Commentary: Foxconn founder Terry Gou’s presidential candidacy may shift Taiwan’s political landscape

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THE FUTURE OF CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS

For a sizeable segment of the Taiwanese electorate, the 2024 election significantly influences the nation’s future stance on cross-strait relations. While the election holds personal significance for Gou, his initial endorsement of the Kuomintang candidate, followed by his independent bid, accentuates the volatile nature of political allegiances and underscores the elevated significance of this presidential contest.

Despite the limited prospect of a Gou-led presidency, the potential significance of his political influence cannot be brushed aside. Securing substantial support before the election might not get him the presidency but could position him as a kingmaker. Such a position might prove instrumental in resolving any deadlock within the opposition, ensuring that Gou’s candidate clinches the presidency.

Gou’s recent campaign efforts display a shrewdness in communication strategies. It involves a play on the phonetic qualities of his Chinese name, implying the English expression of “good timing”. This manoeuvre subtly invites support, suggesting that now is the opportune moment to rally to his cause.

If this envisioned change in governance remains unfulfilled, questions arise about whether Gou’s strategic moves serve the greater good of Taiwan. Given the current state of Taiwan’s political climate, this may be the only time Gou can establish a favourable political position.

Should he drop out of the race and join the opposition party, Gou may secure a place in the new government and a strong position to pursue future political ambitions.

Aligning with opposition parties could lead to a broad coalition achieving victory in January 2024, potentially enabling a peaceful transition into a new Taiwanese administration focused on improving cross-strait relations. Amid heightened tensions with China, reopening proper dialogue channels will contribute to securing a safer climate for continued de facto Taiwanese sovereignty.

Big elections are often won on small margins. Even if Gou only commands 5 per cent to 10 per cent of the vote, this could push a coalition partner to victory. It will all come down to whether Gou can settle for being the kingmaker, or if he truly believes he can become the king.

Dennis LC Weng is Associate Professor of Political Science at Sam Houston State University and Founding Chief Executive Officer of the Asia Pacific Peace Research Institute. Jared Jeter is a master’s student at National Chengchi University and Research Associate at the Asia Pacific Peace Research Institute. This commentary first appeared on East Asia Forum.

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Commentary: For a digital detox, Japan seeks ‘The Way of the Sauna’

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Online guides dictate how much time one needs to spend in a sauna of what temperature (between 80 and 100 degrees Celsius, or 176 to 212 Fahrenheit), how long to endure the heat before subjecting oneself to a cold plunge, as well as the correct number of times to repeat the cycle to achieve totonou.

A bewildering array of terms transmogrified into Japanese from various European languages, from aufguss to loyly, create the impression of a sophisticated hobby, like wine collecting, that rewards dedication and study.

In the English-speaking West, sauna culture seems the province of meatheaded podcast bros and overbearing tech entrepreneurs. Not so in Japan, where polls indicate it’s equally as popular with women as men. Friends recommended it not for its physical health benefits, but for the mental, with one acquaintance going so far as to liken totonou to getting high.

In search of psychological clarity, if nothing else, I visited one of the trendy new facilities in Tokyo’s Shibuya district. I followed the rituals as written: Ten minutes or so in the sauna; a minute in the cold plunge pool; another quarter of an hour taking in fresh air and awaiting inspiration.

Nothing happened. I felt as likely to catch a cold as find inner peace. Was the sauna not hot enough? Had I chickened out of the frigid bath too early? I needed to go further.

NEED FOR RELAXATION

I reached out to the man most directly responsible for the recent craze, manga artist Katsuki Tanaka. He began writing about saunas in 2009, having become hooked on the experience after joining his local gym, and copying what he saw others do. His columns eventually became a collection of essays entitled Sado, a play on the word for tea ceremony, but using a different character to mean “The Way of the Sauna”.

That became a hit comic book and in 2019 was turned into a TV show, all of which helped inspire the current trend. In the process, he popularised the sauna rituals and coined the word totonou. Then came COVID-19, which turbocharged the need for facilities where people could get away from life’s cares.

“Spending so much time at home, surrounded by information on computers and smartphones, unable to go abroad, makes people want an experience that will satisfy your five senses,” Tanaka says. “Our lifestyles have hugely changed in the last few years.”

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Commentary: Malaysia opposition party PAS has a long-term plan to go its own way

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PAS did not defend Bersatu when its renegade members chose to support the Unity Government. In the mind of PAS leaders, this was not unexpected; after all, Bersatu is a party built by defectors. The marginalisation of Bersatu in the SG4 executive councils is a signal of PAS’ intent of building internal strength instead of relying on partners to deliver their part.

