National politics in 2023 saw drama, disappointments and intrigue, from the Move Forward Party failing to govern despite its triumph in the May election; Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha calling time on his political career; a supposed burying of the hatchet between the red and yellow shirts; jailed former premier Thaksin Shinawatra’s lengthy hospitalisation outside prison; and the Democrat Party’s continued decline.
1. Move Forward’s fate
Just like Pheu Thai in the previous election, the Move Forward Party (MFP) won the most seats in this year’s poll but was unable to be in, let alone lead, the government.
The MFP emerged victorious from the general election in May by grabbing 151 seats and stoking people’s expectations.
Despite subsequent attempts by the MFP to put together a coalition from parties in the “pro-democracy” camp, including Pheu Thai, government formation proved futile after the then MFP leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, failed to secure enough votes from the Senate to become prime minister.
Many senators cited Mr Pita’s media-shareholding court case to justify voting against his bid for prime minister.
The choice of premier decides which party leads the government. In this case, Pheu Thai, the second biggest party, tore up a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on government formation it signed with the MFP and other parties and turned to those in the previous administration, including Palang Pracharath, United Thai Nation and Bhumjaithai, to establish a new government.
The MFP has been relegated to become the main opposition party with its new leader, Chaithawat Tulathon, formally appointed opposition leader.
The MFP, however, has been a target of criticism and accused of being a reluctant opposition party by not acting swiftly in keeping the government in check. It was alleged the party was looking for an opportunity to “reunite” with Pheu Thai and eventually be welcomed into the government fold.
In the meantime, the Constitutional Court will issue its ruling on the media shareholding case against Mr Pita on Jan 24.
The court announced the date on Dec 20 after hearing the defence statement from Mr Pita, now the chief adviser of the main opposition party.
If the court finds Mr Pita ran for office while knowing he held shares in a media business — in this case, the long-defunct broadcaster iTV — he could lose his MP status.
The case was brought before the charter court by the Election Commission (EC), despite a recommendation from an EC sub-committee that it drop the charge that Mr Pita violated Section 151 of the Election Act.
Also, the court is scheduled to hand down a ruling in a case that could lead to the dissolution of the MFP on Jan 31.
This date was set after former MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat and current leader Chaithawat Tulathon gave testimonies earlier this month.
The case was filed by Theerayut Suwankesorn, a lawyer well known for his defence of Suwit Thongprasert, an ex-activist monk formerly known as Phra Buddha Isara.
Mr Theerayut asked the court to rule if the MFP’s policy on Section 112 of the Criminal Code, better known as the lese majeste law, was an attempt to overthrow the constitutional monarchy.
Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha was appointed a privy councillor on Oct 29 after retiring from politics. He was the 29th PM and served for 9 years. Wat Pho FACEBOOK PAGE
2. Gen Prayut walks away
The electoral defeat of the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) and United Thai Nation (UTN) Party was the main catalyst for Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha calling it a day as prime minister after nine years in power.
But it was not a crash landing for the former premier, who came to power through the May 22, 2014 military coup.
He has been entrusted with serving the crown by being named the latest privy councillor after handing over the reins of power to Srettha Thavisin, who was nominated to become prime minister by the now-ruling Pheu Thai Party.
By agreeing to have his name put forth as the UTN’s prime ministerial candidate, alongside party leader Pirapan Salirathavibhaga after the May election, Gen Prayut showed himself harbouring ambitions to return as prime minister if the opportunity presented itself.
However, poor poll performances by both parties ruined that opportunity even though the 36-MP UTN — the party that looked upon Gen Prayut as its patriarch — joined the cabinet and was allocated A-grade ministries to supervise. Mr Pirapan was named deputy prime minister and energy minister and Pimphattra Wichaikul, industry minister. In addition, Anucha Nakasai was made deputy agriculture minister.
On July 11, Gen Prayut announced his decision to quit the party and go into political retirement, which also marked the disintegration of the “Three Por” triumvirate, which dominated the government for the previous nine years.
The “Three Pors” refers to Gen Prayut, former deputy prime minister Gen Prawit Wongsuwon and former interior minister Gen Anupong Paochinda, who together cemented post-coup power through two administrations.
With strong ties going back to their military days, the three generals were said to have had an unbreakable bond until Gen Anupong became the first of the three to declare he was turning his back on politics.
