Commentary: Don’t dismiss the fury over Fukushima’s water

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Pacific nations have a similar history. Though no country has suffered the death toll that Japan endured from nuclear weapons, the dozens of bombs tested in the Marshall Islands released energy about 5,000 times greater than that of those dropped on Japan. It left a grim legacy of cancers and birth defects.

Most Pacific nations became independent from their former colonial powers in the late 1970s and early 1980s, at a time when both the US and Japan were looking to the region’s vast spaces as a dump for radioactive waste. Fighting against those policies and establishing a nuclear-free zone south of the equator was a foundational event for many young nations, quite as much as pacifism was in post-war Japan.

Some circumspection earlier in the process might have paid off. It took China’s aggressive diplomacy in the region before Japan, the US and Australia started to reverse decades of neglect and began making serious attempts to woo and listen to Pacific island governments. 

As recently as 2015, then-prime minister Shinzo Abe told a delegation of island leaders meeting some 40km from the Fukushima plant “to support Japan’s effort without being misled by rumours”.

That sort of scolding response was thankfully absent in his successor Fumio Kishida’s summit on the sidelines of the Group of Seven meeting earlier this month with Prime Minister Mark Brown of the Cook Islands. Pacific leaders, in turn, appear to have been mollified by the greater transparency and dialogue.

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Commentary: China is increasing its influence in Central Asia as part of global plans to offer an alternative to the West

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The countries at the summit recommitted to a China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, to highways from China to Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, and to transport infrastructure for trans-Caspian trade routes using seaports in Kazakhstan and in Turkmenistan.

This focus on transport infrastructure in, and importantly across, central Asia highlights how important the region is for China’s attempts to diversify its trade routes to Europe away from Russia. 

It also means that China, for now, will continue to use infrastructure development and trade to recruit more partners for its alternative international order.

The Russian “northern corridor” is now largely closed as a result of Ukraine war-related sanctions. So the route often referred to as the middle corridor has regained importance not only for China but also, crucially, for the G7 countries.

However, the middle corridor, which begins in Turkey and continues via Georgia and through central Asia, would be risky for China as a sole alternative. Its capacity is low (currently only about 5 per cent of the northern corridor) because goods have to cross multiple borders and switch several times between road, rail and sea.

AFGHANISTAN’S ROLE

Another alternative – with similar geopolitical significance – is transporting through Afghanistan to the Arabian Sea via the Pakistani port of Gwadar. In the long term, a trans-Afghan route is in the interest of both China and Central Asia.

It would contribute to (but also depend on) stability and security in Afghanistan. And it would reduce China’s exposure to the risks associated with the existing route along the China-Pakistan economic corridor, especially those arising from the ongoing Taliban insurgency in Pakistan.

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Commentary: Xi Jinping’s Taiwan ambitions threaten China’s rise

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Like the Japanese before the second world war, the Chinese complain that the US is trying to strangle their economy. America denies any such intention, arguing that its restrictions on tech exports are narrowly aimed at China’s war-fighting capability.

But even if the US had a broader plan to thwart Chinese economic growth, any such efforts would probably be unsuccessful.

IMPRESSIVE ECONOMIC RISE

Like most countries, China has its share of problems. But the country’s economic rise remains impressive. This year China is projected to become the world’s largest exporter of cars, displacing Japan.

China is doing particularly well with the electronic vehicles that will dominate the future. Bill Gates argues that American tech-export bans are likely to be counter-productive, encouraging China to develop its own capabilities much more rapidly.

The Microsoft founder told me recently: “I don’t think the US will ever be successful at preventing China from having great chips.”

The CEOs of some of the West’s most powerful companies, such as Tim Cook of Apple, have made it very clear that they have no intention of walking away from China.

As a self-proclaimed Marxist, Xi should understand that global political power flows from economic power. China does not need to win a shooting war to expand its international power and influence. Trade, aid and investment will do the job without any of the attendant risk and bloodshed.

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Commentary: Pakistan faces another lost decade as the army takes on Khan

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But so was a model Pakistan Air Force jet, army installations in the garrison city of Rawalpindi and even the house of the senior military officer in Lahore once owned by Pakistan’s founder, Mohammed Ali Jinnah. There’s no doubt in the protestors’ minds of who is to blame for Khan’s arrest: Pakistan’s military, which has run the country openly and from the shadows for most of its independent history.

We don’t know the truth of the many corruption allegations against Khan. The one he was arrested for involves Pakistan’s largest construction magnate, who was supposed to hand over £190 million (US$238 million) to the treasury, but was allowed to use it to pay down his tax debt instead. The government has accused Khan of receiving “donations” for one of his university projects as a payoff.

FROM BEING THE ARMY’S CHOICE TO ITS BANE

Unfortunately, however, the facts of this or other cases don’t matter. Khan’s supporters will argue that his troubles are all because the military wants him out. And that is undeniably true. It’s equally undeniable, however, that the military wanted him in first. 

Khan’s two decades in the political wilderness only ended when the army put its massive thumb on the electoral scales in 2018, jailing and intimidating Khan’s opponents and ushering him into the prime minister’s office.

That it’s the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) being used against Khan is particularly telling, since it was originally set up by a former military dictator, Pervez Musharraf, to “put the fear of God” into Pakistan’s political elite. And it was, most recently, used to go after the military’s previous public enemy number one, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, as well as his brother, the current PM.