AN UPHILL BATTLE

Apart from these focus areas, PAS will likely continue to deepen its community roots like it has always done in the northeast of West Malaysia. The only difference is that it would focus on projecting an urban and modern image, such as setting up a “super app” with functions such as an e-wallet.

It remains an uphill battle for PAS. The SG4 are among the poorest states in Malaysia, with the lowest household income and highest poverty incidence.

Kelantan and its water woes for the past few years were a clear standout. At the party congress, the Kelantan chief minister, Mohd Nassuruddin Daud, struggled to cite good examples of PAS’ governing success, besides providing interest-free loans for cheap housing.

At the same time, PAS’ insular thinking about non-Malays would likely yield little returns. The Nik Aziz slogan of “PAS For All” still rings hollow under Abdul Hadi’s leadership, which is defined by the dangerous amplification of racial rhetoric.

It would be a mistake to assume that PAS’ strategy could work in the short term, but it would be a bigger mistake to assume that PAS is not placing bets on the long term. After all, without long-term thinking, it would not have survived a half-century in opposition and ended up where it is today.

James Chai is a Visiting Fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute and a columnist for MalaysiaKini and Sin Chew Daily. This commentary first appeared on the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s blog, Fulcrum. Continue Reading

Commentary: Russia’s memory diplomacy is paying dividends in Southeast Asia

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MANUFACTURED REMEMORIES

Even if World War II thoughts are created, it is difficult but not impossible. When their defense ministers unveiled an Allies Of Myanmar Warriors monument in Moscow’s Patriot Park in August to commemorate the Battle of Mandalay in early 1945, Myanmar and Russia did exactly that.

Sergei Shoigu, the Russian Defense Minister, stated at the opening ceremony that it was crucial to” preserve and protect the reality of true history” and that Burma and the Soviet Union had worked together to put an end to fascism( a term that is already popular in the Kremlin because it has accused the Russian leadership of being Nazis ). One of the men in the statue is shown holding a rifle from the Soviet Union.

In actuality, Moscow did not offer Burma any defense support during the conflict.

The Cold War is a more fertile ground for Moscow’s memory delicacy in Southeast Asia because it was during the time of superpower conflict that the Soviet Union supported republican movements in the area.

The Kremlin’s enormous military and financial contributions to Vietnam and Laos during the Cold War continue to be the cornerstone of both nations’ relations with Russia.

Senior Asian leaders always mention Moscow’s” heartfelt help” for Vietnam in its” fight for national independence and reconciliation ,” as Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh just did.

A statue honoring Russian aircraft who killed Burmese pilot training in the 1970s was unveiled in Vientiane in 2022. The storage of the heroic deed performed by the Russian pilots will be in the minds of both peoples, according to the Russian ambassador to Laos.

Earlier in the 1960s, weapons payments from the Soviet Union to Indonesia helped the Sukarno government defeat the Dutch and annex Papua.

The construction of the Khmer-Soviet Friendship Hospital in Phnom Penh is one example of how Russia frequently uses the meager support it currently provides to Southeast Asia to preserve the memory of Communist support.

Moscow’s remembrance of politics in the case of Thailand, which sided with America during the Cold War, dates back to the late 19th centuries, when the royal households of Imperial Russia and the Kingdom of Siam developed near personal relationships. Tsar Nicholas II is credited with preventing Siam from being colonized by Britain and France in both Russian and Vietnamese tales. The Russians are often eager to embellish this historical fact.

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Commentary: Israel-Hamas war puts China’s strategy of ‘balanced diplomacy’ in the Middle East at risk

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The Israel-Hamas war, which has so far been centered around the idea of” balanced diplomacy ,” is, in my opinion, the sternest test however of President Xi Jinping’s Middle East strategy, as a professor who teaches courses on Chinese foreign policy.

Growing pro-Palestinian opinion in China and the nation’s long-standing ties to the area imply that, should Xi be forced off the path of fairness, he will support the Palestinians rather than the Israelis.

Beijing, however, may prefer not to make that decision for smart economical and foreign policy considerations. Making such a decision, in my opinion, would effectively put an end to China’s ten-year effort to establish itself as an influential” helpful plumber” in the area— an outside force that aims to mediate peace agreements and establish an incredibly diverse regional economic and security purchase.

BEIJING’S Techniques AND Goals

China was not the country that invested in the Middle East, contrary to what was widely believed in political circles ages ago. This hasn’t been the case since around 2012. Since then, China has invested a lot of political effort in expanding its influence in the area.

China’s strategic vision for the Middle East is considerably enhanced while the US influence is greatly reduced in Beijing.

