Concerned about whether the location does play a significant role in the upcoming general election, Paroled ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra’s recent explore to Surin, one of the lower northern provinces.
On July 14, Thaksin presided over a gathering of 334 amateur monks at Wat Suwan Wichit in the state’s Prasat city to celebrate His Majesty the King’s fifth birthday.
Although his visit was a spiritual one, Surin, where the social landscape has changed since last year’s elections, has received a lot of attention.
The Pheu Thai Party dominated Surin in the 2019 elections. The Bhumjaithai Party and the Palang Pracharath Party split the two remaining tickets, leaving the party with five out of seven.
But in next week’s general election, Pheu Thai lost ground to Bhumjaithai, whose control extended beyond Buri Ram, the group’s “political capital”.
Bhumjaithai captured five out of eight chairs available, while Pheu Thai’s promote was reduced to three seats.
Since being released on parole about six months ago, Thaksin has visited various regions. In Chiang Mai, his native province, where the party lost to the main opposition, the Move Forward Party ( MFP), he among the first.
Political spectators concur that his journey to Surin, after a fortress for the ruling party, is part of the group’s plan to reclaim local assistance given his status as the de-facto president of Pheu Thai.
Diminishing political influence
For at least two factors, according to Olarn Thinbangtieo, a lecturer in political science at Burapha University, Thaksin needs to interact with different social families in order to help him reclaim Pheu Thai’s vote glory.
Since his return to Thailand in August, Thaksin’s credibility and image as” Tony”, a man of vision and a head of shift, has been ruined. He has always spent a time in prison, and he is frequently portrayed as the one who is blaming the Pheu Thai-led government.
Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin’s reputation has dwindled since the government’s development and so has that of Pheu Thai head Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s youngest girl and political successor.
Pheu Thai’s important statistics like Phumtham Wechayachai, Dr Prommin Lertsuridej and Dr Cholnan Srikaew have become politically destitute. This makes Thaksin to resume his position and restore ties with powerful political families throughout the nation.
But, Mr. Olarn said that it is impossible to form a political alliance without Thaksin having the means to protect the rights of those with whom he wants to align.
” Thaksin is known to cure his network of supporters as people, which is distinct from Bhumjaithai, which is known to treat them as lovers. These lovers are guaranteed a four-year be ]in the government ]. He claimed that it differs from Thaksin’s frequent government shuffles.
Mr. Olarn claimed that unless Thaksin alters his style, he wo n’t be able to entice political parties to his side. Also, Pheu Thai’s party-list program can be divided into two groups: lenders and widely-recognised numbers. If the party fails to entice high-profile images with credentials, it will face an uphill battle to win party-list tickets.
Mr. Olarn claimed that the group’s flagship policy, the digital wallet plan, has lost credibility and may have an impact on its chances of winning the election.
Olarn: Allies as’ people ‘
Battling two enemy
Prathueng Muang-on, a social scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University, informed the Bangkok Post that Thaksin is aware of the party’s declining reputation in the lower reaches of the north. In 2019, Pheu Thai won seven out of 10 seats, but in next year’s elections, the number of votes shrank to four despite 11 chairs being up for grabs.
The Bhumjaithai Party, whose control is growing in Ubon Ratchathani and Amnat Charoen, has lost ground to the ruling party. The partnership partner nearly won the race, but its individuals also fared far behind the competitors.
The Bhumjaithai Party’s electoral method and the rising popularity of the criticism MFP, according to Mr. Prathueng, are two issues that Pheu Thai must face. Bhumjaithai is likely to get more votes from the district system in the lower north. The popularity of the MFP ,]which is reflected ] in the party-list system, is also rising”, he said.
70 % of the entire seats were won by the Bhumjaithai Party and the Pheu Thai Party in the 2019 elections. As for the party-list program, the number of seats garnered by Pheu Thai and MFP even accounted for 70 % of total vote.
Bhumjaithai may concentrate all sources in the district system and make use of its extensive networks of local officials and wellness volunteers, according to Mr. Prathueng, knowing that it has a slim chance in the party-list program.