Gen Prayut’s appointment as privy councillor was indeed the end of what critics called coup-legacy politics. Although Gen Prawit has not said he will leave politics, he has been seen as taking a backseat in the PPRP, a former ruling party.
Gen Prayut’s privy councillor post requires him to remain politically neutral. It means he is no longer in the running for prime minister if the post should become vacant.
His Majesty the King’s appointment of Gen Prayut as a privy councillor was published in the Royal Gazette on Nov 29.
The announcement, dated Oct 21, said His Majesty had decided to exercise his authority under sections 10 and 11 of the 2017 constitution to appoint Gen Prayut as a member of his privy council, effective immediately.
Gen Prayut, 69, was the country’s 29th prime minister.
Since 1932, Thailand has had 30 premiers, only five of whom have been appointed to the council, which serves as an advisory body to the King.
They were Sanya Dharmasakti, Prem Tinsulanonda, Thanin Kraivichien, Surayud Chulanont and now Gen Prayut.
Srettha Thavisin with his cabinet outside Government House on Sept 5. He delivered his government’s policy statement to parliament on Sept 11. Chanat Katanyu
3. End to divisions?
Real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin currently heads the government that was built on the promise of dismantling deep-rooted political divisions.
The Pheu Thai Party which installed the 61-year-old former CEO of Sansiri Plc — one of the country’s most profitable real estate developers — as prime minister ditched the biggest post-election party and longstanding ally, the Move Forward Party (MFP), in favour of those in the previous administration.
The move may have irked the MFP, but it was hailed as a gilt-edged opportunity to build harmony between the red and yellow shirts who have been locked in a bitter feud for years.
The red shirts represent a large swathe of Pheu Thai supporters and the yellow shirts advocate a pro-monarchy and conservative political stand.
Pheu Thai is leading a coalition made up mostly of parties under the previous rightwing Prayut Chan-o-cha administration — the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party and the Bhumjaithai Party.
After more than a decade of conflict between red and yellow groups, the two opposing camps now appear to have buried the hatchet and joined forces to isolate the MFP, which is perceived as their main threat, according to observers.
Wanwichit Boonprong, a political science lecturer at Rangsit University, said the ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra’s homecoming and the alliance between Pheu Thai and the UTN and PPRP sent a message in political circles that the two opposing blocs will now unite against the MFP.
“The changing political circumstances have forced them to co-exist. I also believe the new government will last.
“Pheu Thai will have to transform into new conservatives and try to convince local political clans from the PPRP and the UTN to switch to its ranks,” Mr Wanwichit said.
At the same time, growing hostility has been detected between the red shirts and the dom som, a name given to zealous MFP supporters.
The two groups have been turning against each other since the Pheu Thai-led coalition came into inception.
The dom som have been critical of government policies, including Pheu Thai’s flagship 10,000-baht digital wallet scheme and the soft-power promotion initiative spearheaded by Pheu Thai leader, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s youngest daughter.
Thaksin Shinawatra arrives at Don Muang airport on Aug 22 before being sent to prison. Pattarapong Chatpattarasill
4. Thaksin saga
Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has managed to stoke as much controversy after returning to the country to serve a jail term as he did while in self-imposed exile overseas.
Thaksin, 74, who remains immensely influential in the ruling Pheu Thai Party, returned to Thailand on Aug 22, after 15 years of moving from country to country, to serve an eight-year prison term for abuse of power and graft.
However, he was held for only about 13 hours at Bangkok Remand Prison before being transferred to the Police General Hospital for health reasons, where he has remained since.
Doubts have grown as to whether Thaksin, whose eight-year sentence was reduced to one year following a royal pardon, is suffering from a serious illness and still needs intensive care outside prison, as claimed by the Department of Corrections (DoC).
In light of this, the DoC has issued a new regulation which allows for the detention of inmates outside of prison. Venues for detaining them include houses or buildings that are registered addresses.
The rule is being widely criticised as beneficial to Thaksin, who once announced that he would not spend a single day or night in jail.
According to people familiar with the regulation, including Deputy Prime Minister Somsak Thepsutin, Thaksin is eligible to be detained outside prison.
Dec 22 marked the 120th day of Thaksin’s stay at the Police General Hospital. Under Justice Ministry regulations, it was the DoC which decided whether the convicted ex-premier was to continue receiving treatment in an external facility or be transferred back to prison.
Opponents have been demanding unrestricted access to the hospital ward where Thaksin is said to have been treated so they can see first-hand if the jailed former premier was undergoing treatment there as claimed.
