Zhou said firmly that the PLA would not take the initiative against Okinawa, even if Beijing gave orders to gain Taiwan back by force.
“It’s a stupid and nonsense tactic, because attacking Okinawa will immediately activate the US-Japan security treaty, providing Washington and Tokyo with legitimacy to join with other regional allies to target China,” he said.
“The PLA will only make a counter strike against Okinawa once some of the bases on the island open fire on Chinese troops.”
Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China, said Tokyo’s deep concern was caused by its proximity to the Taiwan Strait, a powder keg that could be triggered by Beijing and Washington.
“Almost all the Japanese populations are anxious about the stability of Taiwan Strait, because they believe the Taiwan Strait and the East China Sea have a bearing on Japan’s national security and territorial sovereignty,” Shi said.
Observers said they expected China would move to establish a high-level military dialogue mechanism with Japan and South Korea for better communications between their air defence identification zones in the East China Sea.
The system would be similar to the China-India military communication channel which involves everyone from central commanders to frontline officers to manage border disputes.
An insider familiar with military diplomacy said Beijing would approach Washington’s key regional allies one by one, in a repeat of its strategy when dealing with rival claimants in the South China Sea territorial disputes.
“Unlike the US, China prefers mutual dialogues rather than multinational talks, as it’s hard to push all countries to compromise based on one issue,” said the insider, who asked not to be named because of the issue’s sensitivity.
“For example, Japan and the Philippines would have different appeals when dealing with China.”
Shi said he was pessimistic about the future of the Taiwan issue, with no sign that China or the US was prepared to compromise.
“Worse, the risk of a conflict is not just [that it could] be caused by frontline confrontations between the two militaries, [it could] also be driven by provocative policies made by the top decision makers,” he said.
Ni Lexiong, a professor in the political science department at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, said a lack of communication and understanding between the two superpowers could escalate from “silent treatment” into “a real fight”.
“The damage has been done. It’s irreversible to resume a relationship once both sides are all accused of being hurt by each other deeply,” Ni said.
This article was first published on SCMP.