They will be processed at “holding centres” and then deported, he told reporters, adding that women, children and the elderly would be treated “respectfully.” Reuters could not determine how long they might be detained in the centers. Pakistani citizens who help undocumented migrants obtain false identities or employment will faceContinue Reading
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A study of business leaders by DXC Technology, a leading Fortune 500 global technology services company, has revealed that nearly half (46%) of executives say that technical debt, or…Continue Reading
When Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visits China this week, he will be able to celebrate a figure that previous Australian leaders could only dream of. Over the past year, China has imported more than AU$200 billion (US$127 billion) worth of Australian goods and services.
In August 2023, the Australian Bureau of Statistics put the annual value of goods exports at AU$194 billion and services at AU$9.5 billion. In 2016, the last time an Australian prime minister visited China, the combined figure was less than half the current level at AU$95.6 billion.
Besides buoyant commodity prices and the emergence of new areas of trade such as lithium, exports have reached a record high because the disruptive measures imposed by Beijing in 2020, affecting barley, coal, lobsters and more, have been steadily removed.
Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell says that under the Albanese government’s watch, by September 2023 AU$20 billion of “trade impediments” had been reduced to just AU$2.5 billion.
There is one narrative in Australia, particularly popular among those who championed former prime minister Scott Morrison’s government’s abrasive approach to China relations, that this positive outcome resulted from firm Australian resistance. It suggests that eventually, Beijing had no choice but to “capitulate” under Australian pressure. This narrative is both misleading and self-serving.
It is true that by the end of 2021 Beijing had recognized that its campaign of trade disruption was causing more harm to itself than it was shifting Canberra’s foreign policy positions.
Upon his arrival in January 2022, the new Chinese ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, said he was on a “noble mission” to work with “the Australian government and friends in all sectors … to jointly push the China–Australia relations back to the right track.”
But Australian resolve provides only a partial explanation of the removal of the disruptive trade measures. What triggered Beijing’s actions in 2020 was not a particular policy by the Morrison government, but rather its diplomatic posturing.
After the early Australian moves that disadvantaged China, such as Australia leading the world in banning Chinese technology companies from participating in its 5G rollout in August 2018, and accusations then that Beijing was threatening Australian trade, there was little sign of it.
It was only in early 2020 when the Morrison government began aping the political attacks launched by former US President Donald Trump against Beijing over the Covid-19 pandemic that Beijing took steps against Australian trade.
Beijing wasn’t alone in being taken aback by Australia’s political assault. On Morrison’s call for international health inspectors to be given powers akin to “weapons inspectors.”
Martin Parkinson, the usually reserved and then recently retired secretary of the Australian Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, remarked, “what whizz kid … dreamed up those talking points, what did they think they were going to achieve with that?”
When the Albanese government restored “calm and consistent” diplomacy, little wonder that ministerial visits resumed and trade disruptions began to ease.
A critical ingredient in the restoration of trade ties has been the multilateral trading system, overseen by the World Trade Organization (WTO).
This system, which supports open and competitive global markets, blunted the effects of Beijing’s bans on Australia by facilitating the redirection of exports of Australian coal, barley and other commodities, previously destined for China, elsewhere.
The WTO also provided a neutral forum in which Canberra and Beijing could engage in their disputes relating to barley and wine.
After Washington drove the WTO’s regular appeals body into dysfunction in December 2019, Australia and China both stuck to a rules-based process by joining the workaround to the WTO dispute settlement process, the Multi-Party Interim Arrangement. This meant that neither would appeal an unfavorable WTO panel finding “into the void.”
In the case of barley, the timeline is telling. The WTO panel circulated its final report on Australian barley exports to both parties on March 15 – reportedly in Australia’s favor.
On April 10, Canberra and Beijing announced a deal had been struck in which Beijing would undertake an “expedited review” of the tariffs it had imposed. This led to Chinese tariffs being lifted on August 4.
Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong calculates that Australia “would not have been able to get this outcome without working through the WTO.” Later that month, Trade Minister Farrell farewelled the first shipment of 55,000 tonnes of Australian barley, at a healthy price premium, destined for China.
October brought the news that the same process was in train for wine. On the informal measures still affecting lobsters and beef, Farrell says that warming relations and the experience of the barley episode mean that Australians can “be very confident … that we can resolve all of those outstanding issues.”
