MILITARY INTERVENTION?
Pheu Thai and its previous incarnations have won most seats at every election since 2001, but it has had two PMs removed by coups and two by court orders.
Paetongtarn has urged voters to deliver a landslide win to prevent the military-appointed Senate from blocking the party’s route to the top job.
The wildcard in the election is the radical Move Forward Party, Pheu Thai’s closest rival in the opinion polls, which has hoovered up support from young people disaffected with the old parties and who took to the streets in 2020.
MFP rose from the ashes of the Future Forward Party, which stunned the kingdom by finishing third in the 2019 election, before being dissolved by court order.
With the 250 junta-picked senators likely to vote against a Pheu Thai candidate, the party needs to secure 376 out of 500 MPs.
While Pheu Thai is polling well, it is unlikely to secure such a landslide, suggesting it will need to find coalition partners to secure power.
An alliance with the radical MFP could raise the risk of more military intervention in a country that has already experienced a dozen coups since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932.
Political analyst Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee of Chulalongkorn University said that despite Pheu Thai’s assertions to the contrary, a link-up with one of the outgoing military-allied parties looks possible.
“We probably will see them mix with some party from the old government side for the reason of compromise and stability,” she told AFP.