Keeping things on the same site
According to a political analyst, the government’s internal workings could be more destructive to its unity than physical forces or the opposition’s.
The Bhumjaithai and United Thai Nation ( UTN) parties, which are the ruling Pheu Thai Party’s two largest conservative coalition partners, play a key role in maintaining overall harmony in government, particularly in terms of how astutely the Pheu Thai Party governs its relationship.
Despite the opposition’s threat to immediately record a no-confidence motion– its most powerful tool– against the Paetongtarn Shinawatra administration, many observers reckon it would be doubtful to sink the government, regardless of the impact it may generate.
A plausible argument boils down to the” extremely deal” Srettha Thavisin’s leadership and Pheu Thai and the conservative parties reportedly struck when the first Pheu Thai-led administration was established in 2023.
The agreement, which is believed to have been brokered by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who has a lot of influence over Pheu Thai, was allegedly reached a while before Pheu Thai abandoned the then-Move Forward Party ( MPF ) and decided to form a coalition with the conservative camp.
Pheu Thai immediately became known as a “neo-conservative” group tasked with leading the right-wing alliance in fending off the fast expanding MFP, then dissolved and reborn as the Women’s Party.
The cause said that even though the Pheu Thai-led state, now headed by Ms Paetongtarn, appears to have embraced conservative, the “marriage of comfort” with the right-wing events is anything but agreeable.
Although Pheu Thai may be a Bhumjaithai and UTN alliance, there have also been instances when the judgement group has found a thorn in its area between the two groups.
The cause said there is a continuous, subtle competition between the three functions.
Political parties, after all, need to prepare for upcoming elections, and winning in surveys will undoubtedly help them gain support from friends.
Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai have enjoyed a bit of a love-hate connection. The two functions are in fierce competition in some elections, most notably in the constituency-rich Northeast, where Pheu Thai recently held influence in the middle region and Bhumjaithai in the lower one. However, the MFP’s significant expansion in their lands led to a significant loss in the 2023 general election.
Pheu Thai, assisted by Thaksin, has been trying to recapture lost ground through its bid to recreate red-shirt help. In the process, the group will also seem to grow into districts controlled by Bhumjaithai.
When Thaksin accused some coalition events of not being effective as a team, citing the lack of their ministers from a cupboard meeting on December 11 next year, when two senior decrees were on the plan, it became clear that Pheu Thai and its traditional partners were at odds with one another.
In a conference held in Hua Hin on December 13th, Thaksin claimed that the events should step down if they were unwilling to do so.
Energy Minister Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, the head of the UTN Party, and Deputy Agriculture Minister Akkhara Prompow, both of whom were absent from the Dec. 11 gathering, were Palang Pracharath Party’s former leader.
Anutin Charnvirakul, the head of the Bhumjaithai Party and interior minister, was forced to reschedule a doctor’s visit to attend the meeting after Prommin Lertsuriyadej’s secretary-general called him.
Thaksin’s effect, according to the cause, could well be construed as Pheu Thai’s walk toward its alliance partners.
They have more or less ignored Thaksin’s note.
The former prime minister just fired a clean salvo, this time straight at Bhumjaithai. When the Bhumjaithai head came out against a bill proposed by Pheu Thai to avert reasons for military coups, he chided Mr. Anutin for putting on a “handsome” wall.
Since officials create conditions for military action, Mr. Anutin claimed the bill would be futile. He said in laughter that he projected being “handsome” quite too late.
According to the cause, Bhumjaithai, which is closely aligned with a number of Senate members, has shown it is not a Pheu Thai lackey and you enjoy brinkmanship if necessary.
In the interim, the UTN’s attempt to lower energy bills to 3.70 ringgit per unit has also stung Pheu Thai unfairly, which may have outperformed the ruling party.
Pheu Thai was not going to allow UTN get credit for the reductions in energy bills, according to observers. At a recent rally for the provincial administrative organization ( PAO ) chairman, Thaksin vowed that the government would implement the price reduction before the end of the year.
Pheu Thai, a member of the UTN, was accused of stealing the UTN plan and trying to undermine the party, which sparked speculation that Mr. Pirapan might be fired as a deputy prime minister and energy secretary in a cabinet reshuffle.