Australia’s resistance to Beijing’s attempts at economic coercion was undoubtedly right. But in celebrating the latest trade numbers, when in Beijing Albanese might propose a toast to professional diplomacy and a shared commitment to the multilateral trading system, including an independent, rules-based resolution of disputes. Recommitment to both is the right way forward.
James Laurenceson is Professor and Director at the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney.
This article was originally published by East Asia Forum and is republished under a Creative Commons license.
Gone are the starched tablecloths and upholstered chairs – the new JAG is a much homier space. “To celebrate vegetables, we wanted to build something that feels like a garden house – wood, rattan, greenery, natural light, with a touch of elegance,” like the feeling you get when you visit houses in the countryside two hours’ drive out of Paris, Gillon said.
Gillon himself was born in Normandy and in his fond recollections of his grandmother’s traditional dishes, it’s always the vegetables that stand out. In her pot-au-feu, for instance, the carrots, onions, celeriac, parsnips and Jerusalem artichokes hold the most memories for him. “I have the recipe, but I can never make it the same,” he said.
ReutersUS President Joe Biden has warned China that the US will defend the Philippines in case of any attack in the disputed South China Sea.
The comments come days after two collisions between Filipino and Chinese vessels in the contested waters.
Mr Biden reiterated his “ironclad” defence commitment to the Philippines.
Manila has contested Chinese claims to the waters, cutting floating barriers and inviting media to film what it calls Beijing’s dangerous moves at sea.
Mr Biden’s statement on the South China Sea on Wednesday was his strongest since tensions between Beijing and Manila heated up in recent months.
“I want to be clear — I want to be very clear: The United States’ defence commitment to the Philippines is ironclad. The United States defence agreement with the Philippines is ironclad,” he said.
Signed in 1951, the Mutual Defense Treaty binds the US and the Philippines, its former colony, into defending each other in the event of an armed attack.
“Any attack on the Filipino aircraft, vessels, or armed forces will invoke our Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines,” he added in his speech an the White House on Wednesday, as he welcomed Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
On Sunday, the Philippines said China’s “dangerous manoeuvres” had led to a collision between a China coast guard ship and a Filipino supply boat in an area that falls inside the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). In a separate incident, Manila said a Chinese militia boat “bumped” a Philippine coast guard vessel.
The Filipino boats were on their way to a crumbling navy warship that Manila has marooned at the Second Thomas Shoal to reinforce its claims.
The Philippines’ defence minister, Gilberto Teodoro Jr, said the Chinese boats “intentionally hit” the Philippine vessels and accused China of “distorting the story to fit its own ends”.
Mr Biden echoed these claims, saying the Chinese vessels had “acted dangerously and unlawfully” when the collisions happened.
The Philippines is an important strategic ally of the US as it borders two potential flashpoints in the Pacific – the South China Sea and Taiwan.
Since President Ferdinand Marcos Jr took office in June 2022 and revived the Philippines’ alliance with the US, Filipino authorities have become more aggressive in contesting China’s actions in the South China Sea.
Mr Marcos’ foreign policy is a reversal of the pro-China stand taken by his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, who was criticised for not doing enough to counter Beijing’s aggression in the South China Sea.
Duterte refused to invoke Manila’s legal victory against China in an international tribunal, that said Beijing’s vast claims to almost the entire South China Sea is unfounded.
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Getty ImagesTai chi may help slow down the symptoms of Parkinson’s disease for several years, a Chinese study suggests.
Those who practised the martial art twice a week had fewer complications and better quality of life than those who didn’t, the researchers say.
Parkinson’s is a progressive brain disease which leads to tremors and slow movement, and there is no cure.
Experts say the findings back up previous studies on the benefits of exercise for those with Parkinson’s.
The study, from Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, monitored the health of hundreds of Parkinson’s patients for up to five years.
One group of 147 people practised regular tai chi while another group of 187 did not.
The traditional Chinese exercise combines slow, gentle movements with deep breathing and relaxation.
The charity Parkinson’s UK describes tai chi as a low-intensity physical activity that can “help to lift your mood and help you live well”.
The researchers found that the disease progressed more slowly in the tai chi group on measurements of symptoms, movement and balance.
This group also saw fewer falls, less back pain and dizziness, with memory and concentration problems also lower than in the other group.
At the same time, sleep and quality of life continuously improved.
A previous trial of people with Parkinson’s who practised tai chi for six months found greater improvements in walking, posture and balance than those not on the programme.