He claimed that Pheu Thai’s decline in popularity was never a rapid decrease but rather a continuous collapse. The group did not mobilize enough resources in comparison to Bhumjaithai, and it had nothing to show off because it had been a long time without being the government’s ruling group.
According to Mr. Prathueng, the political climate in the area has changed and there is a slender chance that the Pheu Thai Party will take the lead. This is especially true in metropolitan areas. He noted the purple shirt activity, which was once the group’s core support team, has weakened.
” All of this suggests that Pheu Thai may shrink while Bhumjaithai did grow.” Its reputation is being surpassed by the MFP. When Thaksin and his daughter made a attend, the audience waiting to greet them was noticeably small”, said Mr Prathueng, who is in charge of the school’s opinion surveys.
Prathueng: Walk Forward’ on the rise ‘
Pheu Thai’s religious head
Krumanit Sangphum, a Pheu Thai MP for Surin, said Thaksin’s active part in the group will boost native assistance and provide more assurance to the party individuals.
He claimed that Thaksin has made a major impact on the nation and is well-liked by the party’s people. With Thaksin’s perspective and younger generations of lawmakers led by his child, Pheu Thai will get stronger, he said.
When asked about potential attempts to reestablish control in the area, Mr. Krumanit said it takes two things: good coverage and devoted candidates to succeed in the district program.
” With an efficient approach, we can get more seats in the lower northern region. But for Buri Ram, the]stronghold ] of Bhumjaithai, it is beyond reach. Other than that, we may reach and restore footing”, he said.
Bhumjaithai made a clean sweep of 10 votes in Buri Ram under Newin Chidchob, the de facto leader of Bhumjaithai. However, he said Thaksin’s July 14 attend had no social implications.
Since becoming prime secretary, Thaksin has had ties to the region. He helped promote a number of regional tasks while on a Nok Khamin tour of this place. I think he just wanted to visit nearby people]after a long presence ]”, he said.
Krumanit: Buri Ram ‘ beyond approach ‘
Thaksin made a series of visits, known as the Nok Khamin journey, upcountry when he was in strength.
Dr Cherdchai Tantisirin, a Pheu Thai MP and red-shirt chief, said efforts are underway to rejoin red-shirt members who still have faith in the activity and its main idea.
During its peak, the movement threw its support behind Thaksin, drawn either by Thaksin’s charisma or the benefits afforded to them by his government’s populist policies. However, in recent years many were wooed away with similar policies by other parties or became disillusioned.
” We must reunite and reconnect. If we do n’t, we lose”, Dr Cherdchai said.
Red-shirt membership has dropped to 30 %, and it needs to be stabilized by at least 50 %, he said.
When asked about Thaksin’s release the following month, he claimed that the movement will be united and that his supporters would be more confident in the Pheu Thai Party.
Unwavering Bhumjaithai
Sanong Thep-aksonnarong, a Bhumjaithai MP for Buri Ram, brushed off Thaksin’s visit to Surin, saying his presence did not bother the party.
He suggested that after the Pheu Thai lost ground to the MFP, Thaksin should arrange a trip to Chiang Mai to find out what the people there think.
The Bhumjaithai MP claimed that the region’s red-shirt movement is unimportant and that it is merely a loose association.
” Bhumjaithai is actively involved with the people, so Thaksin’s presence wo n’t affect our support base. We keep doing our job and that’s all”, he said.
If Mr. Sanong’s work was in the public interest, he also welcomed Thaksin’s plan to take up more tasks after his release next month.
Thaksin stated during the Surin visit that he would start” taking up more roles” in August to deliver results to the public, but he did not specify which roles he would assume. After serving his jail sentence, it is widely believed that Thaksin will work for the government.
Among the roles he can assume are an adviser to the prime minister and a special representative in a specific task, which must be only temporary, according to Wissanu Krea-ngam, the prime minister’s legal adviser.
Sanong: Unfazed by Thaksin’s visits