On the one hand, this is merely a geographical expression of the world vision, as outlined in dozens of Chinese foreign policy initiatives, including the Community of Common Destiny, Global Development Initiative, and Global Security Initiative. All of these initiatives are intended, at least in part, to appeal to nations in the Global South that feel extremely cut off from the US-led rules-based global order.

It is a perspective based on worries that China’s entry to the Middle East oil and gas exports would be threatened if the United States maintained its control there.

That does not imply that Beijing wants to overthrow the United States as the region’s dominant force. Given the strength of the money and the US’s long-standing ties to some major economies in the region, that is impossible.

Instead, China’s stated strategy is to encourage regional multi-alignment, which encourags unique nations to cooperate with China in areas like infrastructure and industry. By doing this, China and other players in the area are strengthened, and any incentives to add unique US-led blocs are also undermined.Continue Reading

Commentary: How China can reassure nervous foreign investors before it’s too late

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HONG KONG: Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, the presidents of China and the US, appear set to meet in San Francisco later this month. They will undoubtedly concentrate on the Taiwan issue, which poses the biggest threat to a stable US-China relationship, but managing the” securitization” of the two countries’ economic ties should also be their top priority.

Since the Trump administration started the trade conflict in 2018, Beijing has accused Washington of exaggerating worries about the safety implications of their financial relations. It has been turned into a device conflict by Biden’s administration in an effort to impede Chinese advancement in cutting-edge technology.

In the name of regional security, Washington seems to” securitize” virtually every aspect of economic ties, from industry and technologies to purchase. Due to its Chinese ownership, TikTok, a platform for sharing little videos, is being scrutinized more closely. Security concerns have even been raised regarding Chinese-made energy buses operating in US cities.

Beijing portrays itself as the hurt party and insists that the US is solely to blame for the relationship’s problems.

Beijing’s assertion, however, is false, to put it mildly.

In response to Washington’s actions, Beijing is also active” securitizing” US-related trade and investment issues. This is consistent with Beijing’s significant transition away from growth and toward security. The most recent instances include unexpected and poorly explained raids and arrests involving Foxconn, a Taiwanese Apple provider, as well as some American agencies and other businesses.

Such behavior run counter to its stated objective of allowing more foreign investment and trade, which scares away US and international investors.

In other words, while US actions merely target and influence Chinese trade and assets, China’s actions are alarming traders all over the world. The Taiwanese government needs to review its safeguards urgently in order to revitalize an economy that has been severely impacted by three years of zero-COVID settings.

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Commentary: Concerns over China-backed high-speed railway do not derail Indonesia’s agency

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However, China was not the only nation to provide funding for this endeavor. The Jakarta – Bandung high-speed railway’s financing was initially a contest between China and Japan. A chance to enhance inter-city communication was suggested in the form of the Bandung-Javanese high-speed railway after Japan’s victory in addressing Jakartas population density problem by building the Jakarta Mass Rail Transit System during the 2000s.

Both China and Japan made a charge in 2015. The main factor in Japan’s rejection of the Chinese play was its emphasis on a payment guarantee from the Malaysian authorities, even though there were additional benefits, such as an offer of technology transfer. This demonstrates Indonesia’s efforts to uphold its reign.

Indonesia insisted it may demand the same of China after rejecting Japan’s play on these grounds. Beijing, but, responded harshly when Jakarta asked it to pay the budget surplus, putting a strain on the once-strong economic ties between Indonesia and China.

Chinese companies like Alibaba Cloud first showed interest in similar large infrastructure projects, such as Nusantara, the ambitious project by Indonesian President Joko Widodok to relocate the nation’s capital to East Kalimantan, but these projects ultimately fell through.

Firm IN SOUTHEAST Eastern COUNTRIES

However, the high-speed rail project has shown that Indonesia is determined to keep its agency in charge of such initiatives, as evidenced by the fact that it chose to cover the flooded costs out of its own budget. Despite the promise of significant equipment investments from China, there is a growing trend of nations in Southeast Asia following suit.

Related problems have been encountered with the Export-Import Bank of China-funded East Coast Rail Link in Malaysia. Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad renegotiated the project, which had been stalled since 2016 with an initial estimated price of$ 16 billion, to$ 11 billion and a favorable deal for Malay staff in order to make the investment between Malaysia and China more just.

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Commentary: Gibran’s VP run may be the biggest gamble for Prabowo – and outgoing Indonesian President Jokowi

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Mr. Jokowi’s camp seems to be aware of this: PSI recently launched a forceful” Jokowo – philosophy” campaign that prominently featured the names and faces of Mrs. Widod, Pangarep, and Raka on occasion. This highlights their efforts to capitalize on the priest’s recognition and win over voters.