Writing in the Journal of Neurology Neurosurgery & Psychiatry, Dr Gen Li and co-authors say their study shows “that tai chi retains the long-term beneficial effect on Parkinson’s disease”.
They say tai chi could be used to manage Parkinson’s on a long-term basis and prolong quality of life, while still helping to keep patients active.
But they also acknowledge that the study is relatively small and could not prove that tai chi was the reason for the positive outcomes experienced by one group.
Prof K Ray Chaudhuri, professor of movement disorders and neurology at King’s College London, said: “It is too early to claim any neuroprotection based on this study, although the positive effects on aspects of motor and non-motor functions are impressive.”
He said ballet had also been found to have similar effects on Parkinson’s.
Prof Alastair Noyce, professor in neurology and neuroepidemiology at Queen Mary University of London, called it “an important study” but said there were limitations in its design, and more trials were needed.
“We already recommend tai chi, as well as other forms of exercise, but understanding which forms of exercise are most beneficial is an important goal to enhance the long-term management of patients,” he said.
JAKARTA- An investigation into the main fairness of Indonesia’s Constitutional Court has been launched into his failure to withdraw from office in a new decision that made it possible for his nephew and the son of President Joko Widodok to work as vice presidential candidates in the upcoming presidential election in February.
Chief Justice Anwar Usman and other justices, who ruled that elected officials can run for president and vice president regardless of age, have been the subject of complaints from a number of civil society organizations, including the Indonesian Legal Aid and Human Rights Association( PBHI ).
Days after the ruling, Prabowo Subianto, a presidential candidate and defense minister, chose Widodok’s eldest son, 36-year-old Solo town mayor Gibran Rakaburning, as his running mate in what is likely to be an intense race against Ganjar Pranowo, the leader of the Indonesian Democratic Party, for the Struggle ( PDI-P ) candidate.
Even members of Prabowo’s personal three-party alliance are uneasy about the way Gibran was forced into the role in what critics allege is an effort to secure a Widoo kingdom before his two-term presidency expires in October of next year.
Since beginning his political career, PDI – P head Megawati Sukarnoputri has resisted expelling Gibran from the ruling group to which he belonged. This is ostensibly to prevent an earlier fight with Widoo and to prevent gaining pity for his son.
However, the majority of researchers think that as the nation approaches election day and pressure mounts on Widodok to abandon his efforts to uphold disinterest, open conflict between the two political heavyweights is unavoidable.
In the Valentine’s Day election the following year, which also features opposition candidate Anies Baswedan, who is still polling in third place, Prabowo sees the very famous president of the United States’ support as crucial to defeating Pranowo. & nbsp,
Usman did withdraw in one complaint, in which the judge rejected requests to lower the age of political and vice presidential candidates from 40 to 36. However, he later joined the majority of magistrates in a contradictory voting that removed the age restriction from elected officials.
Legal experts were perplexed by the highest court in the nation’s appearance, which described the electoral law change as ridiculous, unrealistic, and only advantageous to Gibran.
According to Political Coordinating Minister Mahfud MD, Pranowo’s vice presidential candidate and former Constitutional Court key justice himself,” a judge does not handle a situation that involves their personal interests ,” as well as those of their family members, friends, or political friends.
Mahfud asserted that the Constitutional Court’s primary responsibility was to repeal laws and regulations that are in conflict with the national contract, not to enact new laws, a rule the current bench upheld by refusing to reduce the candidacy age.
Following a bribery scandal that resulted in the release of brother jurist Patrialis Akbar and severely damaged the reputation of an institution that had previously performed with comparative distinction, Usman, 66, was elected to his present position in 2018.
He and two other justices are appointed by the political branch, with three being chosen at the president’s discretion and the Supreme Court at its discretion. Presidential approval is eventually needed for all of the appointments.
Three decades after her first husband’s stroke-related death in May 2022, the Bima, a native of West Nusa Tenggara, wed Idayati, Widodok, as her sister-in-law. At the time, Mahfud felt compelled to clarify:” The chief court’s plan to get married contains neither a legal nor an honest violation.”
The Constitutional Court has today established a three-person respect committee to oversee the work of the nine judges in an effort to increase public trust. Legal sources, however, assert that it will only be able to censure the magistrates on moral grounds and no overturn court rulings.
Former attorney general Marzuki Darusman told Asia Times,” The assumption is that they will just receive a light tap on the forearm.” It won’t be a preventative figure, I assure you.
