Concerned about whether the area will turn into a hot seat in the upcoming general election, Paroled ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra’s subsequent visit to Surin, one of the lower northern regions.
On July 14, Thaksin presided over a gathering of 334 amateur monks at Wat Suwan Wichit in the state’s Prasat city to celebrate His Majesty the King’s fifth birthday.
Although his visit was one of spiritual significance, Surin, where the political landscape has changed since last week’s polls, has received a lot of interest.
The Pheu Thai Party dominated Surin in the 2019 elections. The Bhumjaithai Party and the Palang Pracharath Party split the remaining chairs, which means the party won five out of seven.
But in next week’s general election, Pheu Thai lost ground to Bhumjaithai, whose control extended beyond Buri Ram, the group’s “political capital”.
Bhumjaithai captured five out of eight chairs available, while Pheu Thai’s promote was reduced to three seats.
Since receiving his pardon about six months ago, Thaksin has visited several provinces. In Chiang Mai, his native province, where the party lost to the main opposition, the Move Forward Party ( MFP), he among the first.
Political spectators concur that his journey to Surin, after a fortress for the ruling party, is part of the group’s plan to reclaim local assistance given his status as the de-facto president of Pheu Thai.
Diminishing political influence
For at least two factors, according to Olarn Thinbangtieo, a lecturer in political science at Burapha University, Thaksin needs to interact with different social families in order to help him regain Pheu Thai’s vote glory.
Since his return to Thailand in August, Thaksin’s credibility and image as” Tony”, a man of vision and a head of shift, has been ruined. He has not spent a time in prison, and he is frequently portrayed as the one who is blaming the Pheu Thai-led government.
Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin’s reputation has dwindled since the government’s development and so has that of Pheu Thai head Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s youngest girl and political successor.
Pheu Thai’s important statistics like Phumtham Wechayachai, Dr Prommin Lertsuridej and Dr Cholnan Srikaew have become politically destitute. This makes Thaksin to resume his position and restore ties with powerful political families throughout the nation.
But, Mr. Olarn said that it is impossible to form a political alliance without Thaksin having the means to protect the rights of those with whom he wants to align.
” Thaksin is known to cure his network of supporters as people, which is distinct from Bhumjaithai, which is known to treat them as lovers. These lovers are guaranteed a four-year be ]in the government ]. He said it differs from Thaksin’s practice of government reshuffles frequently.
Mr. Olarn claimed that he will not be able to entice social individuals into his ranks unless Thaksin alters his style. Also, Pheu Thai’s party-list program can be divided into two groups: lenders and widely-recognised numbers. If the party fails to entice high-profile images with credentials, it will face an uphill battle to win party-list tickets.
Mr. Olarn claimed that the group’s flagship policy, the digital wallet plan, has been put off by the delay in introducing it, which could have an impact on its election chances.
Olarn: Allies as’ people ‘
Battling two adversaries
Prathueng Muang-on, a social scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University, informed the Bangkok Post that Thaksin is aware of the party’s declining reputation in the lower reaches of the north. In 2019, Pheu Thai won seven out of 10 seats, but in next year’s elections, the number of votes shrank to four despite 11 votes being up for grabs.
The Bhumjaithai Party, whose control is growing in Ubon Ratchathani and Amnat Charoen, has lost ground to the ruling party. The coalition partner about made a push of the field, but its candidates also fared far behind the competition.
The Bhumjaithai Party’s electoral system and the rising popularity of the criticism MFP, according to Mr. Prathueng, are two wars that Pheu Thai needs to struggle. Bhumjaithai is likely to get more votes from the district system in the lower north. The popularity of the MFP ,]which is reflected ] in the party-list system, is also rising”, he said.
70 % of the entire seats were won by the Pheu Thai Party and the Bhumjaithai Party in the 2019 surveys. As for the party-list program, the number of votes garnered by Pheu Thai and MFP even accounted for 70 % of total vote.
