US-China trade war: Who blinks first to negotiate tariffs?

Foreign state media reported that the United States had been attempting to start tax negotiations with Beijing in the first morning of Thursday.

The rest of the world had been anticipating it because astronomically high tariffs, including up to 245 % on some Chinese imports to the US, stifle trade between the world’s two largest economy, raising the possibility of a crisis.

According to a post on Yuyuantantian’s social media account affiliated with China Central Television (CCTV ), President Donald Trump’s administration has used a number of channels to reach Beijing.

Unknown people with knowledge of the situation were referenced in the statement less than a week after Trump claimed talks between the two countries were already taking place, a proposal Beijing after refuted.

In Thursday’s article, Yuyuantantian stated that” China has no need to speak to the United States.” The United States must be the more restless group at this point in terms of agreements, according to the statement.

As each area refuses to open up conversations in front of the public, the statement comes after a series of arguments and denials from both China and the US.

Instead of deciding whether or not the conversations does occur, it should be decided when, under what circumstances, and at what time.

Researchers see the fight as a game of meat between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who are secretly working to stop the trade war from escalating.

According to Ja Ian Chong, associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore,” I expect some of this back-and-forth because neither Washington nor Beijing wants to appear to be the part that’s giving in.”

There is some overriding reward to de-escalate, though, so it would be to the overall gain of both sides.

Wen-Ti Sung, an academician at the American Centre on China in the World, puts it another method:” It’s like two race vehicles going at each other: whoever swerves first may be perceived as the weaker of the two parties. And neither group wants to appear soft at this time.

Thus, the chief who acknowledges being the first to start discussions on tariffs would be seen as the one who compromises his position in negotiations.

Whoever appears helpless loses negotiation leverage, according to Mr. Sung. The opposing side is perceived as being more eager, according to both sides.

In this unique stalemate, where both parties want the same outcome but neither wants to be the one to suggest it, there is intentional ambiguity: the intentional use of claims or phrases that are so ambiguous that each party could conceivably argue that they are in the right.

Mr. Sung points to this strategy as an argument for Yuyuantantian’s Weibo article.

This is Beijing, he says,” trying to find a way to use word game to slowly lower both sides ‘ chances of falling off this increase spiral.”

When a third party facilitates, offering both flanks an off-ramp, one can avoid this meat game. The other choice, according to Mr. Sung, is to have a “much looser understanding of what” the other side has reached out” means.

In that way, the area that actually comes to the table first can also refer to it as a reaction rather than the first move.

In the case of Trump and Xi, it would also suggest that both leaders had launch price negotiations if they both claimed to have won the trade war in some way.

Ok, the magnification are crucial. De-escalation is one thing, as Mr. Chong points out, but another major concern for Trump and Xi is to “deliver a win for their home people.”

Trump naturally wants to demonstrate that he has forced Beijing to surrender. And Xi probably wants to show his individual people and the world that he’s been able to make Trump more fair, reasonable, and accommodating, according to Mr. Chong on the People’s Republic of China area.

Both rulers are dealing with tariff-induced headwinds on the home front. As new data revealed the US economy contracted for the first time since 2022, Trump struggled to suppress worries of a recession this year.

Xi has reassure China’s populace that he can survive the trade war and defend an now struggling economy post-pandemic, who was already grappling with consistently low usage, a property crisis, and unemployment.

Trump and Xi both acknowledge that at this stage in the trade war, either area will no longer have a winner-takes-all advantage, according to Mr. Sung.

Trump is trying to find a agreement point where China may allow him to have just enough winning, specifically for domestic purposes because he is aware that he can’t possibly get anywhere near 100 % of what he wants.

China is no reluctant, he continues,” they are very much stuck on what’s the appropriate amount place.”

Mr. Sung described the situation as a” two-level game” for Xi.

The China-led US-China international agreements must be managed, while Beijing needs to preserve ample experience for the Chinese leadership to continue its claim that” the East is rising and the West is declining,” he says.

The East and the West no longer kowtow to one another.

China’s says that it has been attempting to start discussions have not been refuted by the US at the time of writing. However, Mr. Chong believes that the fact that both factors have now made that claim indicates that there is” some sort of contact.”

He claims that” the two factors are talking.” And that indicates that there is a chance that some accommodations might get made.

The US-China marriage, which was steep even before Trump started a trade war, is not about to become stable, though negotiations are still ongoing.

Mr. Chong doesn’t feel under his mouth. For one, he thinks the “posturing” suggests that the two parties have never reached the point “where they are both trying to find a way out .”

Each party may hope that the other side will offer concessions, but they’re going to have this standoff until they can determine which side blinks first.