Small businesses, big challenges: The reality of China’s post-US Fed cut economy

Additionally, analysts told CNA that the effect on small businesses would probably be generally direct and minimum. According to Mr. Bell,” I do n’t think Fed cuts will have much impact on Chinese consumers,” adding that” small businesses with a domestic focus are less impacted,” while citing low domestic confidence as a limiting factor. &nbsp,

” Frequently, small businesses and individuals are shielded from immediate effect by broader plan adjustments”, said American economic columnist Mr Daryl Guppy, even the CEO and founder of Guppytraders.com.

He noted that US economic policy may have a far greater impact on Chinese usage habits than US tariffs and punishment. &nbsp,

The main effect may be price changes for imported American items.

Next THE FED?

China’s central bank has implemented a number of smaller cuts, including a policy interest rate reduction of 0.2 % and a reduction of banks ‘ reserve requirements by half a percentage point, despite the Fed’s aggressive stance in cutting rates. &nbsp,

However, Mr. Guppy made it clear that the PBOC’s actions did not directly affect the US’s subsequent actions. &nbsp,

According to Mr. Guppy,” PBOC policy decisions are not made in a knee-jerk effect to US policy.” Lower rates often lead to a higher consumer and business confidence because they lower the cost of loans and paying off debt.

Experts believe Beijing’s factual response to the US Fed price cuts could also provide some much-needed information into its possible future actions.

According to Mr Bell, China generally “has had a very distinct economic policy platform than the Fed’s interest-rate focused strategy”.

” For much of the early 2000s, China pursued a dollar nail, and after that, a much more quantity-driven model focused on the quantity of credit rather than their cost”, Mr Bell told CNA. &nbsp,

He also explained that China was “more insulated”, because of its relatively” closed” investment account, at least until 2015, which helped it experience fewer spillovers from international financial situations. Companies and individuals are prohibited from moving money into and out of the country under strict regulations in a sealed capital account.

China focused on a lot of fiscal and credit stimulus when extreme crises struck and threatened to spread through the trade channel.

Some believe that Chinese politicians should concentrate on resolving these internal problems, such as revitalizing the faltering business, which may call for a more subtle approach this time around.

” China’s emotions are tempered by the demands of the local economy and policy information”, he said. ” US Fed rates movements are a factor that may make it easier, or more difficult, ( for China ) to continue with an appropriate domestic policy”, said Mr Guppy.

Although Mr. Bell believes that China” should not be in a location where Fed moves matter little,” he also acknowledges that “any global circumstances,” including Fed rate policy, had have” a more important impact on the Foreign economy.”

” But that is not a given, many more a representation of lacking plan activities in Beijing”, Mr Bell added. &nbsp,

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China’s e-payment systems WeChat, Alipay dominate its cashless society. Can they repeat their success in Southeast Asia?

In May, the lodge started accepting digital payments on WeChat Spend and Alipay in its bars, restaurants, resort resort and gift shop – as well as for suite stays. The hotel confirmed there had been a rise in the number of customers using Taiwanese e-payment techniques, despite declining to disclose official statistics.

Another Taiwanese firm that has benefited is nearby bike-sharing controller Anywheel, whose fresh “mini-app” registered over 4, 500 new customers from China within its first quarter of launching in September. There were” three times more people registered with 86 amounts over a period of six times”, the company said, referring to China’s region code.

However, it has n’t just been big-name businesses that have been accepting digital yuan. Around 10,000 hawkers were accepting payments on WeChat, according to official records from the Singapore Tourism Board (STB). &nbsp,

Ms. Rachel Chua, 50, who runs a consume stall in the Maxwell Food Centre, claimed that Taiwanese tourists may use Alipay “even for something as little as 30-cent cell boxes.” To draw their attention, she displays important WeChat Spend and Paypal evidence at the front of her barn, she said. &nbsp,

But some Taiwanese visitors, like Ms Li Xiang, 36, from Guangxi, who travelled to Singapore with her partner during Golden Week, also rely on cash and cash to pay for their little payments”. Just in case, we exchanged some cash. We can use WeChat and Alipay in the shopping malls but smaller places, like some hawker stalls, do n’t accept it,” Ms Li told CNA. &nbsp,

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Vietnamese fishers attacked in South China Sea: State media

HANOI: Ten Vietnamese fishers were violently robbed in the disputed South China Sea, state media reported on Wednesday (Oct 2), with an official saying the attackers came from Chinese-flagged vessels. The men were reportedly beaten with iron bars and robbed of thousands of dollars worth of fish and equipment on SundayContinue Reading

Durian farmers in Malaysia vie to offer more premium varieties to hungry Chinese consumers

“This is another new opportunity, because in terms of fruit wise, consumers (prefer) freshness. So fresh durian is a very new thing for consumers, and definitely, we have a lot of big demand from the China market,” said Mr Tan Sue Yee, CEO of Malaysian durian supplier Top Fruits.