Bhumjaithai may concentrate all assets in the district system and make use of its extensive networks of local officials and heath volunteers to its edge, Mr. Prathueng said, knowing it has a slim chance in the party-list program.
He claimed that Pheu Thai’s reputation had slowed down gradually rather than abruptly. The group did not mobilize enough resources in comparison to Bhumjaithai, and it had nothing to show off because it had been a long time without being the government’s ruling party.
According to Mr. Prathueng, the political climate in the area has changed and there is a slim chance that the Pheu Thai Party will take the lead. This is especially true in metropolitan areas. He noted the purple shirt activity, which was once the group’s core support team, has weakened.
” All of this suggests that Bhumjaithai will grow while Pheu Thai may shrink.” The MFP is obscuring its reputation. When Thaksin and his daughter made a attend, the audience waiting to greet them was noticeably small”, said Mr Prathueng, who is in charge of the school’s opinion surveys.
Prathueng: Walk Forward’ on the rise ‘
Pheu Thai’s religious head
Krumanit Sangphum, a Pheu Thai MP for Surin, said Thaksin’s active part in the group will boost native assistance and provide more assurance to the party individuals.
He claimed that Thaksin has earned the respect of the party members and has contributed significantly to the nation. With Thaksin’s vision and young generations of politicians led by his daughter, Pheu Thai will be stronger, he said.
When asked about potential strategies to regain control in the area, Mr. Krumanit said having good policy and devoted candidates is the key to winning in the electoral system.
” With an effective strategy, we can gain more seats in the lower northeastern region. But for Buri Ram, the]stronghold ] of Bhumjaithai, it is beyond reach. Other than that, we can penetrate and regain footing”, he said.
Bhumjaithai made a clean sweep of 10 seats in Buri Ram under Newin Chidchob, the de facto leader of Bhumjaithai. However, he said Thaksin’s July 14 visit had no political implications.
Since becoming prime minister, Thaksin has established connections with the region. He helped promote a number of local projects while on a Nok Khamin tour of this place. I think he just wanted to visit local people]after a long absence ]”, he said.
Krumanit: Buri Ram ‘ beyond reach ‘
Thaksin made a series of trips, known as the Nok Khamin tour, upcountry when he was in power.
Dr Cherdchai Tantisirin, a Pheu Thai MP and red-shirt leader, said efforts are underway to reunite red-shirt members who still have faith in the movement and its core belief.
During its peak, the movement threw its support behind Thaksin, drawn either by Thaksin’s charisma or the benefits afforded to them by his government’s populist policies. However, in recent years many were wooed away with similar policies by other parties or became disillusioned.
” We must reunite and reconnect. If we do n’t, we lose”, Dr Cherdchai said.
He claimed that at least 50 % of red-shirt members need to be stabilized because the rate has fallen to 30 %.
When asked about Thaksin’s release next month, he said that the movement will be united and that the Pheu Thai Party’s supporters will gain confidence. Thaksin is still admired by red-shirt members.
Unwavering Bhumjaithai
Sanong Thep-aksonnarong, a Bhumjaithai MP for Buri Ram, brushed off Thaksin’s visit to Surin, saying his presence did not bother the party.
He suggested that after the Pheu Thai lost ground to the MFP, Thaksin should arrange a trip to Chiang Mai to find out what the people there think.
The Bhumjaithai MP claimed that the region’s red-shirt movement is unimportant and that it is merely a loose association.
” Bhumjaithai is actively involved with the people, so Thaksin’s presence wo n’t affect our support base. We keep doing our job and that’s all”, he said.
If Mr. Sanong’s work was in the public interest, he also welcomed Thaksin’s plan to take up more tasks after his release next month.
Thaksin stated during the Surin visit that he would begin” taking up more roles” in August to deliver results to the public, despite not providing an explanation for the roles. After serving his jail term, Thaksin is widely believed to be working with the government.
Among the roles he can assume are an adviser to the prime minister and a special representative in a specific task, which must be only temporary, according to Wissanu Krea-ngam, the prime minister’s legal adviser.
Sanong: Unfazed by Thaksin’s visits