The military succeeded in pushing Nawaz Sharif out of politics to get Khan in; and now they have made peace with his brother, in order to push Khan out. They have used the NAB, the media, and even judges to keep Pakistan’s politicians under control.

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Commentary: How Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida got his groove back

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He’s taken a page or two out of Abe’s playbook. The late leader became a master of sticking it out through scandals, relying on internal support – and a lack of alternatives – to wait until the media ran out of material. While Kishida doesn’t have Abe’s control of the party, he’s been aided by the fact that the Abe faction, the LDP’s largest grouping, remains in disarray and has yet to choose a new leader.

DIPLOMATIC ENDEAVOURS

Fortune has favoured him in other ways. Kishida’s strengths lie in international diplomacy, and he took power in a post-COVID world at a time when he could shine.

A visit to Kyiv in March contrasted well with Xi Jinping meeting Vladimir Putin at the same time. This month, he courted the Global South with a multi-stage visit to Africa, the first for a Japanese leader in nearly a decade.

Thanks largely to the Biden administration’s increasingly tough stance on China, Tokyo is gaining global relevance as Washington seeks allies to contain Beijing’s rise – a multi-pronged strategy espoused by Abe. US pressure was also a likely factor in the outreach from South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, who has sought to repair ties strained for years.

That has enabled Kishida to get good press for hosting his counterpart in Tokyo and, in a quick turnaround, reciprocating that visit this week in Seoul. After Yoon’s trip to Washington last month, President Joe Biden can paint a picture of an alliance on China’s doorstep, one in which Japan features front and centre. That Kishida, in effect, let Seoul blink first in seeking to mend relations also helps at home, where the public is weary of demands for wartime apologies.

REFRESHED MANDATE

Domestically, things are going Kishida’s way, too. On Monday (May 8), the country drew a line under the pandemic by downgrading coronavirus to the same status as seasonal influenza, ending most COVID-era measures. The return of throngs of foreign tourists will help boost parts of the economy and stabilize the yen, contributing to a sense of an economic pickup even if its actual impact is limited.

The premier’s quick return to the campaign trail last month following a failed assassination attempt made him look like leadership material. The left-field choice of governor for the Bank of Japan – one that, if mishandled, had the potential to roil the economy – has so far paid off, with Kazuo Ueda toeing the line on easy money.

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Commentary: There’s no missing the political signal behind the sunken warship drill by US, Philippines

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MILITARY MIGHT

In 2016, Duterte scaled back on his original plan to impose a blanket moratorium on military exercises with the Americans, instead approving the continuation of Balikatan and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).

He mandated that joint military training exercises with the US had to focus on civic action and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, as well as “less assault exercises”. Some key exercises were dropped in accordance with Duterte’s desire to do away with “showy war games”. Duterte also ordered the transfer of Philippine-US exercises customarily conducted in regions facing the South China Sea to be relocated to Mindanao in order to “not offend our neighbours”.

As a result, the annual exercise in 2017 was scaled down to just 5,400 troops from both sides, a sharp drop from about 11,000 the previous year, and the war game component was dropped. True to Duterte’s directives, there were no activities held in Palawan facing the South China Sea, and no live-firing in Zambales which is close to Scarborough Shoal, which Beijing maintained de facto control over.

The exercises in the following year saw a rebound in participation at 8,000 troops, including also amphibious landing drills in Zambales – at a time when China reportedly deployed missile systems to the Spratly Islands.

In 2019, more than 7,500 troops participated in exercises in Luzon, again facing the South China Sea, at a time when a Chinese boat swarm loitered off Philippine-held Thitu Island in the Spratlys.

Despite Duterte’s 2016 directives de-emphasising a “showy wargame” approach, the nature and scale of the 2019 exercises were anything but. It featured the US Navy’s amphibious assault ship Wasp which embarked the US Marine Corps F-35B joint strike fighters – the first time these jets were deployed for Balikatan.

Again, an amphibious assault landing exercise was conducted in Zambales and despite being couched under the official “counterterrorism” cover, those forces and manoeuvres involved made the drills appear closer to simulating a warfighting scenario instead. An airfield assault drill was also arranged at the Philippine military’s request – which is interesting given Manila’s sole airfield in the Spratlys is located on Thitu Island.

Balikatan was not held in 2020 due to COVID-19, whereas the 2021 iteration was a heavily down-scaled one with fewer than 700 troops participating not due to geopolitical considerations – given the Philippine-Chinese flareup over Whitsun Reef in the South China Sea early that year – but pandemic restrictions.

In 2022, however, the exercise rebounded in scale, involving 8,900 troops. The US deployed for the first time an amphibious insertion of a Patriot anti-missile system, while the Philippines showcased its newly acquired weapon systems and platforms.

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Snap Insight: Xi-Zelenskyy call does more for China’s image than peace in Ukraine – at least for now

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And though China has saved billions on cheap Russian oil and coal, a long protracted war that Russia is not guaranteed to win won’t be in China’s long-term interests either. And a path to the negotiation table from his “dear friend” Xi could offer Putin a way to engage in the process without losing face.

China’s Ukraine peace plan was almost universally seen as lacking substance, ambition and utility. Zelenskyy called it “interesting” to avoid insulting China and encourage Xi to engage further.

This telephone call is the second effort by China to appear relevant and helpful. Hopefully, this time there will be a real and sincere effort by China to help achieve peace.

James Carouso is a Senior Fellow and Chair of the Australia Advisory Board at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington DC, and a former Acting US Ambassador to Australia.

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