More COE quota will be brought forward from peak years in ‘cut-and-fill’ move to tackle supply trough

SINGAPORE: Acting Minister for Transport Chee Hong Tat announced on Monday( Nov. 6 ) that more Certificate of Entitlement ( COE ) quota will be brought forward from peak years to fill the current supply troughs while maintaining the zero-vehicle growth policy.

The number of Submissions up for bid is determined by the quantity of deregistered vehicles under Singapore’s zero-growth policy, which was put in place to reduce traffic congestion.

Mr. Chee responded to Members of Parliament’s inquiries about rising COE prices by pointing out that, assuming require stays fairly constant, the significant variation in limit provide during the top and trough years causes higher volatility in prices across various years.

The moving average of deregistrations from the four quarters prior is used under the existing system to determine COE restrictions for the following quarter.

Due to the fact that many of the current cars have not reached the end of their COE lifespans and are not eligible for deregistration, Categories A, B, and C now face a” tight supply situation ,” according to Mr. Chee.

However, before reaching the peak source years from 2026 to 2027, COE provide for these groups will drastically improve starting in the second quarter of 2024.

If we can lower the peak-to-trough ratio by using a” cut-and-fill” approach to shave off future peaks and use this supply to fill the current toughs ,” he said,” a better outcome can be achieved for all stakeholders while still allowing the COE system to play its role as an allocation mechanism.”

In the peak years, the Transport Ministry announced in May that it would advance quota from” guaranteed deregistrations ,” which has contributed to an increase in COE supply over the previous six months.

The Land Transport Authority also revealed on Friday that, compared to the third quarter, the quota supply for Category A and B increased by 35 % in the November to January quarter.

” We hope that COE rates may average with the increase in source.” However, we are aware that prices will also be influenced by industry desire, and demand is outside the purview of the government, Mr. Chee continued.

I must be honest with everyone and say that it is impossible to predict how prices may change in the upcoming COE selling rounds, but I want to reassure Honourable Members and the general public that MOT and LTA are making every effort to address the issues.