That includes the prospect of a visit to the US by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, which could pave the way for a meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Going by past transits, Lai is likely to meet the chair of the Virginia-based American Institute in Taiwan, a US government-run non-profit that carries out unofficial relations with Taiwan.
The US State Department did not respond to a request for comment.
Taiwan believes the scale of the exercises could be smaller than those in April, the Taiwanese official said.
Chinese warplanes or ships, however, could still cross the Taiwan Strait’s median line and approach close to the island’s contiguous zone that is 24 nautical miles, according to the official and another official briefed on the matter.
“We have made all the preparations,” the first official said.
Chinese state television this month ran an eight-part series on the People’s Liberation Army, some of which focused on Taiwan.
In one episode, an officer on a Chinese warship, apparently broadcasting a warning to a Taiwanese vessel, says: “Your so-called 24 nautical mile line does not exist”.
Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry on Thursday said China had “no reason” to raise tension over Lai’s routine stopovers.
“If China uses this to take provocative actions, it will be China that damages regional peace and security, not Taiwan or the United States,” ministry spokesman Jeff Liu told reporters.
Taipei-based diplomats were divided on China’s likely reaction, according to eight diplomatic and foreign security sources.
One said Beijing and Washington’s bid to improve relations could temper China’s response.
But a senior foreign security source said Beijing would have to put on a show of force given its angry denouncements of the trip.
“They have pretty much backed themselves into a corner and will have to do something,” the source told Reuters.