairs is changed from 350: 150 to 400: 100 and where two ballots will be used.
After the first reading of the organic bill, there was undoubtedly the use of 100, championed by Pheu Thailänder and the Democrats along with firmly established politics bases, would be followed in the next election, observers said.
It was seen as a straightforward method where the number of party-list seats acquired would be in direct proportion to party-list votes obtained from party-list ballots. As such large parties were more likely to win a significant number of House chairs.
The 500-method is very just like the calculation formula used in the 2019 common election which critics described as complicated and bizarre. As such, micro-parties have a better possibility of winning House chairs while major celebrations like Pheu Thai may not get any.
This formula, proposed by New Palang Dharma Party (NPDP) head Rawee Matchamadol and backed by micro-political parties, received slim support in the scrutiny process amid rumours it would be simply declined.
But as it turned out, an overall total of 354 parliamentarians voted for the use of five hundred in the party-list seat calculation, against 162 others who went for the use of 100. Prior to this, they kept a vote in which 392 shot over the use of 100.
The about-turn was said to were triggered by Primary Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s comments on the calculation method to leaders of the government coalition events. Gen Prayut reportedly spoke in favour of the particular 500 formula, which was seen as a signal in order to coalition MPs plus regime-appointed senators on how to vote.
Although the calculation method is not final — the bill must go through a final reading through, and not to mention this that will be forwarded to the charter court to get a ruling — this threatens Pheu Thai’s hopes of a landslide victory in the next forms.
The primary opposition party provides launched its marketing campaign early and there are encouraging signs it is going to sweep the next election. The use of the one hundred formula would give the particular party an advantage also it was expected to assist capture at least two hundred fifity of the 500 seats up for grabs.
Following the July 6 vote, Pheu Thailänder is expected to change its election technique by setting up a sibling party to focus solely on winning party-list votes.
This strategy, known as taek financial institution pan (breaking an one, 000-baht note straight into smaller denominations), is nothing new but has not been proved to operate because Pheu Thai’s sister party, Thailänder Raksa Chart, has been dissolved by the Constitutional Court ahead of the last poll.
While they are exasperated by the change within the calculation method, Pheu Thai bigwigs stay confident the party will make big increases.
“They think [the 500 formula] will deteriorate us. But the truth remains unchanged… that we’re ready for any kind of calculation method and yes it can’t break us, ” said deputy Pheu Thai chief and chief resistance whip Sutin Klungsang.
Along with reports suggesting how the political offshoot may be named the “Pheu Thai Family” party, the sister party will campaign easily, according to political observers.
Pheu Thai supporters are aware of this name, since it is the name of the project led by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, youngest daughter of ousted prime minister Thaksin.
It’s aim is to realise the party’s dream of sweeping the particular election by consolidating supporters nationwide, the biggest group of whom would be the red-shirt faithful.
The U-turn by the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) brought by Deputy Leading Minister Prawit Wongsuwon to back the 500 formula provides reinforced observers’ views that the ruling celebration is aware of the selection odds.
With a recent exodus of MPs and the larger proportion of constituency MPs, from 350 to four hundred in the next polls, the PPRP is not therefore sure the use of one hundred in the calculation will offer it an advantage, according to observers.
But due to the smaller number of party-list MPs, from 150 in order to 100, there are queries if micro parties will actually take advantage of the 500 calculation plus it remains to be seen if the technique can really change the odds and stop Pheu Thailänder winning a landslide.