“The biggest challenge is fresh durians have a shorter shelf life, so we need to do it in a very fast way, and we are only able to do it by air shipment,” he added.

For more than a decade, the company has been shipping frozen durians to China, which has become its biggest overseas market and accounts for about 60 per cent of its total exports.

Mr Tan said the chance to export fresh durians has opened doors to introduce more varieties to the Chinese market.

It could also inspire more local entrepreneurs to invest in agribusiness, as well as encourage farmers to adopt better farming practices and improve the quality of their products, he added.

He said that while the most popular varieties are Musang King and Black Thorn, the company will “slowly focus more” on premium ones like D198, Golden Phoenix and IOI.

“(In) Malaysia, we have about 200 types of variety for the Chinese consumers, but we have to find the right variety and the right quantity for us to export,” he said.

While neighbouring countries such as Thailand and Vietnam have had a head start in exporting fresh durian, Malaysian farmers told CNA they are confident in the unique quality of their thorny fruit.

Durian Academy founder Lim Chin Khee said: “We are going for the premium market. That’s why I think it’s good that … we (sell) much more expensive (durians).

“Malaysia focusing on the premium market is the right path.”Continue Reading

Analysis: Xi tempers expectations on economic goals but could act ‘earlier’, more ‘decisively’ in 2025

SINGAPORE: A specific remark made by Chinese President Xi Jinping to regional authorities during a recent visit to the city in northwest Lanzhou, which was located along the Yellow River, caught the attention of foreigners in China. The statement was n’t about environmental protection.

Mr. Xi’s alleged statement,” Strive to achieve the full-year economic and social growth goals,” is a small change from the company command he made just months before.

Following China’s financial reform-focused Second Plenum conference held in July, his text therefore was stronger and clearer – that goals must be achieved “unwaveringly”.

This shift in tone, yet” subtle”, did not go unnoticed among spectators. &nbsp,

” Where usually we expect to observe phrases such as ‘ completely determined’ or ‘ unwavering,’ ( Mr Xi’s use of ) the word’ strive’ emphasises the effort and not the outcome”, wrote Mr John Browning, managing director of BANDS Financial, a Hong Kong-based commodity and economical futures broker, in his newsletter.

Others say it was n’t just a change in rhetoric. Experts who spoke to CNA said the changing tone was a representation of Mr. Xi’s tacit acknowledgment of the complex problems that are currently confronting China’s economy and that it is trying to temper anticipation. Beijing is still formally committed to its 5 % growth goal for 2024. &nbsp,

According to Mr. Matteo Giovannini, a senior finance manager at the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China ( ICBC ) and non-resident associate fellow at the Center for China and Globalization,” Chinese officials are frequently very deliberate in their wording.” He added that the linguistic change may be a” sign that economic pressures are mounting, and that the leadership is managing expectations.

Mr Xi’s transition from a “more resolute’ unwaveringly’ to significantly more careful’ strive to accomplish’ suggests a recognition ( from him ) of the difficulties in achieving China’s 2024 growth targets but certainly a whole admission that the target is unattainable”, said Mr Giovannini.

He adds:” While the change in language seems gentle, in the context of Taiwanese social conversation, even small variations in wording may indicate broader motives”.

Experts told CNA that it’s a probable indicator that Beijing is reviewing its strategy, which may help to set the stage for more effective policy changes in the upcoming year. &nbsp, &nbsp,

A SHIFT IN TONE: FROM “UNWAVERING” TO “STRIVING”

Although the appearance is not uncommon, it has been used numerous times throughout history.

Mr. Xi urged leaders to” strive to achieve the goals and tasks for economic and social growth” in February 2020, when the pandemic greatly burdened the economy and China broke with more than a quarter-century history by absolving China of its annual economic growth goal.

He repeated it in July 2022 after a weekly Politburo’s financial meeting, telling officers to” try to achieve the best results feasible”. &nbsp,
 
He once again said,” Strive to achieve the various targets and tasks of economic and social development,” at the central economic work conference in December of last year.

