Commentary: Why is Indian PM Modi going to Russia?

By:
On:
In: Asia

With Modi’s lack, Delhi is telling its Chinese participants that relationships are under extreme stress. The place for interaction between the two Asian neighbors is sparse unless the Chinese reverse their aggressive behavior in the  Himalayas. Unlike the BRICS, which even includes Russia, China, and India but has a stronger financial ring, the SCO has a different protection sentiment around it.

STRATEGY, NOT CHEAP OIL

Media reports&nbsp, suggest&nbsp, that Modi may attend Russia in the second week of July. This trip may rankle some Western observers. India’s order of low oil from Russia has been viewed as profiting from problems in the heart of Europe since the start of the conflict in Ukraine.

There is no denying that India’s unaltered position on Ukraine, along with US sanctions against Russia, has prompted Moscow to offer crude to India for less money. In urging for “dialogue and diplomacy” Delhi has consistently held an indifferent place on the Ukraine issue.

But this goes to plan, not cheap fuel. To quote Jaishankar, the reason for the period- tested security in India- Russia ties is to keep a continental&nbsp, balance&nbsp, in the European homeland. That is, to compromise China. When there are already two open fronts: China and Pakistan, do n’t go around making new adversaries.

Continue Reading

Commentary: Modi’s magic is fading fast. Who’s next for India?

By:
On:
In: Asia

POTENTIAL Alternatives?

Perhaps the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh ( RSS), the umbrella Hindu right-wing organization that supports the BJP, will try to find Modi’s replacement in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, which is crucial for forming a government in New Delhi.

Yogi Adityanath, the state’s yellow- robe- wearing general secretary, has acquired a status as a bodybuilder. He is known for carrying out home demolitions, especially of Muslim properties, as illegal consequence following episodes of social crime. He makes an appeal to the anti-Modi government as a force for the federal plan of spiritual polarization.

In the 12 or 13 years he served as governor of Gujarat, an industrialized condition on India’s northern coast, Modi had likewise established himself as an efficient economic administrator. Adityanath may struggle to simulate Modi’s” Gujarat Model” in Uttar Pradesh, which is less developed than sub-Saharan Africa and more popular than Brazil.

Aside from this, the liberal and left-wing factions opposed to the RSS and its Hindu-first plan will be more vigilant about allowing any new mysticism to occur within a social character. If it is possible to shake Amit Shah, who has been Modi’s range two for decades, then NDA partners will take care of the rest.

Shah is India’s most feared person due to his command over national analytical bodies and the way he used them against political competitors. Now that they can then justify their support for the BJP, alliance partners want to run their businesses without having to deal with constant monitoring or jail time, just like they would with constant surveillance. When Modi, during the most recent election strategy, referred to a 1, 000-year vision and made the claim that he had been sent by God, cables and reporters nodded graciously.

The person who makes these outrageous claims will likely be stopped before they take business. But who after Modi? Perhaps he is not liked by anyone. Or at least that’s the choice of voters. Economic areas may really get used to it.

Continue Reading

Commentary: What do Biden’s big new China tariffs mean for the rest of the world?

By:
On:
In: Asia

GLASS- HALF- FULL Points

There is, in other words, lot to worry about. However, there are also a few important goblet- half- complete angles that risk being overlooked.

For one, as tariff advocates for the Biden administration may say, the bipartisan consensus on contest with China means there is no socially appropriate American clean energy transition that relies on Chinese exports. For the culture therefore, the argument is it is either this, or zero.

That furthermore, for now at least, means that US isolationism is being directed mainly at China exclusively. That opens up opportunities for people. Fresh energy supply stores have already been shifting to another developing nations like Vietnam, Cambodia, and Mexico due to the country’s prior US tariffs on China. This tendency will be strengthened by the most recent tax increases.

Although it has not been overlooked, a significant portion of the change in business moves is being driven by Foreign investment, along with a sizable source of imported Chinese parts and components.

From a development aspect that’s fine, as over time this will help states to create their own private functions. However, a lot will depend on whether the US later expands its geographic targeting to include its businesses that are active in third countries.

Some US officials are attempting to do thus. Perhaps, though, the fees involved will help keep this in search. According to the International Monetary Fund, the shift to” connector” third countries has halted the effects of previous US tariff rounds on the economy.