The new council is made up of top democratic determine Wahiduddin Adams, Bintan Saragih, a former member of the court’s morality committee, and the well-known Jimly Asshiddiqie, who presided over the first Constitutional Court between 2003 and 2008.
However, it will need to demonstrate itself to a dubious constitutional community that is obviously unsure of its capacity to effectively address public concerns about the judge’s actions.
The court will play a vital role in resolving any disputes resulting from the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections, which are likely to be more contentious than common, in addition to addressing legal issues.
Because Asshiddique actively supports Prabowo’s political campaign and notes that he and the defence minister have been friends since they were younger, reviewers are troubled by this.
After his visit, Asshiddique told newsmen,” I’m not a group member and I haven’t been one in the past.” However, I have backed Prabowo for the presidency.
He does have a close relationship with Prabowo’s Great Indonesia Movement Party( Gerindra ) through his son, Robby Asshiddiqie, who serves as the party deputy secretary general, according to those concerned about potential conflicts of interest.
According to Yansen Dinata, executive director of the Public Virtue Research Institute( PVRI ), it is difficult to hope for a fair decision if there is political disagreement among election participants given the Constitutional Court’s current state and the makeup of its honor council.
Yet as Canberra continues to be the focal point of Beijing’s economic coercion and loosens, industry growth andnbsp, & nbsp,
The Anthony Albanese administration has enthusiastically resumed father Scott Morrison’s initiative to increase American exports to more areas in order to counteract perceived over-reliance on China.
Trade Minister Don Farrell has presided over the implementation of free trade agreements with nbsp, India, the UK, and the United Kingdom in just under 18 months in the portfolio. He has also pushed for improvement in conversations with the European Union. & nbsp,
The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership ( CPTPP ) has been joined by the United Kingdom, and Australia’s free trade agreement with ASEAN and New Zealand is being upgraded andnbsp.
Despite these commerce victories, Australia also has a significant Taiwan-shaped hole in its efforts to lessen its reliance on China for exports. Australia’s fourth-largest export location for goods was the Taiwanese economy, which in 2022 sucked in a massive AU$ 30 billion( US$ 19.1 billion ) worth of American goods. & nbsp,
It was more than twice as important as New Zealand and nearly ten times more profitable for American products exporters than the United Kingdom, surpassing actually India and the European Union.
About 40 % of Australia’s total goods exports to the 10 part express ASEAN sector, which has 667 million residents, go to Taiwan, where there are only under 24 million people.
This does not imply that Australia may downplay or reject the significance of free trade agreements with countries like the United Kingdom, the European Union, and India.
Given the size and wealth of the European Union and the Indian markets, as well as the stupendous & nbsp, growth potential, of each, the trade agreements with the latter are likely to have the greatest long-term benefits for Australian exporters.
However, if pursuing a bilateral trade deal with the United Kingdom or bringing it into the CPTPP is worthwhile for Australia, then there is strong monetary evidence in favor of doing the same with Taiwan, an export industry that is significantly more significant for Australians. When examining the overall state of Australia’s industry ties, this Taiwan oversight is especially striking.
Despite shared membership of the World Trade Organization and Asia – Pacific Economic Cooperation ( APEC ), Taiwan is conspicuously absent from Australia’s free trade agreements. Of Australia’s & nbsp, top 10 export destinations & nbsp, in 2022, Taiwan was the only one in which Australian exporters didn’t enjoy the benefits of either a bilateral or regional free trade agreement.
Real, Australia’s exports to Taiwan by worth are dominated by & nbsp, energy and nutrients, which don’t experience higher taxes. But with agricultural imports to Taiwan subjected to average tariff rates of nearly & nbsp, 16 %, a free trade agreement would give Australian primary producers a competitive edge in one of Asia’s & nbsp, wealthiest & nbsp, consumer markets. & nbsp,
Given that it was Australia’s & nbsp, wine growers & nbsp, and & nbsp, lobster fishers & nbsp, that suffered most at the hands of & nbsp, China’s economic coercion, there is a powerful case for gaining better access for Australian agricultural products in reliable export markets like Taiwan.
Regardless of the financial logic, any force for freer trade with Taiwan can’t leave the boundaries of geography.
Getting Taiwan into the CPTPP will probably remain an implausibly long shot given Beijing’s & nbsp, competing bid & nbsp, and & nbsp, opposition & nbsp, to Taipei joining combined with the trade pact’s & nbsp, consensus – based & nbsp, accession process. & nbsp,
But that still leaves opened the option of pursuing a much more reasonable diplomatic free trade agreement with Taiwan. With Australia already Taiwan’s & nbsp, seventh – largest & nbsp, trading partner, this is an option that Taipei & nbsp, also supports.
