A year ago, a multimedia report that Ukraine was physically collapsing dominated the world. That common sense undoubtedly played a significant role in persuading US President Donald Trump that his and his administration was afford to treat Ukraine and its leader as roadkill.
Once it became a staple in mainstream media, the drumbeat of doom almost drowned out the counter-narrative portraying Ukraine as a tough underdog that consistently uses techno-judo and dirt as it repeatedly places its far-bulkier foe on the mat.
Funny thing, nevertheless, the Russian win by no means ceased. This year, Jim Garaghty, a Washington Post op-ed information:
In December, Russian troops near Lyptsi, about six yards from the Russian frontier in the Kharkiv area, launched a successful nothing-but-drones assault on a Russian position.
Based on interviews with military officers, the , Ukraine-based Counteroffensive news site , reported on what it called a” first attack of its kind”, involving “dozens of FPV, recon, turret-mounted, and]self-detonating ] drones all working in tandem on the ground and in the air”.
Image being a Russian man, seeing the army advancing upon you, and there’s never a single human being among them.
Some states seeing themselves as physically vulnerable have been paying attention to such achievements, despite others ‘ sensitivity to the bogus “Ukraine decline” tale. Taiwan is one state that is impressed, as we may see below. Other people are Western, Garaghty discovered when he attended the Defense Tech Innovations Conference in Kyiv this month:
Given recent remarks by President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, the United States ‘ extended role as the guarantor of European security then in doubt. The good news for Ukraine is that defence ministries in Europe, mostly from Nordic nations and the Baltics, are present and taking advantage of the irrational pace of change in battle systems.
However, as for Russia, The Economist in an article entitled” How Vladimir Putin plans to execute Donald Trump” says in its February 18 concern that the Russian increases mostly
were in the war’s initial stages. In April 2022, following Russia’s retreat from the north of Ukraine, it controlled 19.6 percent of Ukrainian territory, its deaths ( dead and wounded ) were possibly 20, 000. Now Russia occupies 19.2 percentage and its deaths are 800, 000, reckon European sources. … More than half of the 7, 300 tanks]Russia ] had in storage are gone. Of those that remain, just 500 may be reconditioned immediately. By April, Russia does work out of its T-80 vehicles. It lost half as numerous artillery methods last year as it did the previous two years. … Double-digit inflation has been fueled by the redistribution of resources from creative sectors to the military advanced. Interest charges are 21 percentage.
preventing the Russians from leaving the Black Sea
A February 13 statement on X/Twitter claimed that US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had just said in Brussels that the United States was  , unprepared , to encounter Russia– especially at sea. Hegseth’s formal record of the push meeting does not support the assertion that he said that, but the post received over eight million views, including a retweet by a Ukrainian activist who boasted:”…
There is only one solid seafaring nation in the world. And that is Ukraine.
Serhii sternenko
That is a big exaggeration, of training. However, it is true that Ukraine, which is still fighting Russian invading the Black Sea Fleet on land and sea after three years, has largely used sea drones to force its retreat.
Additionally, those robots prevented Russia from imposing a ban on Ukrainian slots, keeping rice from entering international markets.
The challenge of the , Black Sea , has become one of Ukraine’s most dramatic successes in its war against Russia. Ukraine has forced the Russian Black Sea fleet to continue its surrender, pushing it to travel important resources far from dominated Crimea, despite lacking a proper army.
Ukraine offers a framework to another David nations facing Goliath foes by harnessing domestic-driven innovation and military ingenuity. Both Taiwanese and European states who are concerned about countering a pending Chinese invasion are well aware of this.
” We don’t have as many human resources as Russia” , , said , Alex Bornyakov, Ukraine’s deputy minister of digital transformation. ” They fight, they die, they send more people, they don’t care – but that’s not how we see conflict. For Ukraine’s frontrunners, swift technological innovation remains a major goal”.
Ukraine’s ability to outmaneuver Russia, possibly on property and beyond question at ocean, hinges on continuous development. With Moscow releasing new weapons approximately every six months, Kyiv has had to create and build countermeasures just as fast.
According to , Kateryna Bezsudna, co-founder and CEO of Defense Builder, a Russian security software company pedal, this cycle forces constant adaptation and the rapid deployment of asymmetrical solutions.
