In order to regain its lost reputation in occasion for the upcoming general election, which is less than three years ahead, the ruling Pheu Thai Party will go to great lengths to try to restore its support. But will it thrive?
Some watchers are now speculating on the quick but silent gains the second-ranked coalition partner, the Bhumjaithai Party, is making.
In terms of sizing and supremacy, Bhumjaithai is well-positioned to challenge Pheu Thai in the upcoming elections, which suggest that Anutin Charnvirakul, the ruling party’s leader, will retake the place of the ruling party in the lead elections.
Pheu Thai is portrayed as the party’s leader in the conservative bloc, which is currently led by the main opposition, the Move Forward Party ( MPF), who won the previous year’s election and is now the party’s head of the liberal democracy movement.
Pheu Thai struggles to reestablish itself and expand, according to an analyst, which makes this chance unquestionable.
The researcher speculated that Pheu Thai’s strategy may prove insufficient in light of its declining poll results to beat its competitors.
In regions where it has a significant influence over voters, the group has been attempting to rekindle its relationship with powerful individuals in local politics. Pheu Thai appears to be betting on “big gets” in the electoral system in the upcoming elections.
At play are 400 district votes and 100 party-list tickets.
To become a majority in parliament, the scientist predicted Pheu Thai would need to win at least 200 district seats and 50 listing ones.
But what stands between Pheu Thai and more than doubling next year’s election characters are the MFP’s rapid increase in opinion surveys, Bhumjaithai’s mixed social skills and previous top Thaksin Shinawatra’s “fast track” care by the justice system.
According to a quarterly poll conducted by the National Institute of Development Administration ( Nida ), Pheu Thai’s popularity had continued to decline while that of the MFP and its chief adviser, Pita Limjaroenrat, rose.
Nida study’s estimates on top-scoring events in next year’s general vote turned out to be prescient.
Despite the government’s best efforts to restore the economy’s momentum, the MFP’s impressive profits in the mind surveys have been achieved.
The results showed only 12 % of voters supported Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, a sharp drop from 17 % in the previous survey. Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s youngest daughter, also saw her popularity dip from 6 % to 4.8 %.
Mr Pita, however, maintained his guide over all other excellent ministerial candidates, with a 45 % approval rating, a little increase from 42 % in the last monthly poll.
The researcher attributed Pheu Thai’s scores decline to a lack of well-known policies that helped revive the country’s economy after months of stagnation.
The highly praised premier digital wallet system is more than a year old and has come under fire for limiting what people can buy with their windfall despite entering the recipient registration stage.
The analyst claimed that the more voters will yearn for a change and that they place their hopes on the MFP the longer Pheu Thai waits to finish its immediate financial stimulus programs.
The MFP reaps the benefits in part because it has n’t previously served in the state and, as a result, has no problems that can stifle its brand through the mist, according to the scientist.
The fact that Thaksin returned from self-imposed exile last year to experience justice for the Ratchadaphisek area package has also stung voters negatively.
In order to show gratitude and respect for the imperial pardon, Thaksin may have served the one-year prison term, according to a political critic. Some people saw the lack of action as a blow to the kind of care he received. According to reviewers, Pheu Thai is turning more toward Thaksin as a responsibility as opposed to an advantage.
Bhumjaithai, however, has found itself accused of conducting a secret battle that resulted in many of its followers being elected to the Senate. By law, the vote had to be free of political meddling.
The international and inter-professional party Senate polls fought at district, provincial and finally national amounts produced a striking result in the eye of pundits after so-called “blue-affiliated” winners were linked to Bhumjaithai.
The group has denied manipulating the vote. The analyst claimed that the poll’s portrayal of the blue element’s unusual prowess in gathering enough lobbying power to win its supporters was unmistakable.
In the run-up to the upcoming common election, the researcher predicted that Bhumjaithai will grow stronger. The group is believed to be well on its way to securing yellow-shirt support to help the liberal bloc win that election. If that is the situation, Pheu Thai, then being showcased as a leading neo-conservative group, will be given a run for its income, according to the researcher.
Possibly down, but not out
One analyst is certain that the Move Forward Party’s ( MFP ) days are overnumbered, despite the majority of political observers ‘ reservations regarding the court ruling set for next week’s fate.
In response to the Election Commission’s (EC )’s petition in March to amend Section 112 of the Criminal Code, known as the lese majeste law, the Constitutional Court is scheduled to make its decision on Wednesday.
The ballot agency requested that the court break the MFP because it had violated Section 92 of the natural law governing political parties, which entitles the court to dissolve any party that threatens the democratic monarchy.
Additionally, the EC requested that party executives be prevented from running in upcoming elections and that they be prohibited from holding positions as political party managers for ten years.
The Constitutional Court’s separate decision on January 31 that stated that the MFP’s efforts to amend Section 112 were intended to undermine the democratic king and that the MFP was required to stop all attempts to amend Section 112.
The judges also referenced the previous actions of past MFP head Pita Limjaroenrat and others, including its request for loan to been granted to suspects in der majoreste cases, in their Jan. 31 decision.
In its army, the MFP argued that the EC did not follow rules when it proceeded to consider the group’s breakdown. To enhance its situation, it submitted a declaration by legislation expert Suraphol Nitikraipote.
According to Mr. Suraphol, demonstrating at demonstrations against the law or advocating for changes to the Lese Majority Law are legitimate expressions of free speech in accordance with political principles. MPs ‘ securing loan for der majeste suspects is a decision that the celebration should not be held responsible for.
But, Thanaporn Sriyakul, the director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, has predicted a gloomy results for the MFP, claiming that he cannot see how the group can avoid breakdown based on the facts and the legal perspective.
” But unlike when its predecessor the Future Forward Party ( FFP ) was dissolved in 2020, there will be no’ cobras’ this time around”, Mr Thanaporn said.
The term” Cobra” refers to MPs who commonly cast ballots against their group. This was thought to have been popular during the Palang Pracharath Party’s management, which had a razor-thin majority and needed creatures to assist when a show of hands was required to pass significant policy.
According to Mr. Thanaporn, the Pheu Thai-led government enjoys a strong majority in the House and does n’t need MFP MPs or defectors to switch sides.
According to him, political parties that “fed the cobras” must have already realized that their investments were ineffective because these MPs were unable to win elections on their own, implying that these politicians ‘ election victory was solely attributable to the MFP’s reputation.
The MFP MPs themselves, upon seeing what happened to dissenters, are more likely to add a new party, its contingency option, than walk to any alliance party if the party were to be disbanded, said Mr Thanaporn. If a party is disbanded, its MPs have 60 days in which to join a new party or lose their MP status.
In the event of a dissolution, he is convinced that all MFP MPs will resign from their positions. He continued,” This new outfit will be even stronger in the next poll.
According to Mr Thanaporn, although the MFP chief adviser and former leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, will be banned from politics in the event of a dissolution, his absence will have no impact on the party.
Without Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit and Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, the two key members of the now-defunct-FFP who had been expelled from politics, the MFP was able to survive and prosper, he said.
” After being dissolved]the new party ] will fare much more strongly. The Future Forward Party had 80 MPs, and after it was reincarnated as the MFP, it won 151 seats. He declared that the party will continue to expand its base and win more seats in the upcoming elections.
According to Mr Thanaporn, the MFP appears to have found itself third-generation leaders such as deputy leader Sirikanya Tansakul, Veerayut Karnchuchart and Dechrat Sukkamnerd. These individuals are well-suited to help the party win the following election because of their deep economic acumen.
Sirikanya: Well positioned to lead