PAO polls vital ‘building blocks’

According to observers, fierce competition is anticipated for the Provincial Administration Organization ( PAO ) presidents in 47 provinces on February 1.

The parties are putting up polls to fill positions that have been filled by PAO presidents who have not yet served their terms, including Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai, and People’s Party ( PP ).

Before their term ended on December 19, 2024, some PAO president in different provinces resigned, making it necessary for elections to be held within 60 times. Leaders may elect candidates within 45 days to complete their terms.

After the 2014 military-led revolution, PAO elections were held for the first time on Dec 20, 2020, under the 2017 law and local election rules, which set the name end time on Dec 19, 2024.

The Bangkok Post spoke with observers to learn about how brutal the forthcoming elections for PAO leaders will be and what tactics candidates and their events may employ to win.

The spectators claim that the three parties see the elections as a chance to increase their support for the 2027 general election as a make-or-break chance.

In some provinces, the matchup takes the form of a strong battle between the PP and Pheu Thai, as seen in the Chiang Mai PAO vote.

Even though the celebration has publicly stated that it is not fielding everyone under its banner, Bhumjaithai is actively supporting candidates in many provinces. However, some key figures have been explicitly cheering for certain candidates, signalling their behind-the-scenes participation.

Help from local folks

Somchai Srisutthiyakorn, the previous election commissioner, claimed that powerful mobilization efforts and grass-roots networks are necessary to win the PAO chief election.

Most local officials belong to important “big households” that maintain near and long-standing relationships with their communities. This makes it challenging for the PP, which lacks for local sites, to get a grip in these elections.

While the PP may safe seats in urban areas, securing voters in remote areas remains a obstacle, he said.

According to Mr. Somchai, significant events use local elections as a prelude to national politics. With nearby tickets, they can tap into local network to link at national levels, reducing the amount of work needed for the 2027 public votes.

” When regional elections connects with nearby politicians and vice versa, it creates a mutually advantageous relationship”, he said.

Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Politics at King Prajadhipok’s Institute, said local election successes are important for regional parties aiming to occupy coming general elections.

He cited the Palang Pracharath Party ( PPRP ) case.

In 2019, when the PPRP led the state, the group assigned its next secretary-general, Capt Thamanat Prompow, to handle PAO general elections in 50 regions that year. The party won votes in 50 regions and won the support of significant native political people.

However, the group divide in 2023, with one party forming the United Thai Nation Party, led by former prime minister Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, reducing the PPRP’s native help center.

Similarly, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the de-facto leader of Pheu Thai, has adopted the same strategy as PPRP in the past, with Capt Thamanat again playing the role of connecting with local influential families.

This mirrors Bhumjaithai’s approach of engaging these families to strengthen its base for national politics. The strategy has proven effective, as seen in recent PAO elections, where the incumbent PAO chief resigned early to gain an electoral advantage.

On the other hand, the PP has yet to achieve success in any province. In Bangkok and nearby provinces or the South, where there is strong Pheu Thai opposition, interest has grown as a result of its reliance on a campaign for change and a new political approach.

Most PP supporters are also middle-class individuals. Therefore, it struggles to penetrate rural strongholds that are dominated by conventional political networks, according to Mr. Stithorn.

Influential families vital

According to Olarn Thinbangtieo, a lecturer at Burapha University’s Faculty of Political Science and Law, major parties are giving local elections a chance to form alliances with powerful families in various provinces.

Pheu Thai’s goal of securing at least 200 MP seats hinges on two factors: Thaksin’s influence and the PAO elections.

According to Mr. Olarn, Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai have similar ancestry roots in their respective “big families.” Since Thaksin’s return to the political scene, he has actively encouraged these families to renounce Pheu Thai and switch allegiance.

In consequence, these two parties have largely become a contest in the local election system. In contrast, the PP’s presence in local elections serves only as a “rating check” rather than a viable race.

Mr. Olarn said that Thaksin himself represents both the strengths and weaknesses of Pheu Thai in this contest.

He is both the party’s greatest asset and its greatest obstacle, making him a significant factor in the struggle for Pheu Thai to achieve its goal of dominating the electoral landscape as it pleases.

In Chon Buri, a stronghold of the Kunplome family led by Sontaya Kunplome, is an example of this. Despite being urged by Pheu Thai to run under the party’s banner, Mr Sontaya declined and instead chose to run under the” We Love Chonburi” group.

Mr. Sontaya is aware that Chon Buri voters view Thaksin as a “bitter pill.”

Running under the Pheu Thai name would increase the likelihood of being defeated because the majority of Chon Buri residents continue to support the yellow shirt group, which opposes Thaksin.

It is uncommon to find people there who are pro-Thaksin red shirts, aside from Pattaya, but some groups may support the orange shirts ( the PP ).

Although they are only a small percentage of this eastern province’s voters, people from the Northeast still have an admiration for Thaksin.

slim chance for PP

Political scientist Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University Yuttaporn Issarachai said local election victories are typically evenly split between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai, leaving little room for the PP.

” The PP’s candidates have struggled to create any’ wow’ factor. Moreover, the rules governing local elections differ significantly from national ones”, he said.

Local elections lack constituency-based voting, and for a candidate to win, he or she only needs to secure more votes over their rival.

Additionally, there is no early voting, and the restrictive voter eligibility rules effectively mean the polls aren’t accessible to locals. So, there are only 50 % of eligible people to vote, compared to the 70–80 % seen in national elections, Mr Yutthaporn said.

Also, most winners of PAO chief elections tend to be familiar faces or previous champions, accounting for nearly 90 % of victors, he said.

Due to voters preferring to elect people they know and can address their daily issues, it is difficult for new candidates to emerge.

These elections are not about choosing a prime ministerial candidate or a party capable of forming a government, as in national elections, he added.