Raining on Moscow’s victory parade
Russia expected a swift win, envisioning a victory parade in , Kyiv , just weeks after launching its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Instead, things have gotten worse for Moscow as the war drags on, most notably in the Black Sea.
At the war’s outset, Ukraine’s navy was virtually nonexistent, having lost most of its fleet when Russia seized Crimea in 2014. Its only major warship, the frigate , Hetman Sahaidachny, was scuttled by Ukrainian forces in February 2022 to prevent its capture.
However, Ukraine has transformed the Black Sea battlefield by using asymmetric warfare, including naval drones, coastal strikes, coastal strikes, and aerial attacks, to force Russia to retreat and reclaim strategic control of its waters.
Ukraine has focused on rebuilding its navy with a fleet of drones, making , sea drones , a cornerstone of its Black Sea strategy. When Russia attempted to blockade Ukrainian shipping,  , Ukraine , quickly responded with sea drone strikes to neutralize the threat. Even after Russia’s navy , retreated , from occupied Crimea to the Russian mainland, Ukrainian sea drones continued to pursue and strike Russian vessels.
In August 2023, Ukraine launched a sea drone , attack , on Russia’s Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk, nearly 600 km from Odesa. Ukraine has been able to damage Russian naval assets by using unmanned surface vehicles ( USVs ) while reducing the risk to its personnel.
Ukraine’s sea drones have been engaging and striking , Russian helicopters over the Black Sea. Ukrainian , Magura V5 drones , armed with heat-seeking missiles shot down two Russian Mi-8 helicopters and damaged a third off the coast of Crimea, Kyiv said, adding that it was the first time a naval drone had successfully targeted and knocked out an aircraft.
The Ukrainian military has increasingly modified its sea drones for multi-role capabilities, adding missile launchers and other weapons to enhance their effectiveness. On January 5, Ukrainian USVs also launched kamikaze drones from the Black Sea,  , striking , Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense systems in Kherson Oblast, each valued at$ 15–$ 20 million.
Serhii Kuzan, former adviser to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense and head of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, noted that Russia is increasingly wary of using significant resources to defend the symbolic Kerch Bridge from Ukrainian sea drones.
” Russia is employing every means at its disposal to protect the Crimean Bridge from damage. Vladimir Putin and Russian logistics rely a lot on this illegally constructed structure in temporarily occupied Crimea,” Kuzan asserts.
The Kerch Bridge, which connects the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula to the Russian mainland. Photo: Wikimedia Commons
Kuzan points out that” Moscow has constructed an extensive defense system around the bridge, including protection from both air and sea threats.” The variety of air defense systems in use is the Ukrainian Armed Forces ‘ main issue. Around the bridge, the Russians have constructed a number of layers of these defenses.
” Russia has fortified its defenses on the water with barges and boom barriers, along with constant naval and aerial patrols”, Kuzan explains. ” Helicopters, in particular, have been effective for some time against Ukraine’s naval drones”. However, this is changing now that Russian helicopters are being replaced by Ukrainian sea drones.
According to Samuel Bendett, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, “Ukraine and many other navies around the world are incorporating various USV technologies and strategies into their operations. It’s very likely that the lessons learned by Ukraine during this conflict regarding the use of various USVs will influence how the Ukrainian navy will evolve in the future.
The Black Sea conflict demonstrates how an asymmetrical strategy can reshape the power balance. Despite having virtually no fleet, Ukraine has managed to cripple Russia’s navy using limited resources.
Grant Shapps, a former British Defense Secretary, called out Russian losses in the Black Sea last year:” Putin’s continued illegal occupation of Ukraine is exacting a massive cost on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet which is now functionally inactive. Russia has been sailing the Black Sea since 1783, but it is now reliant on port to hold its ships. And even there Putin’s ships are sinking”!
Pressure is mounting on the ground as a result of Ukraine’s continued development of drone warfare at sea. Here’s the latest from Crimea:” An alert has been declared over the threat of unmanned surface vessel ( USV ) attacks near Cape Tarkhankut. Russian forces claim that these vessels are where the Ukrainian military is launching FPV drones.