Having & nbsp, pressured Canberra & nbsp, out of its previous plan to negotiate a free trade agreement with Taipei during the Malcolm Turnbull government, Beijing would oppose moves to formally liberalize trade.
Although & nbsp, Singapore & nbsp, and & nbsp, New Zealand & nbsp, already have free trade agreements with Taiwan, these were signed in 2013 when the more Beijing – friendly Nationalist government was in power and when China wasn’t trying so hard to & nbsp, internationally isolate & nbsp, Taipei. & nbsp,
Despite good criticism from Beijing, the Albanese government doesn’t permit its deal access agenda to get held hostage to Taiwanese government concerns. Not least because Beijing’s enthusiasm for & nbsp, relationship repair & nbsp, probably gives Canberra more license to take positions that China doesn’t like.
Since mid – 2022, Beijing has moved to & nbsp, normalize diplomatic ties & nbsp, and incrementally & nbsp, dismantle trade restrictions & nbsp, despite Canberra continuing to pursue policies that & nbsp, disappoint the Chinese government & nbsp,— everything from & nbsp, securitizing & nbsp, Australia’s critical minerals industry to & nbsp, calling out & nbsp, China’s human rights abuses in the United Nations. & nbsp,
The next 17 months of bilateral relationship maintenance suggest that China didn’t been dissuaded from embracing warmer ties with Australia, despite Beijing’s diplomatic rebukes and secret instructions if it tries to negotiate a free trade agreement with Taipei.
Business plan isn’t entirely driven by economic complementarities in a time when interdependence is being used more frequently. Confidence is important as well. Fortunately, there is a lot of both in the Australia-Taiwan connection. & nbsp,
In addition to the fact that the American and Chinese economies now trade a sizeable amount, increased export dependence on Taiwan carries very little risk of economic coercion.
Strong financial complementarities between the American and Taiwanese economies may bind them together for many years to come. Australia can be sure that Taiwan didn’t use trade relations to advance political agendas, in contrast to China.
Author of the newsletter & nbsp, Beijing to Canberra and Back, which chronicles Australia-China relations, Benjamin Herscovitch is a research fellow at The Australian National University.
This andnbsp, post, and was originally published by East Asia Forum and are being reprinted with permission from Creative Commons.
Anyone who thinks the plunge in Chinese tech stocks has run its course hasn’t been paying attention to Jerome Powell’s utterances in Washington.
There, the Federal Reserve chair is hinting at additional tightening moves as runaway inflation proves hard to defeat. With US bond yields already at 17-year highs, Asia is bracing for any hints from Fed officials about the timing and magnitude of the next interest rate hike, perhaps as soon as November 1.
None more so than investors in mainland China tech stocks, from which foreign funds are tripping over each other to exit. In September alone, US and European funds dumped a net US$1.6 billion of Chinese shares amid $3.5 billion of capital outflows, says data firm EPFR Global.
A disproportionate amount of sell orders are hitting Alibaba Group, JD.com, Tencent Holdings Ltd and other mainland tech juggernauts. That’s despite better news on China’s economic trajectory, increased stimulus efforts and government steps to stabilize a cratering property market.
After six months of decline, China’s gauge of tech equities as at its lowest in more than three years. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon index of mainland American depository receipts is down 20% since early August. The broader CSI 300 index of mainland shares has plunged more than 13% since early August. Even worse, the losses are more likely to continue than stop.
The good news is that President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang are working to reduce financial leverage to reduce the risks of boom-bust cycles. They’re also getting more serious about fixing a troubled property market and giving the private sector more room to breathe after regulatory clampdowns.
In the meantime, though, foreign investors are tripping over themselves to reduce their exposure to China.
Confidence among investors is “likely to stay fragile, while foreign fund outflow could persist near term without meaningful macro improvement, government stimulus step-up and/or additional sustained market liquidity support,” says strategist Laura Wang at Morgan Stanley.
Thomas Gatley, a China analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, notes that Xi’s economy and markets “face two problems that defy quick solutions.” One, of course, is the ongoing property crisis. The other is high global yields threatening to shoot even higher. As this later challenge collides with the former, Chinese growth stocks – tech in particular – are caught in the middle.
