The time is not ripe

The time is not ripe

It doesn’t look like former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra — in self-exile abroad — will be celebrating the Songkran festival in Thailand next month after all, according to her fiercest critic responsible for her downfall.

Dr Warong Detkitvikrom, chairman of the Thai Pakdee Party, who has shown he isn’t known as the “buster of rice pledging corruption” for nothing, recently chimed in on why he thinks Yingluck will be missing during the festivities.

There is no love lost between Dr Warong and Yingluck, with the former having made a name for himself as the whistle-blower who exposed the rice-pledging scandal under her government.

The rice-pledging scheme from 2011 to 2014 set several precedents, the most damning of which was that it was the largest rice market intervention programme in Thai history.

The maths and logic behind the scheme begged more questions than it answered. The Yingluck administration bought rice from farmers at well above the market price without setting any limit on the amount purchased. The government subsequently ran up losses in excess of hundreds of billions of baht.

Yingluck fled the country in 2017 just before the Supreme Court sentenced her to five years in jail for failing to stop fake and corruption-plagued government-to-government rice sales.

The end of the Pheu Thai Party-led government, brought about by the military coup in 2014, saw the scheme come to an immediate halt with roughly 18.6 million tonnes of rice remaining.

On Sept 10, 2018, the Prayut Chan-o-cha administration sold 17.8 million tonnes or 95.7% of that total, generating revenue of about 146 billion baht.

After Pheu Thai returned to power following the 2023 general election, the administration tried to prove some of the rice in the pledging scheme was still in saleable condition despite being more than a decade old.

Dr Warong, however, attacked the government’s bid to vouch for the old rice as a cheap attempt to achieve political gain.

“Anyone with an ounce of common sense knows that 10-year-old rice is not fit for consumption,” he said.

According to him, the ruling party had gone to great lengths to pull the stunt by getting figures, including Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai, to eat the rice that had visibly turned yellow, an act which was apparently intended to whitewash the rice-pledging programme.

The Public Warehouse Organisation held an auction to offload the rice early last year. Bidders had to submit documents certifying their qualifications by the end of January last year and tender bids on Feb 8. But the auction was cancelled on Jan 30 for unknown reasons.

Meanwhile, Yingluck has remained in exile, although there is much speculation she may be preparing for a homecoming after her older brother Thaksin Shinwatra — another convicted former prime minister — returned in 2023. His jail term was then commuted, and he was paroled in February last year.

Thaksin, speaking at a Feb 9 birthday party thrown in honour of veteran politician and his steadfast ally, Suwat Liptapanlop, said Yingluck’s path back to Thailand before Songkran was strewn with insurmountable obstacles.

“It’s a matter of circumstances. Many factors exist which have rendered Yingluck unable to return [in time for Songkran].

“That she will come back this year at all is something to be considered. I so wish she had come back yesterday,” the former premier said.

However, Dr Warong said he believed Yingluck will not return anything soon. He outlined reasons Yingluck will remain overseas for a long while.

In his Facebook on Feb 11, Dr Warong wrote under the headline: “Yingluck’s Unlikely Comeback In Stride,” that Thaksin himself has unknowingly made it difficult for his sister to secure easy passage and be eligible for similar legal privileges that he enjoyed on his return.

Thaksin is facing a National Anti-Corruption Commission probe over his extended stay in a premium ward at the Police General Hospital for treatment before being granted parole.

He still faces charges for lese majeste and Computer Crime Act violations and needs court permission to travel abroad.

With Thaksin heavily embroiled in the premium ward saga, Yingluck is bound to encounter pressure if she seeks a similar jail term reduction and parole.

“Thaksin has created the mess. Does anyone honestly think [Yingluck] will have it easy?” Dr Warong said.

He added that it would be nonsensical to claim ill health and advanced age as grounds for commuting her jail sentence since Yingluck does not have a history of serious illnesses and is not old enough to get a jail term reduction.

The Corrections Department and any physicians associated with the justice administration wouldn’t vouch for her. The agency and several such physicians have found themselves under investigation in connection with Thaksin’s hospital treatment.