Others are watching
“NATO, with its many maritime nations, includes states with limited naval forces – such as the Baltic countries”, Kuzan said. The experience of Ukraine serves as an illustration of how these countries could strengthen their defenses against potential Russian aggression in the Baltic Sea.
Beyond smaller states, Ukraine’s use of naval drones also presents critical insights for larger naval powers, which must now reassess their strategies due to emerging technologies. This conflict serves as a lesson for larger naval powers, highlighting the necessity to update their naval warfare doctrines by considering the use of modern naval drones, Kuzan said. In upcoming conflicts,” They will be able to effectively deploy or counter enemy naval drones by understanding the benefits and threats of these technologies.”
Russia is attempting to imitate Ukrainian strategies.
Taiwan: a case study
Taiwan has been closely watching Ukraine’s innovations– and vice versa.
Taiwan already benefits from US assistance and has its own cutting-edge defense sector that tests both surface and underwater maritime drones, Kuzan noted.
One example is Taiwan’s Smart Dragon underwater drone, which is reportedly equipped with torpedo systems.
Taiwan’s new ‘ Smart Dragon ‘ unmanned underwater vehicle ( UUV). Image: X Screengrab
The next step in the development of Ukrainian maritime drones might be to incorporate torpedoes, according to Kuzan.  , Taiwan , excels in hardware production but struggles with design and system integration. However, ongoing joint ventures with US firms and government-backed initiatives aim to bridge these gaps.
Kuzan also suggested that Ukraine and Taiwan could benefit from a greater level of military cooperation. ” If the opportunity and necessity arise, Ukraine could potentially sell to, or exchange its military technologies with, Taiwan”, he said. ” This would allow both countries to enhance their capabilities”.
According to Treston Wheat, chief geopolitical officer at Insight Forward, a geopolitical risks consultancy, and adjunct professor at Georgetown University, Taiwan has a fundamentally different security landscape from Ukraine, especially given its legislative politics and defense posture.
” The legislature leans more pro-Chinese and is planning to cut the defense budget in 2025″, Wheat explained. ” Additionally, much of Taiwan’s defense strategy has focused on holding off China long enough for the US to establish its position”.
This reluctance is also true for asymmetric warfare strategies, which Ukraine has successfully used to combat a larger adversary. Wheat noted that” Taiwan is significantly less inclined than Ukraine to pursue an asymmetric approach.” While there are important lessons to be learned about integrating modern technologies like drones from Ukraine, they are unlikely to be put into practice.
However, analysts believe that adopting asymmetric warfare and drone technology is essential as Taiwan prepares for a potential conflict with China, which is a lesson that is reinforced by Ukraine’s successes in the Black Sea. A recent , report , from the Center for Naval Analyses emphasized the importance of drones in countering superior forces, urging Taiwan to dramatically scale up its production of unmanned systems.
While Taiwan has begun expanding its drone capabilities—forming a National Drone Team and developing an unmanned “kill chain” — its projected stock of 3, 200 drones by 2028 pales in comparison with Ukraine’s 100, 000 drones acquired in 2023 and its one-million-drone production goal for 2024. Kevin Pollpeter, the report’s lead author, stresses that Taiwan must think bigger, particularly by integrating uncrewed surface and underwater vessels to disrupt a Chinese amphibious assault.
Taiwan may not yet fully grasp the asymmetric tactics that have helped Ukraine survive in the Black Sea, but the lessons are clear. Smaller states facing powerful adversaries must realize that innovation under pressure, rather than sheer force, will be the key to their survival, as unmanned systems have done in Ukraine.
Still unbeaten
Meanwhile, Whatever comes of war-ending negotiations, starting with President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Washington scheduled for Febuary 28, it’s important , to remember that Ukraine has not been beaten. Far from it, the country is still fighting valiantly three years after Putin’s invasion.
When he embeds with Ukrainian troops on the frontlines, David Kirichenko is a Ukrainian-American reporter-activist and security engineer who carries along bags of donated weapons. He’s also an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank. Follow him on X /Twitter @DVKirichenko
After returning from a night drone bombing mission in Chasiv Yar last summer, the author and members of the Ukrainian unit Yasni Ochi. Source: David Kirichenko
This is an updated and expanded version of a post-Paradise article that Pacific Forum previously published.
