South China Sea: Why the Philippines and China are on a collision course

For years, Manila and Beijing have been at odds over submerged reefs in the South China Sea.

But something has changed recently. Then, the maritime squabbles are taking place in full view of the broadcast media. This is the second time in recent months that Spanish journalists have captured a close-up face close to the reef, also known as Ren Ai Reef, Ayungin Shoal, or Second Thomas Shoals.

This is not a coincidence. The Spanish government has made it a point to highlight what it has referred to as China’s” savage pressure” in asserting control over what Manila claims to be its waters.

” This time, I believe, there has been a major change. According to retired Colonel Raymond Powell of Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center, it is what I refer to as an assertive clarity plan.

The Spanish government started providing regional media with more video of the encounters in January. By the summer, it was boarding boats and plane headed for the disputed waters with an increasing number of journalists, including the BBC.

Col. Powell claims that” showing China’s grey area businesses has been like turning on a light.”

These innovative strategies seem to have taken China by surprise.

According to Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies’ Oriana Skylar Mastro,” We observed a slight pause in China’s activities ,” the strategy initially appeared to be working.

Beijing relaxed, and Manila was able to create some re-supply goes to an island it has on Second Thomas Shoal— a Sierra Madre, an old getting dispatch from World War II.

It was purposefully left on the coral in 1999. Since then, as the rusting hulk has slowly started to disintegrate, a small group of Spanish marines have kept lone watch aboard it. In 2014, a BBC crew boarded the vessel. Perhaps then, it was in bad shape, with waves splashing through the building and enormous holes in its sides.

According to the majority of experts, China has been willing to persevere. China’s coast guard has permitted resupplies to the Sierra Madre to proceed when ties between Beijing and Manila have been excellent. They have moved to block the supplies boats when ties have soured.

However, Beijing believes that the Sierra Madre won’t last forever and that eventually, as the ship sinks into the water, the Philippines may be forced to leave the troops.

During the six times that former president Rodrigo Duterte served as president, that notion seemed reasonable. However, the Philippines’ foreign legislation has changed dramatically since the election of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. next month.

Not only has President Marcos changed Mr. Duterte’s strategy of cozying up to Beijing, but he has also thoroughly re-embraced the empire with the United States and started shouting aloud about Chinese incursions into the Exclusive Economic Zone of Manila, which is 200 nautical miles long.

There is more. Food and water are not the only items the Philippines has been transporting to the Sierra Madre for supplies works, according to resources in Manila. They claim that it has been secretly transporting building supplies like staging and plaster. The goal was to repair the rusting fleet.

Col. Powell says,” It’s very difficult to see how they could expand the deliver’ life.” ” I believe we are approaching a crisis level. The Sierra Madre is about to come to an end. It might disintegrate very rapidly.

Manila and Beijing may be becoming more assertive as a result of this fresh sense of urgency. On Ayungen Shoal, the Philippines is frantically trying to hold onto its position. Beijing is reiterating its strength once more, determined that the Sierra Madre won’t succeed.

But what happens if the Sierra Madre does eventually disintegrate into the South China Sea’s blue waters, or the West Philippine Sea as it is known in Manila?

Did Beijing intervene and make an effort to take over the coast, as it has in other parts of the South China Sea? Did Manila make an effort to anchor a different ship on Ayungin Shoal? How did Washington respond, then?

No, no one can predict when that day will arrive, possibly very quickly.