National politics overshadows Thai provincial polls

Decentralization won’t be fully realized until Provincial Administration Organization ( PAO ) president elections on February 1 are held in full confidence.

According to social experts, this is because national politicians still have control over local politics, and the central government continues to delegate authority to local organizations.

Numerous political heavyweights with regional standing have supported the PAO election prospects ‘ campaigns.

They see the results of the surveys as a chance to form partnerships with local social groups and increase their support for the 2027 general election.

These statistics include former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is believed to be Pheu Thai’s de facto leader, and Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, president of the Progressive Movement.

Thanathorn also supported the People’s Party’s ( PP ) campaigns in several provinces, and the Progressive Movement has connections to the recently disbanded Move Forward Party and the People’s Party ( PP ).

In the primaries for PAO leaders and members in 47 regions on February 1, fierce opposition is anticipated.

The parties are vying for seats in the elections to fill positions that were left vacant by PAO presidents who did not serve their terms, Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai ( BJP), and the PP.

Before their conditions ended on December 19, 2024, many PAO president in different provinces resigned, necessitating elections within 60 days. Elections for officers who are elected may take place in less than 45 days.

Unwilling to outsource authority

Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Politics at King Prajadhipok’s Institute, told the Bangkok Post he believes Thaksin’s part in Pheu Thai’s activities indicates his need for the ruling party to win the national elections.

Local officials who are associated with the group are expected to play a significant role in achieving this objective.

Also, the Pheu Thai-led state, which controls position mechanisms, also has the support of central government agencies that are anxious to devolve power to native people.

This implies that local politicians will continue to be dominated and influenced by national politicians, according to Mr. Stithorn.

However, many individuals are even known to be affiliated with Bhumjaithai, a federal partnership part.

Its president, Anutin Charnvirakul, heads the Interior Ministry, which is responsible for regional governments, Mr Stithorn said.

Local politicians are unable to remove the influence of national officials. Thus, whichever party wins the most votes for PAO leaders, it is doubtful energy will become devolved to regional people.

It’s unlikely that any group will be in favor of decentralization because they still stand to gain from the country’s already centralized system, he said.

Distant promise

Yuttaporn Issarachai, a social scientist at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, echoed the view that decentralisation remains a distant possibility.

” Also, the PP has never been in state, so its force for decentralisation initiatives have yet to materialise, “he said.

Visitors tend to vote for individuals they are familiar with and who have helped them before rather than relying on party plans, Mr. Yuttaporn continued.” They are often more concerned about urgent problems like water or electricity shortages.

Most of the PAO ballot applicants in the 47 provinces are either past PAO chiefs or former assistant PAO chiefs.

” Since local politics is still dominated by federal officials, it is not astonishing that the support outposts of the three parties]Pheu Thai, BJP, and PP] are nearly identical in both national and local elections, “he said.

Outcome projections

The researchers also agreed that Pheu Thai is likely to get most votes in the PAO votes, particularly in the North and Northeast, which are the group’s strongholds.

However, the BJP is expected to win some chairs, particularly in regions in the Central Plains Region, the East, and the South.

Indie candidates affiliated with local social groups, as well as the PP, who is expected to win votes in Nakhon Nayok, Samut Prakan, and Phuket, are likely to share the remaining votes.

Olarn Thinbangtieo, a lecturer at Burapha University’s Faculty of Political Science and Law, predicted BJP would secure more than 50 % of the seats, while Pheu Thai would win about 25 %.

Candidates from neighborhood political clans are expected to receive 20 %, he said, while the PP would only receive 5 % of the seats.

The internet has focused a lot on the fight between Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai in just 10 regions. But, there are more than 30 regions where Pheu Thai is not fielding individuals. In these regions, separate individuals known to be affiliated with Bhumjaithai are contesting,” Mr Olarn said.

According to Thaksin’s role in the promotions and the party’s influence over state systems, Thanaporn Sriyakul, chairman of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, said he believes Pheu Thai however outnumbers other events in the PAO elections.

He predicted that the BJP would get about 40 % of the 47 PAO chairs, while Pheu Thai would get about 30 %. The remaining tickets may be shared among other events, such as the Democrats, the PP and the Chartthaipattana Party.