Biden’s taxes, of course, also reflect the solid protectionist currents that are permeating American politics. Even as Donald Trump mentions a “ring” of tariffs around the country, he still has the option of hitting China much harder with 60 % or higher tariffs, as opposed to 10 % for everyone else.

Continue Reading

Commentary: What to do when the US-China rivalry gulf remains deep, wide and long-lasting

By:
On:
In: Asia

HOW WIDE IS THE Sea?

American at the meeting had a lot to say about this.

Some claimed that the differences between their positions on global issues like the Ukraine conflict, the Middle East conflict, and the disputes over the South China Sea were architectural.

One American member noted that because the two countries were at odds with one another in so many places, it could only be described as a cold battle, but with a little” c” and “w,” suggesting that they are some way from the level of stress seen during the Cold War of the last decade, when the differences between the West and the Soviet Union were unbreakable and there was always a chance that the conflict would turn into a nuclear issue.

He claimed it was helpful to acknowledge this so that more people could understand the nature of the competitiveness and how to deal with it.

It is an important concept. In response to a question about how to strengthen relations between the two, a US speaker made the point that the US was never now pursuing improved relations. Instead, it was focused on how to keep its place in the constantly evolving political environment.

It was a somber fact check about hoping for a positive outcome from the marriage.

On this level, the Chinese area was less decisive. Instead, they were trying to convey to China that the end of the United States was approaching and that a new harmony had to be struck to account for China’s position in the world.

One interesting place from a Chinese speech: A powerful China is important for global balance.

He did not say it, but it must come to an end that the nation will unabatedly undertake its creation in all the areas that will improve its international standing, including sophisticated technology, defense, and international relations.

It is n’t just about improving the lives of the Chinese people; it’s also about making the world safer, of course, which is still at the forefront.

That is how China is framing its place.

Similar to the National side, there was a hint of fatalism when a Taiwanese participant declared that trust was certainly a crucial factor when both sides tried to manage their relations. This was also true.

He pointed out that there was a lot of trust between the US and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, but they were able to come to terms on issues like nuclear regulates and, most importantly, prevent immediate issue.

Another sombering reflection.

Continue Reading

Commentary: Dispelling US-China myths before they become self-fulfilling prophecies

By:
On:
In: Asia

SPACE FOR Assistance AND Movements

Despite such nuances about securitisation, the US and China still have many disagreements, such as over how peace, stability and ( which ) rules, are maintained. Obviously, this has led to growing suspicion.

We typically think of trust as being able to demonstrate that it is true, or that it is true that others share our essential spiritual principles and should be treated the same way as we would like to be treated by them, which has both social and psychological dimensions.

There can be a more analytical confidence, however, based upon anticipations about attitudes which may be created through protection, care or other mechanisms. Therefore, cooperation may occur even between untrustworthy parties as long as there are incentives and rules for the parties ‘ behavior.

During the Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union could reach a nuclear non-proliferation agreement. And in fact, after a meeting in November 2023 in a rumored work to lower hostilities, Mr. Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to handle fentanyl prostitution and climate shift.

What about the adage that as US-China tensions rise, there will be less space for additional nations to maneuver? As many of the nations in the non-aligned action did, greater differences may have opened up more room for other countries to compete against one another in a similar way to the one achieved by the non-aligned movement.

Different nations have their own independence, with the primary goal of protecting and advancing their own interests. Indonesia, for instance, has practised a “free and active ” foreign policy since it became independent, “rowing between two reefs ” during the Cold War.

It is important to remove some of the myths so that the world can continue to navigate the delicate and complex US-China marriage despite all of its ups and downs, lest they turn into self-fulfilling prophecies.

At Nanyang Technological University’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Chang Jun Yan is an associate professor for the US and military studies programs.  

Continue Reading

Commentary: Once enemies, Japan and US strengthen their alliance

By:
On:
In: Asia

Does AUKUS ALLIANCE BECOME JAUKUS?

Thursday’s first intergovernmental conference between the US, Japan and the Philippines adds to the pattern of overlapping minilateralism. Following Kishida’s visit last month, a conference between the US, Japan, and South Korea was held at Camp David.

A joint naval exercise involving US, Japanese, Australian, and Philippine warships was conducted in the South China Sea also before his recent US visit.

