“ASEAN unity is needed to formulate the way forward,” declared Indonesia’s leader Joko Widodo, also known as “Jokowi”, during the closing hours of this year’s Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting held on the island of Labuan Bajo.
“But the issue of Myanmar must not hinder the accelerated development of the ASEAN community, because this is what we have been waiting for,” he added in his chairman statement in a bid to rally the bloc amid the failure so far to staunch the debilitating civil war in Myanmar.
Some of his ASEAN colleagues, however, were more openly frustrated with the lack of any meaningful progress in collectively resolving one of the most violent conflicts seen in years in their own backyard. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim discussed how as many as 200,000 people, many from the persecuted Rohingya Muslim minority group, have sought refuge in Malaysia in recent years.
“ASEAN has not been able to resolve most problems, contentious ones,” Anwar, a reformist who won Malaysia’s leadership after spending decades in the opposition and years in jail, told his fellow leaders.
“We are stuck with the principle of non-intervention…Yes, there is non-interference but we will have to then have a new vision that could give us some flexibility to navigate and maneuver the way forward,” he added, underscoring how the insistence on unanimity has paralyzed the regional body.
Meanwhile, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, who has placed ASEAN at the heart of his foreign policy agenda, called on his fellow leaders to be more decisive and unified in the face of common challenges, including festering disputes in the South China Sea that puts certain bloc members at odds with each other and often in conflict with China.
“The ASEAN of today must be better than the ASEAN of yesterday. For ASEAN to succeed, ASEAN must be the master of its future,” the Filipino president said as regional leaders sought to map out a new long-term vision for ASEAN.
Marcos Jr added the importance of demonstrating actual “ASEAN centrality” beyond semantics by showing the world how “we are able to respond effectively to geopolitical and geo-economic challenges as a cohesive [force].”
For decades, Indonesia, the cradle of the global “Non-Aligned Movement” (NAM) under Sukarno, was the only major regional player which placed ASEAN at the heart of its foreign policy agenda.
On two occasions, however, the Southeast Asian giant was relegated to the sidelines, first after the collapse of the Suharto regime, which came on the back of the massive 1997-98 economic meltdown and subsequently a long period of political uncertainty, and, more recently, during the early years of Jokowi, who prioritized nation-building over foreign policy.
Last year, however, Indonesia reassumed its mantle of international leadership during its presidency of the Group of 20 (G20) nations. In many ways, the prestigious position marked a new era of global diplomacy for Jokowi, who even tried to mediate the Ukraine conflict and facilitate a détente between China and the United States.
As ASEAN’s chairman, Indonesia has considerable influence. For starters, the regional body’s chairmen have the prerogative to shape the annual policy agenda of ASEAN, curate its set of priorities and, when divisions emerge, unitarily issue a robust “chairman’s statement” to set out a roadmap for diplomatic resolution of any major crisis.
If history is a guide, Indonesia can play an effective proactive role in the region. The last time it was the rotational chairmanship of ASEAN, Indonesia successfully mediated between two member states on the throes of war; in fact, it even convinced the disputing parties, Thailand and Cambodia, to resolve their border disputes through international arbitration.
A year later, Indonesia also prevented an intra-ASEAN conflagration following Cambodian strongman Hun Sen’s controversial chairmanship of the regional body, when ASEAN members failed to issue a joint communique for the first time in the grouping’s history due to disagreements on whether to include the South China Sea disputes in the regional agenda.
In response, Indonesia rallied regional support for the so-called “six points principles’, which emphasized the need for an effective ASEAN stance on the maritime disputes.
Fearing the regional body’s marginalization amid a brewing New Cold War, Indonesia has over the last decade advocated for a new document that asserts “ASEAN centrality” in shaping the Indo-Pacific. The upshot was the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP), which seeks to enhance the regional body’s role in mediating and navigating Sino-American rivalry in the region.
Barely halfway into its current ASEAN chairmanship, Indonesia has made it clear that the regional body is at a crossroads. Over the past two years under the aegis of Jokowi’s leadership, the bloc has pressed the junta in Myanmar to follow the ASEAN-brokered “Five Point Consensus”, which seeks to restore peace and democratic politics in the Southeast Asian nation.
Ahead of its assumption of the regional leadership, Jokowi made it clear that more draconian measures, including the full expulsion of junta-ruled Myanmar, should be on the table.
“We were deeply concerned with ongoing violence in Myanmar and urged the immediate cessation of all forms of violence and the use of force to create a conducive environment for the safe and timely delivery of humanitarian assistance and inclusive national dialogues,” ASEAN leaders said in a joint statement.
Jokowi himself was more forthcoming. “I must speak candidly. On (the) implementation of the [Five Point Consensus], there has not been significant progress,” he said, emphasizing the need for “ASEAN unity” to “decide on the next steps”, including whether to expel junta-ruled Myanmar and/or to formally engage the exiled democratic government representing Myanmar at the United Nations.
ASEAN Secretary General Kao Kim Hourn was also relatively candid, lamenting how “[f]rom the ASEAN side, there is a strong desire to assist Myanmar but it is not easy.”
“What we should be doing is to ensure that violence is eliminated. That is the bottom line,” he added, underscoring the need for sustained commitment to resolving the issues since “Rome was not built overnight.”
ASEAN founding members Malaysia and the Philippines also called on the region to step up to challenges in its own backyard in order to reclaim centrality in shaping the Indo-Pacific. Malaysia’s Foreign Minister Zambry Abdul Kadir echoed Anwar by emphasizing the need for the regional body “to come as a force together” lest it remains ineffectual in addressing the crisis in Myanmar.
Marcos Jr, who had just arrived from earlier trips to the White House and the coronation of King Charles III in London, warned of broader threats to regional security in a veiled criticism of China and Russia.
“Today, ASEAN faces a complex geopolitical environment which includes rivalries amongst great powers, climate change and technological disruptions, amongst others. ASEAN itself is not immune to its own challenges as we continue to navigate our differences in the region towards a general consensus of action,” Marcos said.
More specifically, Marcos also highlighted rising tensions in the South China Sea and emphasized the “necessity to resolve all sovereignty and jurisdictional issues pertaining to the South China Sea by peaceful means without resort to force.”
In their joint statement, ASEAN leaders welcomed “the initiative to expedite the [Code of Conduct] negotiations” to more effectively manage the South China Sea disputes, namely through “develop[ing] guidelines for accelerating the early conclusion of an effective and substantive COC.”
Jokowi, in his chairman’s statement, called on disputing parties to manage their disputes with self-restraint and in accordance with international law.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on Twitter at @Richeydarian