Back at the ruling Pheu Thai Party, the leadership has changed hands to those of Paetongtarn “Ung Ing” Shinawatra, Thaksin’s youngest daughter and his political heir apparent.
She was elected leader on Oct 27 with an even bigger goal on the horizon whereby she could take over from Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin should he be forced to step aside.
He is facing a formal complaint filed by serial petitioner, Srisuwan Janya, who has asked the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) to rule on the legality of Mr Settha buying a silk cloth for 6,000 baht and giving it to Ms Pantongtae during a mobile cabinet meeting in Nong Bua Lam Phu province earlier this month.
The complaint was to establish if the gift violated regulations governing government officials giving and receiving gifts under anti-corruption and morality laws, which limit the value of such gifts to 3,000 baht.
If the NACC rules that Mr Srettha was in the wrong, he could be told to step aside for Ms Paetongtarn, who was another Pheu Thai prime ministerial candidate at the last election, before his term ends.
Mr Sretta has occasionally referred to her as a “second prime minister”, though he seems happy enough in his job.
Ms Paetongtarn’s path to the premiership could also be a litmus test for the Pheu Thai Party’s new secretary-general Sorawong Thienthong as a kingmaker.
Political watchers are eager to see if Mr Sorawong, a former deputy public health minister, can follow in the footsteps of his father, Sanoh Thienthong, whose kingmaker skills were credited with propelling the likes of late former Chart Thai leader, Banharn Silpa-archa, former New Aspiration Party leader Chavalit Yongchaiyudh and Thaksin into Government House as prime minister.
Chalermchai Sri-on was elected as the 9th leader of the Democrat Party on Dec 9. Nutthawat Wichieanbut
5. Democrat travails
A crushing defeat in the May general election this year could spell the beginning of the end for the country’s oldest party, the Democrats.
The party is on a downward spiral that shows no sign of bottoming out, according to critics.
The party was seen as being split down the middle by a recent party assembly convened to elect a new leader.
Chalermchai Sri-on, the acting leader and former party secretary-general, was elected overwhelmingly, and uncontested at the assembly, with 88% of the vote to become the Democrats’ 9th leader.
However, dramatic twists defined the mood of party members during the leadership election, which split the Democrats into two camps, with the old guard pitted against the strong faction headed by Mr Chalermchai.
The Chalermchai camp insisted it had what it takes to reverse the party’s fortunes and make it great again.
He spoke on the back of the Democrats’ appalling poll performance in May when the party captured 25 seats — sharply down from the 52 it garnered in the 2019 general election.
Deep distrust of Mr Chalermchai was being voiced by opponents who included some party members sceptical about the new party leader’s ability to honour his word.
In the aftermath of the 2019 election, Mr Chalermchai, who was serving as party secretary-general at the time, vowed he would quit politics if the Democrats won fewer than 52 seats in this year’s polls.
Despite having witnessed the party’s disappointing performance in the polls, Mr Chalermchai not only remained a politician but also agreed to have his name thrown in the Democrat leadership hat by the faction he reportedly controls.
Ahead of the leadership contest, Mr Chalermchai nearly faced a tough challenge from Abhisit Vejjajiva, a former premier and party leader, who was nominated by Democrat patriarch, Chuan Leekpai.
Also vying for the leadership was Watanya “Madam Dear” Bunnag, who is chairwoman of the party’s political innovation committee.
However, she was unable to contest the leadership because she failed to win enough support at the meeting to waive a regulation requiring a candidate to have been with the party for five years. She defected from the Palang Pracharath Party last year.
Mr Abhisit, meanwhile, turned down Mr Chuan’s nomination and announced his resignation in the middle of the party assembly after a 10-minute talk with Mr Chalermchai to clear the air with the latter.
He was reported to have disagreed with Mr Chalermchai over how the party should be run.
Mr Abhisit previously quit as party leader and as an MP after the party’s poor performance in the 2019 election and retreated from party activities ahead of the prime ministerial vote in parliament in which Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha was elected premier.
In the wake of Mr Abhisit’s resignation from the party, more high-profile Democrats followed him out of the door, including Sathit Pitutecha, Sathit Wongnongtoey and Orn-anong Kanchanachusak.
Their departure has raised concerns about the party’s future with Mr Chalermchai at the helm. The underlying question was whether the party can reconnect with voters and rebuild support and trust.
Many even fear the party will devolve from a national political force into a minor party.