When the Constitutional Court renders its decision on Wednesday, according to several political analysts, the Move Forward Party ( MPP ) will be dissolved.
The judge ruled on January 31 in what is regarded as a harmful case, claiming that the MFP’s efforts to change Part 112 of the Criminal Code’s, the Lese Majeste Law, reflected an attempt to undermine the democratic king.
The judge also forbade the MFP from amending Area 112 through any non-legislative procedure, and ordered it to stop all attempts to do so.
The Election Commission (EC ) requested the MFP’s dissolution because it had allegedly violated Section 92 of the organic law governing political parties on the basis of the ruling. The area gives the court the power to dissolve any party that threatens the democratic monarchy.
The polling firm also requested that the court grant group managers’ election rights for ten years and forbid anyone who does not comply with Sections 92 and 94 of the law from registering or serving as celebration executives. The party may be decided by the court on Wednesday.
Political analysts also appear to think that the MFP executives who are facing a political ban will acquiesce to former FFP ( FFP ) acquiesce in the formation of a political movement following the FFP’s dissolution in 2020 due to a loan dispute.
In the event of a party dissolution, the MFP reportedly chose the Thinkakhao Chaovilai Party ( TKCV ) as its new political home.
Narrow conflict
According to Wanwichit Boonprong, a teacher in political science at Rangsit University, the MFP has a slim chance of winning because of a number of political factors and the MFP has failed to make the most of the opportunity to protect itself.
The group’s best opportunity lies with created claims made by Suraphol Nitikraipote, a teacher of common rules and one of the group’s witnesses. The judge, however, rejected the investigation where these claims may be presented, Mr Wanwichit said.
According to Mr. Suraphol, using the principles of free speech, such as those in the case of group members who attend rallies against the Lese Majeste rules, to support Section 112 amendments is legal. Also, personal MPs ‘ use of their MP status by MFP MPs to guarantee loan programs for defendants facing der majore expenses is a behavior for which the party should not be held responsible.
The main opposition, according to Mr. Wanwichit, does not appear to be confident that it will survive this political turbulence, citing the party’s release of videos and PR materials that feature deputy leader Sirikanya Tansakul as a new leader.
It” shows a lack of confidence in the fight against the case,” he said, adding that the goal is to unite the party supporters and raise one another’s morale.
The Faculty of Law College of Asian Scholars chairman, Jade Donavanik, claimed the decision could have a negative impact on the MFP. It’s possible that the party’s leaders will be barred from politics and the party disbanded. However, there are also three possible positive outcomes.
One is that the EC’s procedure may be found to be flawed, which would require the polling place to restart the process after the election.
Another is when it is discovered that the party did not engage in the activities and the party’s dissolution is overturned. The court gives the party a second warning before the final one.
When asked what decision would benefit everyone involved, Mr. Jade said a court warning would be beneficial. However, due to the MFP’s recent activities related to the institution of the monarchy, he said the MFP remains at risk.
“]Those activities ] highlight the party’s behaviour and they can be considered alongside the earlier case and show that the party has n’t ceased the activities despite the court warning”, he said.
Wanwichit: Chances are slim
Prepared for the worst
Members of the MFP’s deputy, Pol Maj Gen Supisarn Bhakdinarinath, will meet at the party’s headquarters on Wednesday at 3 p.m. to hear the court’s decision, according to Pol Maj Gen Supisarn Bhakdinarinath. If the MFP is dissolved, a new executive board may be announced that day.
The MPs will relocate to a new party to accommodate them, and those who are noticeably absent will be treated as defectors, he said, adding that a woman will serve as the party’s leader. This person must be the person who guides us in the future. He said,” It will be a woman versus a woman, and I think we will prevail,” which is said, apparently referring to Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Ms. Sirikanya.
” We’ll relocate our headquarters, too. It is big enough to accommodate 250 MPs in the future. The’ where’ is still a secret. We’re already planning to expand. If the MFP is dissolved, we just proceed”, he said.
Additionally, Pol Maj Gen Supisarn stated that it is unknown who will sign the petitions to amend the Lese Majeste law, including his own. The anti-graft agency will look into the case, and if it turns out to be incorrect, they could be subject to a lifetime ban.
” From my experience and my gut feeling, I think there is a 10 % chance of survival. The odds increased from 1 % thanks to Mr Suraphol’s arguments”, he said. The MFP will continue to work to expand its scope of work to include the digital economy and grassroots economy, he said, if the court decides in its favor.
He claimed that it will take time for the party to attempt to amend the lese majeste law through a legislative process. According to a source within the organization, the party’s MPs will switch to the TKCV, which may change its name later, and there is consensus that Ms. Sirikanya should take the place of leader.
Former Fair Party, Padipat Suntiphada, former leader and chief adviser Pita Limjaroenrat, current leader Chaithawat Tulathon, and second House deputy speaker who is currently with the Fair Party, Padipat Suntiphada are just a few of the people who are subject to a ban if the party isdissolved.
Supisarn: Woman leader likely
MFP’s closing statement
The party’s closing arguments, which were recently revealed by Mr. Chaithawat and Mr. Pita, highlight nine essential points against the party’s dissolution. The MFP also questioned the legitimacy of the EC’s process for requesting the party’s dissolution, the court’s authority to remove its executives from politics, and other issues.
The MFP asserted that the party’s actions were not intended to overthrow the constitutional monarchy and were not hostile to the nation’s governing system, in addition to its policy of revision of Section 112.
Mr. Pita confidently that the court would base its decision on the law and the facts, and he vowed that the party would be treated fairly.
When questioned about potential demonstrations if the ruling is invalid, he said the public has the right to peaceful gatherings, and the party will not engage in any acts of disorder or violence. ” If the party is dissolved, I will have nothing to do with a new party. But I believe I can still do my job as an MP on Thursday”, he said.
Political implications
In the event of party dissolution, the MFP MPs are legally required to join a new party within 60 days to retain their status, according to Mr Wanwichit.
” If the party executives, several of whom are MPs, are banned, the MFP will no longer be the largest party. The majority of the MPs are likely to join a new party that is prepared for this circumstance. A few may defect to government coalition partners”, he said.
According to Mr. Wanwichit, there are only a few defectors because those who turned their backs on the party won the general election last year. He claimed that the MFP appears confident that if it is disbanded, it will become stronger and even have as much support as it did with its predecessor.
He noted, however, that if the party does n’t change its political stance, it could lose supporters who wo n’t support the MFP in the election. Additionally, he noted that it may appeal to voters who had voted for the Pheu Thai Party if it changes its mind about the lese majeste law.
The party is expected to follow the court’s recommendation, but members may continue to lobby for legislative changes. He predicted that those who are barred from politics would turn to the social movement, concentrate on local issues, and participate in political gatherings.
The MFP will gain more confidence if the party recovers from the dissolution, according to Mr. Wanwichit, adding that the party’s campaigns will no longer be able to use the party’s amendments to the lese majeste law to support its supporters.
The banned executives may work for the Progressive Movement’s goals, according to Mr. Jade. However, he said, if the party avoids the dissolution, it may increase its activities by seeking out international organizations and seeking to change the charter to reflect their political ideology.
Mr. Chaithawat said some government parties made an effort to woo the party MPs, but he still believes in the MFP MPs.
Jade: Three possible positives