Some experts do n’t think it represents a significant policy change despite Mr. Xi’s soft tone. &nbsp,

Top leaders appear to have already accepted the reality that the growth target is unlikely to be met despite the change in the economic landscape, according to Ms. Guo Shan, partner at Hutong Research.

” This is likely due to the economy’s structural soundness, with auto sales improving, employment stabilising, and high-tech industries outperforming”, Ms Guo said. ” Rather than achieving an exact GDP figure, the leadership appears more focused on addressing long-term structural issues.”

Last Saturday ( Sep 14), China’s National Bureau of Statistics released its economic data for August, with most indicators falling short of expectations. &nbsp,

Retail sales, industrial value added, and year-to-date fixed-asset investment ( FAI ) grew by 2.1 per cent, 4.5 per cent, and 3.4 per cent year-on-year, respectively- each lower than in July, even with recent policy support. &nbsp,

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The moon’s dimming light: China sees lacklustre mooncake sales as consumers refuse to bite

SINGAPORE: Instead of buying mooncakes for the Mid-Autumn Event this year, consultant Ms Liu Siqi decided to save money and cook her own at a factory in Guangzhou, before reuniting with her home in her home, Foshan.

” I was considering whether to get them especially since Mid-Autumn is a unique time”, Ms Liu, 23, told CNA. However, I do n’t find them particularly tasty, and I believe the holiday mark-up is excessive. &nbsp,

With her eight handmade mooncakes, the recent graduate remarked that she could save up to four yuan ( US$ 0.56 ) a piece.

That’s actually as cakes prices have fallen this time. &nbsp,

According to research by Mashangying, the average market price dropped from 85.69 renminbi in 2023 to 83.36 renminbi. &nbsp,

The China Bakery and Confectionery Industry Association also found that the majority of the cheap product boxes are under 60 renminbi, and the majority of the major cakes gift boxes are more economical this time.

However, it seems as though the once-dazzling autumn pastry’s glow may have lost its appeal among consumers, with businesses also suffering from subpar sales despite the lower price point.

” We always ( purchase ) so many mooncakes during Mid-Autumn, and this year is no different”, Ms Liu said.

“( This year ) I wondered, if I brought home another ( store-bought ) box, would my family really need it”?

According to observers, it reflects new spending patterns in China, particularly among younger consumers, as individuals become more observant and pragmatic with their choices for both purchases and spending. &nbsp,

China’s extremely competitive cakes business was valued at a staggering 20 billion yuan in 2019, but revenue have decreased since the pandemic and merchants have continued to struggle. &nbsp,

While cakes sales in 2023 crossed pre-COVID rates, generating more 22 billion renminbi, the forecast this year is dimmed. &nbsp,

Cakes production is estimated to be about 300, 000 kilograms, down from 320, 000 kilograms in 2023. However, profits are projected to decline to 2019’s levels, according to a market trend statement released last month by the China Bakery and Confectionery Industry Association. &nbsp,

SIMPLICITY OVER LUXURY&nbsp,

In China, pastries are more than just a snack. Regarded as a symbol of luxury and extravagance, they are traditionally given to family, friends and relatives during the annual Mid Autumn Festival, which fell on Tuesday ( Sep 17 ). &nbsp,

The majority of Chinese buyers have become “more pragmatic”, said Ms Olivia Plotnick, chairman of Wai Social, a Shanghai-based social media marketing company– which is “in collection with broader market changes” .&nbsp,

A greater emphasis on practicality, affordability, and real value is being fueled by rising economic pressures and changing consumer values, according to Ms Plotnick. &nbsp,

” When it comes to traditional products such as mooncakes, this manifests in ( consumers ) choosing simplicity and meaningfulness over luxury”.

Ms. Liu, one of the less financially savvy shoppers, attributed this year’s decline in mooncake purchases to China’s overall economic situation. &nbsp,

” Everyone is being more budget-conscious. It’s quite normal for people to scale down their spending in such situations”, she said. ” I think it’s due to the overall economic situation, which is n’t great this year, including my personal financial situation, which is not as good as last year”.

The slowing economy and continued anti-corruption drive, as well as quality issues, are contributing factors to the decline, according to some experts.

According to Julien Lapka, founder of Inner Chapter, a brand strategy and insight studio with a base in Shanghai, a nationwide crackdown on bribery and corporate gifting negatively impacted sales this year. &nbsp,

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