Solutions mooted as Ukraine war drags on
The government will turns out a set of measures to ease the economic impact of the global fuel problems caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, said Krisada Chinavicharana, permanent secretary of the Finance Ministry.
Speaking after Thursday’s meeting of an ad hoc panel tasked with controlling the economic crisis chaired by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, Mr Krisada said they will discussed crisis administration measures to prepare for your fallout of the battle and other potential geopolitical conflicts.
They also approved a collection of “quick win” steps including a fertiliser management project, an additional scheme promoting the usage of organic fertilisers, the credit guarantee determine for small-and-medium-sized business owners, a measure in order to integrate farmers’ directories, and a financial measure to restructure the economy.
Follow-up moves will be launched to deal with the growing energy turmoil and the rising prices of commodities whilst energy conservation procedures will be devised in order to encourage the use of public transport and reduce venturing costs by placing an emphasis on rail transport.
Measures will also be folded out to address the high production costs and shortages of farming raw materials, ease the financial crisis hurting households and businesses, and fix the structural problems of the state’s economy and its decreasing competitiveness, Mr Krisada said.
Attendees at the meeting also predicted 3 potential global situations. The first involves the particular Russian-Ukraine war becoming a protracted turmoil that will drag on with no end in sight.
Sanctions enforced on Russia simply by Western nations and Russia’s counter-sanctions are required to continue and intensify on a gradual schedule, which will provide time for the global demand and supply for crude oil to adjust accordingly.
In light of the, Western nations will be able to reduce their essential oil imports from Russian federation, lessening the potential danger if Moscow selects to export oil to other markets instead. As a result, the global essential oil supply would not drop, Mr Krisada mentioned.
In this case, global oil prices are likely to keep dropping gradually this year since the oil supply will be better reallocated, he said. This should see the global economy broaden before it slows down next year, he added.
Thailand’s economy should expand accordingly, Mr Krisada said, adding this is in line with the Office from the National Economics plus Social Development Council’s prediction that GDP will grow by 2 . 5-3. 5% this year.
In the second situation, the Russia-Ukraine battle and sanctions would certainly escalate so much that the global supply and demand for crude oil and other major commodities can’t keep speed.
Because of this, prices would enhance this year, forcing the US Federal Reserve and other major economies to ramp up interest rates in a higher rate than in the first scenario, just before reducing them next year amid increasing indications of a recession, he or she said.
In that case, Thailand’s growth would slow this particular and next year while inflation would stay high before declining next year, Mr Krisada added.
In the worst-case scenario, the polarisation between an US-led Traditional western bloc and a competitor bloc led simply by Russia and The far east would be more severe.
Clashes would be more complicated, sparking bouts of economic downturn alternating with bursts of growth depending on the intensity of the motion between the two opposing blocs, Mr Krisada said.
As a result, energy, as well as commodity prices would certainly jump leading to shortages and potentially wreaking havoc on the Thailänder economy.