An agreement to keep security and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea is expected to be reached at the multilateral conference with Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. China’s territorial statements to the sea area will also be challenged as a result of these international maritime maneuvers.

The Philippines and Japan will even begin political negotiations for a mutual access deal. This will allow Chinese forces to be stationed at Spanish military installations.

American Prime Minister Anthony Albanese played down the aspirations of “JAUKUS” as Kishida began his journey. He claimed that merely on a “project by job” basis is it probable that Japan would participate in Pillar II. Japan’s formal accession to the AUKUS defense empire was not envisaged.

Kishida added at Wednesday’s press event that “nothing has been decided” regarding Japan’s strong co- activity with AUKUS. Nevertheless, he reiterated that the US foreign policy creation has encouraged Japan to contribute to Pillar Two, especially in underwater war, hypersonic missile growth, and classical and computer systems.

Continue Reading

Commentary: Return of China’s panda diplomacy with US signals warming of ties after years of tension

By:
On:
In: Asia

WHAT IS THE Story OF?

Giant pandas have been kept at The Smithsonian’s park since 1972, making it undoubtedly the origin of panda diplomacy in the West. The aquarium lost its giant panda on November 8, 2023, when Mei Xiang, Tian Tian, and their child, Xiao Qi Ji, were flown up to China.

There were indications that tiger politics had ended as a result of the significant rise in tensions between the US and China. Additionally, it appeared that the connections between US and Taiwanese companies were getting worse. According to a survey of the US-China Business Council’s people in 2023, 34 % of planned investment in China had stopped or decreased over the past year.

However, President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden met for a four-hour summit at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ( APEC ) conference in San Francisco later that month and gave the impression that there was a possibility for reconciliation. The US and China “must control our relations well,” according to Xi, in a world of difficulties. Xi made an allusion to the penguins ‘ reputation among Americans.

He added that China and the United States are “ready to maintain our cooperation with the United States on dragon conservation” and that China may “do our best to meet the Californians ‘ wishes so as to enhance the friendly relations between our two individuals.”

On the outside of the APEC meeting, Xi organized a meal with hundreds of software executives, including Tim Cook, the CEO of Apple, and other business leaders. Thus, Beijing’s decision to send its state treasures to California may seem natural in light of its significance to the Eastern superpower.

Beijing appears to be willing to return its bears to the US as part of a plan to improve not only its social relationship with Biden, but also, perhaps more important, to encourage US expense and reframe Beijing as a nicer trading partner.

Chee Meng Tan is University of Nottingham’s Assistant Professor of Business Economics. This commentary second appeared in The Conversation, and was published here.

Continue Reading

Commentary: The squawkus about AUKUS is getting louder

By:
On:
In: Asia

On a technical level, acquiring and maintaining nuclear-powered submarines involves a big and very costly technological leap for Australia. AUKUS will be done in three complicated stages.

First, Australia will overhaul its current conventional submarines. Then, in the early 2030s, it will take delivery of some second-hand Virginia-class nuclear subs from the US. A decade later, the first AUKUS-class subs – designed in Britain, featuring US technology and built in the UK and Australia – will be deployed.

There is some quiet dismay in the Australian defence establishment at the large British role in the building of SSN-AUKUS. There is much less confidence in the UK’s military-industrial base than in US capabilities.

Those doubts will have grown following the difficulties of British aircraft carriers and the failure of a recent test of a UK Trident nuclear missile. Elizabeth Buchanan of West Point Military Academy argues bluntly that: “SSN-AUKUS probably won’t materialise.” Australian critics of AUKUS fear the country is setting off down a long and costly road to nowhere.

STRENGTHENING DETERRENCE

The strategic arguments against AUKUS are the weakest ones. The Australian government, like the Japanese and the Indians, is justifiably concerned by China’s military and territorial ambitions. It understands that if Beijing successfully invaded Taiwan – or managed to enforce its claims over the South China Sea – China would become the dominant power in the Indo-Pacific, with profound consequences for Australian security.

AUKUS is a classic effort to strengthen deterrence by increasing the risks to China of any potential aggression. As one Australian security official puts it: “The goal is to prevent a war, not to fight one.”