“The upward pressure on US Treasury yields is unlikely to ease anytime soon,” Gatley says. “Tight Fed policy, strict lending standards and elevated inflation all argue there is room for yields to move higher absent a near-term US recession. This is particularly bad news for Chinese tech and other growth stocks.”
The reason, Gatley explains, is that “the most exciting market stories this year have been artificial intelligence and electric vehicles, and Northbound Connect investors loaded up on the policy-favored machinery and electronics sector stocks earlier this year as the artificial intelligence and electric vehicle stories boosted sector sentiment.”
Connect holdings in these sectors, he calculates, “rose by a startling 33%” to 32.6 billion shares from 24.5 billion shares over the course of the first six months. Northbound investors, he reckons, bought 36 billion shares in the battery manufacturer CATL in the first 10 months of 2023, for instance, a 54% increase in their exposure. They also scooped up 8 billion shares in leading electric vehicle manufacturer BYD, a 46% increase.
Gatley notes that outflows from onshore equities in recent months “have primarily been investors paring back holdings in the sectors that benefited from the H1 binge.” He adds that the “selloff in China’s growth stories extended well beyond the onshore market.”
Internet platforms in Hong Kong took blows, too, Gatley says, with Tencent and Alibaba each down 15% through August and September, despite strong earnings growth. And European luxury goods firms, which historically benefitted from affluent Chinese consumption and took a step up on the news of reopening, were also hit hard.
At the same time, China’s property stumble has soured global investors’ demand for the gamut of mainland shares. The ongoing default drama at Country Garden, coming two years after China Evergrande Group reneged on payments, has China Inc in the global headlines for all the wrong reasons.
Until “these problems are resolved, it is tough to see foreign investors adding a lot of China exposure,” Gatley says. “The lack of foreign buying constitutes a material drag on onshore markets, given that Northbound Connect turnover accounts for more than 10% of domestic trading.”
Overcoming the drag on liquidity and sentiment, Gatley concludes, “would likely require a very significant reacceleration of nominal growth which seems hard to manage given the continued drag from property and the uninspiring outlook for external demand in the face of European weakness.”
Then there’s the cumulative effect of the most aggressive Fed tightening since the mid-1990s on the US economy. Fallout from the Hamas-Israel conflict could send global oil prices skyrocketing, resulting in even more aggressive rate hikes.
“Bond vigilantes have reacted to the ‘higher for longer’ narrative and fiscal deficit concerns, while supply cuts and geopolitical tensions in the oil market have put upward pressure on prices,” says Seema Shah, chief global strategist of Principal Asset Management.
As global conditions wobble, says economist Robin Brooks at the Institute of International Finance, “markets are bearish on China and, so far, the bears have been right, with data on domestic demand as well as exports painting a weak picture. We too are concerned given the centrality of the property market for growth.”
Going forward, Brooks says, “there are perhaps some signs that growth is stabilizing. Exports have been weighed down by global consumers shifting back to services, something that will pass as Covid front-loading of goods consumption is worked off.” Looking ahead, he adds, “growth may be stabilizing near-term, though there’s clearly medium-term headwinds.”
Supportive government policies “are therefore critical to ensure sustained growth,” Brooks says.
That’s easier said than done, though, as global headlines intensify from all directions. As it “looks like global risks are emerging” from oil prices to dollar volatility, “we don’t see a market bottom [for Chinese A-shares] this year,” says Zhang Chi, strategist at Sinolink Securities.
Goldman Sachs analyst Maggie Wei notes that a sliding yuan and rising dollar only adds to market stability risks. “The unfavorable interest rate spread between China and the US will likely imply persistent depreciation and outflow pressures in coming months,” she explains.
Adding to the sense of disorientation, US 10-year yields are at their highest level since 2007, just before the subprime loan crisis hit.
“The hurdle for a [bond] rally is still high,” write strategists at Barclays. “Despite data continuing to show a resilient economy, the consensus still expects it to slow very sharply over the coming quarters. Repeated misses beg the question whether the consensus has been overly confident about monetary policy being too tight. We argue that policy is barely tight and risks are skewed towards continued upside surprises.”
And how might the People’s Bank of China respond? One risk worth considering, says strategist Chi Lo at BNP Paribas Asset Management, is that the PBOC “normalizes policy prematurely.” If so, mainland growth “could undershoot” this year’s 5% target at a moment when consumer and private sector confidence are “still feeble.”