A CAREFUL VICE PRESIDENT?

Even if the couple succeeds in overcoming these obstacles during the campaign, they may still encounter additional governance difficulties. Does the powerful PDI-P support Mr. Subianto’s alliance in his goals?

If this was merely a marriage of convenience, it’s also possible that Mr. Subianto was remove Mr Raka from his position as vice president, which has no real legal authority until appointed by the president.

His latest stance toward Mr. Jokowi could be viewed as one: After his defeat in 2019 and his appointment as defense minister in an effort to promote national unity following a contentious election that saw demonstrations against the results turn deadly, M. Subianto was appointed.

If the PSI, the group headed by Mr. Jokowi’s youngest brother, is unable to win seats in the House of Representatives, he might not have much of an impact. PSI currently lacks political representation because it received just 1.89 percent of the total nationwide vote in 2019, which is less than the 4 % required to allocate seats in the legislature.

The gap between Mr. Jokowi and PDI-P, the political party that first propelled him, his son, and son-in-law to their present positions, may also become unbridgeable.

Both Mr. Subianto and M. Jokowi may be seriously at risk if they decide to run for girlfriend and vice president alongside Raka.

At the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Made Supriatma is a visiting companion for the Indonesia Studies Program.

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Commentary: Tokyo’s Shibuya wants to cancel Halloween. That’s a mistake

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HOW HALLOWEEN TOOK OFF IN JAPAN

Halloween is a recent invention in this part of the world. When I first came to Japan more than 20 years ago, few had even heard of it; pumpkins were for eating, not for decorating. A parade at Tokyo Disneyland, started in 1997, is often credited with popularising the celebration, giving partiers a reason to dress up.

Around 2011, young people in costumes began to assemble in Shibuya in the hundreds, and then the thousands, as Halloween approached. While overseas it might be considered more of an event for kids, in Japan it became something for university students and other young people, who drank in the streets while stumbling from bar to bar.

Why it took off when it did is a matter of debate. Some cite the rise of Facebook and Twitter, which grew in popularity in the aftermath of the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster of 2011 and the release of the movie The Social Network that same year. Others cite the Harajuku icon Kyary Pamyu Pamyu’s song Fashion Monster, released in 2012, whose music video features a Halloween party.  

Regardless, Shibuya was at the centre. And initially, authorities were on board: For several years in the mid-2010s, the city blocked off the main thoroughfare of Dogenzaka on multiple nights, freeing up the city centre to cosplaying pedestrians.

As a long-term resident of the area, there was something quite heartwarming about watching the event grow organically. Tokyoites don’t tend to interact much with strangers compared with, say, locals in Osaka; to see the one night a year when a group of costumed Super Marios could encounter a completely unfamiliar group of Luigis – and instantly become friends – was faintly magical. 

But as the number of attendees peaked pre-pandemic, Shibuya began to lose patience. Bad press circulated when a small truck was overturned in 2018; the media highlighted reports of sexual harassment and other assaults, though serious incidents were limited. 

Hasebe, the mayor, says the quality of the event has declined, even as the number of people increased to some 40,000 in 2019, with fewer attendees dressing up in costume, and more coming to gawk at (or ogle) those who did. That year, in an attempt to limit rambunctiousness, the city began asking stores to stop selling alcohol; drinking in the streets is perfectly legal in Japan, though Shibuya has passed a rather powerless local ordinance that limits it around Halloween and New Year’s Eve. 

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Commentary: Parents, don’t mistake dyslexia for a vision problem

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SUPPORT TO STAY IN MAINSTREAM SCHOOLS

With appropriate intervention and support, many can remain in mainstream education. Helping them cope might require teachers with appropriate training and other reasonable accommodations, such as assistive technology or extra time for examinations.

But since dyslexia is characterised by deficits in speech production, phonology education is crucial, said chartered educational psychologist Tan Cheng Yi. After-school interventional classes can help dyslexic individuals recognise language patterns and are customised for each child, according to language therapist Dr Choy.

There are varied programmes of instructions, several of which are influenced by the Orton-Gillingham approach developed in the 1930s, though studies are mixed as to their effectiveness. More high-quality, rigorous research with larger samples of students is needed to fully understand the effects of Orton-Gillingham interventions.

According to the Mayo Clinic, multi-sensory teaching – involving sight, sound, movement and touch – is considered the gold standard for teaching children with dyslexia to read. Educational psychologist Ms Tan suggested activities such as singing the alphabet to help children associate letters with sounds.

For those who cannot grasp phonics, she suggested using the whole-word approach. The approach teaches children to read by sight, by recognising and remembering the shapes of the entire words, rather than individual letters, and pair the words with images or sounds.

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