Continue Reading

Commentary: Vietnam’s ‘bamboo policy’ is an asset as the US, China come calling

By:
On:
In: Asia

CAMARADERIE AND BROTHERHOOD

China is watching its Communist neighbour’s increasingly closer relations with Washington with interest. After Biden’s visit, Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong travelled to Beijing in October to meet with Xi. The Chinese leader told him that the two countries have developed a deep friendship of “camaraderie and brotherhood”, and that they should regard the bilateral relationship as a priority in their respective foreign policies – a veiled reference, or a reminder perhaps, of keeping ties strong, no matter how much the US comes knocking.  

Beijing has long-standing economic relations with Hanoi, but could do more to bring big-name Chinese companies to invest, Nguyen Quoc Cuong, a former Vietnamese ambassador to the US, told me from Hanoi.

“China is lagging behind some other countries, namely the US, in this regard. Personally, I would like to see big names like the Chinese versions of Apple or Intel in the high tech space, and the digital economy investing more here.”

But while using economic incentives to gain political leverage may be what the great powers are trying, it’s unlikely the strategy will be that straightforward. Vietnam will continue to be guided by a foreign policy that has allowed it to strike relationships with countries that are often at odds with one another. 

It’s not just about managing the US and China, Lye Liang Fook, senior fellow at the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, told me.

“There is a new upgraded relationship with Japan as well. This visit by Xi is another indication of Vietnam’s delicate balancing act, but it also shows how the country has been been striking a healthy equilibrium with the major powers.”

Continue Reading

Commentary: How will Henry Kissinger be remembered in Southeast Asia?

By:
On:
In: Asia

HENRY KISSINGER’S WORLDVIEW

In trying to understand the enigma of the man, we have to understand his worldview. Dr Kissinger was the ultimate practitioner of realpolitik pragmatism. For him, morality had little place in the arena of world politics where power served as its prime currency.

If anything, excessive preoccupation with moral arguments were a distraction from – if not an obstacle to – the larger objective of peace, which to him was ultimately about avoiding the kind of great power conflagration that brought about World War II. To achieve this objective, difficult decisions would have to be made which, to Dr Kissinger, left little room for sentimentality.

This leads to a second point: To Dr Kissinger, the chief actors in the script of global politics were the great powers. Throughout his time in office during the terms of US presidents Richard M Nixon and Gerald R Ford, Dr Kissinger was consumed by Cold War competition with the Soviet Union and principally, the question of how to prevent a major nuclear conflict without compromising American interests and security.

It is from this prism that some of the US’ most controversial policies during those years, many attributed to him and that have tainted his legacy, should be viewed, such as the toleration of right-wing dictatorships in Latin America, complicity in violence in Bangladesh and the bombing of Cambodia.

KISSINGER’s IMPACT ON SOUTHEAST ASIA

With these aspects of Dr Kissinger’s worldview in mind, what were his contributions and connections to Southeast Asia? After all, if indeed his preoccupation was with great power politics, how did he view a region that comprised small and medium-sized states?

As national security adviser and later also secretary of state to US presidents Nixon and Ford, Henry Kissinger served during the most turbulent years of recent Southeast Asian history, when Soviet and Chinese-supported communist movements threatened to take over many governments in the region.

While communist insurgencies raged across Southeast Asia, it was in Vietnam where the threat was most urgent. Indeed, as early on as the presidency of Dwight D Eisenhower, the US was already seized by the prospect that the fall of Indochina to communism would allow the ideology to spread across Southeast Asia. This became known as the “domino theory”.

Dr Kissinger was instrumental in crafting and executing American policy at the height of the Vietnam War. He would oversee further escalation of the war, both in terms of the number of US troops deployed and also the expansion of the war to Cambodia, which he thought necessary in order to weaken the Vietcong.

Nevertheless, the ballooning cost of the war, mounting American casualties, and President Nixon’s promise to scale down US involvement, compelled Dr Kissinger to pursue secret negotiations with North Vietnam for the US’ eventual withdrawal.

Both he and his North Vietnamese counterpart, Le Duc Tho, were awarded the 1973 Nobel peace prize for their efforts. Mr Tho declined it, and Dr Kissinger never went to Oslo to collect his for fear of widespread protests given how unpopular the war had become.

Continue Reading