If Yingluck pushed the legal boundaries and applied for detention at home in lieu of a prison stay, it would only remind people of the Thaksin debacle.

“Public outrage will only intensify.

“Thaksin has squandered all the privileges,” Dr Warong said.

A game of cat and mouse

When a politically sensitive decision is delayed, it’s rarely just about procedure.

The move by the Department of Special Investigation’s (DSI) special cases board to postpone its decision on whether to launch a probe into allegations of collusion and bloc voting in last year’s Senate election is a strategic play, according to observers.

Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai, who chairs the board, said the delay is necessary as the DSI needs more time to gather information from the Election Commission (EC) before making a decision.

The special cases board is now scheduled to meet on March 6, just over a week after its Feb 25 meeting, to determine whether alleged Senate election collusion warrants a special investigation, said Mr Phumtham.

For the case to be classified as a special one, approval from two-thirds of the 22-member DSI board is required.

The allegations are believed to be directed at the so-called “blue faction” senators — those accused of being affiliated with the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT), the second-biggest government coalition member.

The Senate holds considerable power to screen and endorse members of public independent agencies, while a constitutional amendment requires the approval of one-third of the Senate, not just a simple majority, to pass.

The BJT is said to have around 140 senators ready to support its interests. This gives the coalition party a significant advantage when key legislation is up for debate in parliament.

The “blue faction” is also seen as a major obstacle to charter amendment bids by both Pheu Thai and the main opposition People’s Party.

Both parties led efforts to simplify and expedite the referendum process, needed to be undertaken in case a wholesale charter rewrite is in order, by eliminating the double-majority rule. However, the Senate voted to reinstate the double-majority requirement for a charter referendum.

The Senate’s move effectively stalled the public referendum bill and made it unlikely that a charter rewrite would be completed before the next general election in 2027.

Pheu Thai needs allies in the Senate, and some believe the DSI is being used as a tool to pressure the BJT and the senators to shift the Senate from “blue” to “red,” the color associated with Pheu Thai, which virtually has no senators on its side.

There is a list of reserve senators, some of whom are thought to belong to the “red” camp, to fill vacant seats should a number of blue senators lose theirs as a result of the DSI investigation.

Prior to the DSI postponing its decision this week, rumours suggested that dozens of senators might be disqualified and replaced.

Analysts see the board’s decision to invite the EC to provide information as a sign that behind-the-scenes negotiations are underway to secure seats for some pro-Pheu Thai people.

Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok’s Institute, said power brokers are working behind the scenes as the board waits out the week.

He suggested that Thaksin Shinawatra and Newin Chidchob, believed to be de facto leaders of Pheu Thai and BJT, respectively, are likely negotiating a deal that benefits both sides as neither of them wants to engage in a full-blown conflict with one another.

According to Mr Stithorn, a compromise will likely be reached in which no blue-affiliated senators are disqualified for election fraud.

One possible approach is that some senators may step down, citing health reasons, allowing reserve senators to take their place. Another option is for certain senators to vote in favor of Pheu Thai on key issues.

With 138 of the 200 senators believed to be on BTJ’s side, the party may be willing to trade some of them in exchange for favours while maintaining a simple majority in the Senate, Mr Stithorn added.

Even if they lost 37 senators, the BTJ would still retain a majority, allowing them to maintain leverage in political bargaining with Pheu Thai.

“The postponement of the board meeting carries significant political implications, setting the stage for negotiations between the ‘big boss’ and the ‘headmaster,’ he said, apparently referring to Thaksin and Mr Newin.

“Neither side wants an outright confrontation, as they still rely on each other [to pursue political interests]. However, neither wants to be dominated by the other,” he said.

The political scientist also speculated that a swap of ministerial posts could follow once the Senate issue is settled, with Pheu Thai potentially eyeing the interior minister post currently held by Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul. Mr Anutin could then move to the Public Health Ministry, which he ran during the Prayut Chan-o-cha administration.

The Interior Ministry holds significant influence over political networks across the country, and Pheu Thai is eager to reclaim the ministry and consolidate political power through local administrative agencies ahead of the next general election, he said.

According to Mr Stithorn, negotiations between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai are unlikely to end anytime soon.