Political priorities are their own wildcard, says Diana Choyleva at Enodo Economics. “Xi’s priority continues to be to double down on national security, at the expense of growth if necessary,” Choyleva says. “His rigid adherence to his geopolitical and ideological aims, combined with filling his third-term administration with apparatchiks rather than technocrats, is yet another factor that bodes ill for China’s ability to manage” myriad challenges.
China, Choyleva adds, “has reached the end of the road of its debt-fueled growth model and faces a prolonged period of painful adjustment, which we describe as a slow-motion real economy crisis.”
Choyleva concludes that “tech, real estate and consumer sectors are the hardest hit.” Though “we don’t expect the debt work-out to lead to a financial sector meltdown nor a liquidity crunch. But China has a serious solvency problem and can no longer rely on a strong economic expansion to help it outgrow its bad debt problem. Years of wasteful investment have come to haunt it, resulting in serious demand deflation.’’
That problem is now coming back to undermine stocks. Worries that Xi’s tech crackdown might be entering a new phase hardly help. Recent days generated a number of headlines about an investigation into Foxconn Technology Group, one of the biggest employers in China and a vital Apple Inc partner.
At advertising giant WPP Plc, an executive and two former employees have been detained. Earlier this month, a Beijing court charged an executive at Japanese conglomerate Astellas Pharma Inc with suspected espionage.
It’s a bad look at a moment when Xi and Li are arguing China is open for business after the 2020 crackdown that started with Alibaba founder Jack Ma. So is the exodus out of mainland tech stocks, one that is unlikely to slow until US yields stop rising.
Follow William Pesek on Twitter at @WilliamPesek
WeiboStray, unlicensed, and” large” dogs are the target of a crackdown by Chinese authorities.
However, the action has drawn harsh criticism after reports that canines without users are being rounded up and occasionally put to sleep.
It comes after a violent Rottweiler attack last week that left the nation in shock. The girl was two years old.
The young child had her kidneys ruptured, her ribs broken, and her brain covered in wounds. She is said to be secure.
The mother of the child is seen in the incident’s film primarily putting herself between her child and the dog, but the Rottweiler circles the lady and snatches the kid.
The family makes a valiant effort to keep her daughter alive. Armed with a broom and another sizable stick, an employee and cleaner jump to the scene to help with the rescue.
The Rottweiler is finally chased away.
Its user was taken into custody.
However, after some surprising stories came to light, the assault prompted by the battering has been questioned on social media and by puppy owners.
In one instance, security personnel and a tenant killed both of their dogs after breaking into an office without the tenant’s consent.
A school in Liaoning Province reportedly let go of a security guard after he recently brutally attacked and killed an on-campus dog.
Another incident, which has garnered a lot of attention electronically, involved the death of the little, stray dog after it was captured being net-caught in Chongqing. The dog’s” smiling” appearance has sparked a hashtag on social media with the hashtag # XiaoHuang. The dog allegedly pursued a scholar, according to school authorities.
Chinese superstars have also joined the social media debate, claiming that despite how bad the first attack was, the assault across the nation was not necessary.
There are about 40 million errant dogs in the nation, according to the 2021 China Pet Industry White Paper, and this has been viewed as a problem for some time.
The Rottweiler that attacked the kid in Chongzhou, Sichuan Province, was hardly a stray, though. It was let loose and walked up to the mummy inside their housing complex as she was escorting her child to school.
To pay for the boy’s cure, the family has launched a campaign to solicit donations from the general public.
According to statements made by authorities in the Shandong, Jiangxi, and Hubei Provinces, captured stray dogs may be put down if their landlord could not be located.
To quell the growing protest against what some have referred to as unjustified violence against creatures, the town of Hohhot in Inner Mongolia made its own statement, stating that stray dogs may be rounded up but never killed.
Free ropes are being distributed by local governments in some regions as a means of addressing the issue.
Dogs discovered in the capital without documentation would be impounded, according to an immediate notice from a Beijing voluntary dog rescue group to its supporters. It even advised owners of choice or big dogs who are able to emigrate them to designated boarding services and reminded people to be aware of the designated time for dog walking.
Additionally, the statement urged owners to” have a joint mindset” and refrain from” engaging in disputes with legislation enforcement.”
In China, animal ownership laws differ from one local government area to another, and sometimes they are not strictly enforced.
Solid animal cruelty laws that might provide shelter for pets are also absent from the nation.