Thaksin, however, insisted that Mr. Pirapan was staying put and poured cold waters on the debate. Thaksin claimed that he and Mr. Pirapan were in conversations about cutting their energy bills and that they both spoke the same dialect.
Anutin: A’ good-looking’ brother
All gaze are on local elections
The participation of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in the election campaign has caused an unprecedented amount of attention for the elections for Provincial Administration Organization ( PAO ) presidents and members in 47 provinces, which is typically a low-key event.
Thaksin has served as a battle aide to Pheu Thai individuals, earning a reputation as the de facto leader of the decision Pheu Thai Party. His keen membership has helped to highlight these regional elections.
Today’s PAO contests are seen largely as a three-horse race between Pheu Thai, the main opposition People’s Party ( PP ), and the Bhumjaithai Party, although Bhumjaithai insists it has not officially fielded candidates.
Political observers predict that candidates with connections to Bhumjaithai will win provincial elections and that Thaksin’s campaign trail will help turn what would otherwise be program elections into attentively watched polls.
Pheu Thai has fielded individuals in 14 regions, with Thaksin focusing his work on those where Pheu Thai candidates are running neck-and-neck with Bhumjaithai-affiliated prospects.
Si Sa Ket and Nakhon Phanom, two provinces in northern Si, have gained popularity as the most closely watched tribes as candidates supported by both parties are contesting.
During a recent campaign function in Si Sa Ket, the former prime minister took aim at the Education Ministry, which is under the guidance of Bhumjaithai’s Pol Gen Permpoon Chidchob.
His censure sparked a reaction from Siripong Angkasakulkiat, a near secretary to Pol Gen Permpoon, who stepped in to understand the president’s actions and efficiency.
As social observers see Thaksin’s criticism as a representation of how volatile the political landscape is for Pheu Thai in these elections, Mr. Siripong defended his statement as an attempt to win over voters.
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok’s Institute, told the Bangkok Post that Pheu Thai appears to be under force in these nearby events.
While the ruling gathering commands a large help base, it does not have a distinct advantage to maintain a win, particularly when it comes to economic support, often referred to as “ammunition” for its candidates.
According to Mr. Stithorn, Pheu Thai will have a difficult time winning in Si Sa Ket, Bung Kan, and Chiang Rai because Bhumjaithai is known for being generous with the candidates it supports.
In addition, the “blue candidates,” which refer to those affiliated with the Bhumjaithai Party, are expected to prevail in several fiercely competitive southern provinces that the Democrats and the United Thai Nation ( UTN) Party have also contested.
If Bhumjaithai can gain traction in local politics in Phuket, Krabi, and Phangnga, these victories will help the party gain ground, easing the way for its gradual political dominance of the southern region. Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai will continue to partner as coalition allies despite the fierce competition in local elections, he added.
The main opposition party, according to Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, a lecturer in political science at the National Institute of Development Administration ( Nida ), should not be excluded despite the fact that it did not prevail in the previous PAO elections in 29 provinces.
In today’s race, the PP has fielded candidates in 17 provinces where the party is deemed most prepared, and it is considered a serious contender in Chiang Mai, according to Mr Phichai.
The poll’s outcome will depend on whether many middle-class voters who back the PP cast their ballots. Due to the equal number of supporters, he claimed, Pheu Thai and the PP are locked in a close fight in Chiang Mai.
In addition to Chiang Mai, the PP may be able to make inroads in Samut Prakan, Samut Songkhram, Rayong, Chanthaburi, and Trat, and even in the southern province of Surat Thani, said the analyst.
Using a policy platform and conducting fieldwork, led by Pita Limjaroenrat, former leader of the now-dissolved Move Forward Party, the PP is reportedly gaining traction in these provinces.
However, the analyst noted that Pheu Thai retains a strategic advantage, not only through its ability to rally support but also thanks to its financial backing, he added.
Several PAO presidents resigned before their terms ran out on December 19, which made it necessary to hold elections within 60 days. Elections are taking place today for those who have served their terms.