Refusing to fade away
The People’s Party (PP) has emerged from relative obscurity since the leadership changed on Aug 9 last year.
There are compelling reasons for the main opposition party to try and thrust itself back in the spotlight. For starters, it is in a race against time to make last-ditch efforts to woo voters ahead of the Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) chairman polls in 47 provinces on Feb 1.
The party, which has not won a single PAO chief poll in 29 other provinces where elections have been held so far, is desperate to boost support in local politics. This is integral to seeking victory in a general election.
The PP badly needs to be visible through inter-personal contacts, which only direct canvassing can deliver. The party knows that ramping up its profile on social media alone is not a winning formula when many upcountry voters are not hooked on smartphones.
In various constituencies, the party has “localised” policies to attract voters, such as budget redistribution to give PAOs financial independence and revamping public utilities.
Critics believe the PP recognises that national issues do not resonate with the wants and needs of locals. For example, constitutional amendments, which the PP has put at the top of its agenda on national issues, are far too complicated to grasp and, therefore, rank low in terms of relevance in the eyes of many PAO voters.
A political expert said that in order to do well in PAO chief elections, the PP must expand its support base; in other words, make substantial inroads in areas dominated by powerful political families in the provinces.
These clans have consolidated their influence, thanks largely to the patronage system in which politicians claim credit for development projects in their localities and come to the aid of needy residents.
Although this system is losing traction with younger voters, it is still practised among a population which grew up in an era when politicians would attend funerals with a wreath and hand out cash to help with the cremation cost.
The PP realises it must fend off Thaksin Shinawatra, the alleged de facto leader of the ruling Pheu Thai Party, who has capitalised on the patronage tactic and is working overtime at reviving it to the party’s advantage in the Feb 1 PAO chief polls.
The odds may now favour the PP as Mr Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut topped the list of politicians who people would prefer to be prime minister, according to a National Institute of Development Administration (Nida) poll released last month.
The poll was conducted from Dec 19–24 among 2,000 participants nationwide as part of its quarterly poll on politicians’ and parties’ approval ratings.
Almost 30% of respondents chose Mr Natthaphong as their favourite candidate for the premiership, citing his political principles and rapport with younger voters.
In second place was Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who was favoured by 29% of the respondents, who cited her background in business and the modern perspective that she brings to the job.
About 14.4% of respondents said they were undecided — putting the category in third place overall — followed by Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister Pirapan Salirathavibhaga from the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party, whom respondents considered an experienced and friendly legal expert.
However, the road ahead to the next general election in less than three years’ time is strewn with obstacles for the PP, and the hardest one is coming this year.
The trouble began on Aug 7 last year when the Constitutional Court dissolved the Move Forward Party (MFP), the PP’s predecessor, and banned 11 of its leaders from politics for 10 years. This was after they were accused of engineering acts to try and amend the lese majeste law, which the court interpreted as undermining the constitutional monarchy. The PP was formed two days later.
But the dissolution provided grounds for lawyer Teerayut Suwankesorn to petition the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) to investigate former MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat and 44 MFP lawmakers who co-initiated a bid to amend the lese majeste law. This, according to Mr Teerayut, constituted a severe breach of the MP code of ethics.
The NACC has since indicted the 44 MPs in the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Persons Holding Political Positions. If found guilty, they will face a mandatory life ban from politics.
Mr Natthaphong, meanwhile, puts the legal wrangle involving the PP MPs down to twisted rules that allow an independent agency, understood to be the NACC, to be used as a political tool to sabotage a party.
He insisted that what is happening to the 44 MPs is symptomatic of the ill health and uncertain future Thai politics finds itself in.
Even if the MPs, who have all moved to the PP, were eventually found guilty by the Supreme Court, the PP would still have plenty of quality manpower left to continue its endeavours and grow stronger.
“Regardless of a purge, the PP is willing and fully able to soldier on as long as the people are behind us,” the party leader said.
A major political gamble
Just four months into its term, the Paetongtarn Shinawatra administration has approved, in principle, a bill that would legalise casinos as part of entertainment complexes, thereby sparking a controversy.
Thaksin: Taking pressure off daughter
What is catching public attention is that the casino-entertainment complex project was not one of the ruling Pheu Thai Party’s campaign pledges ahead of the 2023 general election.
The swift move has fuelled speculation among observers, with some suggesting it may be driven by big business interests.
Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University in Chon Buri, told the Bangkok Post that the government is moving quickly on the casino-entertainment complex project, which reflects that it prioritises investors. Following former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s return from self-imposed exile, the project has gained momentum and received support from the business sector, he said.
Mr Olarn said the project is believed to be pushed hard because Pheu Thai is seeking to bolster support ahead of the next general election. Despite having won many Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) chairman elections so far, its margin of victory may not be wide enough to be a sure bet in the next general election in 2027.
Thaksin, widely seen as Pheu Thai’s de facto leader, has been hitting the campaign trail to support Pheu Thai candidates in PAO chairman elections, taking place nationwide on Feb 1. However, the party’s popularity appears to be falling short of expectations, said Mr Olarn.
“Several Pheu Thai wins were thanks to the networking and connections of political canvassers, and Thaksin knows this strategy will not be enough to secure victory in the next election,” he said.
According to Mr Olarn, the ruling party needs to secure new sources of funding to lure as many MPs as possible into contesting the next polls under the party’s banner.
“If Thaksin sees this project as a way to bring in financial backers, he knows he must act quickly while the party has full power to run the government,” he said.
The analyst believed that Thaksin might prefer to make himself an idle target of criticism generated by the casino controversy in a bid to divert harsh comments about the policy away from Ms Paetongtarn, his daughter, and give the ruling party some room to breathe.
“Thaskin will keep pushing this scheme harder than ever and shift the focus from his beloved daughter to himself. It’s a better recourse than letting the prime minister be a sitting duck.
“The party’s key figures have already lost all credibility, so Thaksin has to take all the criticism himself,” said Mr Olarn.
Critics argue that lax law enforcement makes the policy a risky gamble for the country.
Weak enforcement of laws could lead to a proliferation of problems such as money laundering, crime and drug-related offences. These risks could outweigh the promised economic benefits and could plunge the country deep into social degradation.
Supporters of the initiative, however, claim that entertainment complexes will be a big win for the country and attract up to 500 billion baht in foreign investment, boost tourism revenue, and create at least 20,000 jobs per complex.
Thaksin, in particular, noted that Thailand lags behind neighbouring countries despite the idea of allowing casinos to operate legally within an entertainment complex having been floated during the Thai Rak Thai administration — long before Singapore opened its first complex.
According to Thaksin, an estimated 2.5 to 4 million Thais are involved in illegal online gambling. Bringing gambling “above ground” could allow the government to regulate the industry properly and earn tax revenue from the business.
Thaksin also said most casino entertainment schemes benefit related industries.
These complexes will be similar to the ones in Las Vegas, which also house sports stadiums, conference halls, water parks and even an ice rink.
Mr Olarn said if the Pheu Thai-led government prioritises this policy, it should be transparent rather than “sneaky” about it, he said, apparently referring to the inclusion of casinos in the complexes.
The project should be put up for a referendum because it is a highly divisive issue that demands public consensus, according to the analyst.
Thaksin said last weekend, however, that a referendum is unnecessary.
“No. Not necessary,” Thaksin said, responding to the referendum suggestion by critics, including Democrat Party list MP Jurin Laksanawisit.
This week, Pakorn Nilprapunt, secretary-general of the Council of State (CoS), the government’s legal adviser, said the bill needs no referendum because the policy has already been approved by parliament.
The CoS has 50 days to finish reviewing the entertainment complex bill before forwarding it to the House, according to Mr Pakorn.