Missing from the listing
Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s inexplicable absence from the United Thai Nation’s (UTN) party list has called into question whether the camaraderie he has displayed for the party is genuine.
Gen Prayut, who critics agree is the embodiment of the UTN and the root of its popularity among mostly conservative voters, raised more than a few eyebrows when he was nowhere to be seen among UTN members who gathered to register their party list candidacy recently.
UTN member, Thanakorn Wangboonkongchana, who is also the PM’s Office minister, said recently the party had finalised its party-list and constituency candidate selection and that Gen Prayut will not stand in the election.
Theories abound as to why Gen Prayut, who chairs the UTN’s strategic committee, is giving the chance to run for a House seat a miss.
One of them has to do with Gen Prayut’s perceived half-heartedness about assuming the role of a full-time politician, which would require him to step out of his comfort zone leading the executive branch than being a member of the legislature.
Proof of this is his ability to survive, and at times thrive, through the eight years of his premiership, the first four of which were a sequel to the May 2014 coup staged by the now-defunct National Council for Peace and Order that he headed.
A source said some UTN supporters viewed Gen Prayut’s decision to stay out of the election as a sacrificial act.
They believe the prime minister, who accepted the UTN’s nomination to be its first prime ministerial candidate, has done the party a favour by leaving a party-list candidacy slot open so another UTN member can be included. The UTN has been tipped to win about 10 of 100 party list seats and so members would be pushing their way to land a top 10 placing on the list.
Earlier, UTN deputy leader Trairong Suwannakhiri bowed out of UTN list candidacy despite having reportedly been allocated fourth spot after party leader Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, who was set to occupy first place, party secretary-general Akanat Promphan and Mr Thanakorn.
Mr Trairong said he had no desire to run for a House seat. He insisted he would rather sit on the sidelines and let someone else have his list place.
However, Gen Prayut opting out of the next poll has seen a flurry of attacks by opponents.
Some of them accused the prime minister of paying lip service to his own pledge to turn the UTN into a political institution. They also chastised him for being insincere and non-committal to a long-term political cause.
They added that by not being an MP, Gen Prayut would be able to avoid being called to answer interpellations or queries in parliament, thereby dodging accountability.
But the observer argued that being elected an MP has its advantages, one of which is that it comes with immunity from legal action for the duration of the ordinary House session. In Gen Prayut’s case, this could come in handy as his opponents might pursue legal action against him in connection with his handling of state affairs during his time as prime minister.
In a recent interview, Rangsiman Rome, spokesman of the Move Forward Party, maintained it was a matter of principle that a prime minister must also be an MP so that they retain a connection with and truly represent the people.
That principle was enshrined in the previous constitution, which was torn up by the coup-makers when they ousted the Pheu Thai Party-led government in 2014, he said.
When the current charter was being written, the clause on a prime minister-cum-MP was never restored. Instead, it was stipulated a party with at least 25 MPs could put forward up to three prime ministerial candidates who did not have to be an MP.
Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, a key Progressive Movement figure, has called for charter amendments to make it compulsory for a prime minister to be an elected MP.
His call was apparently in response to decisions by two prime ministerial candidates from the main opposition Pheu Thai Party, Paetongtarn “Ung Ing” Shinawatra and Srettha Thavisin, to also not run for House seats.
Mr Piyabutr, a law expert and former lecturer at Thammasat University, has insisted that a constitutional requirement for the prime minister to be an MP would serve as an essential mechanism to help prevent “outsiders” from assuming the post.
He added the requirement would also bind the prime minister to answer questions and interpellations from fellow MPs in parliament, noting that the cabinet, which functions as the executive branch, tends to recognise the importance of lawmakers only when it needs their votes on major pieces of legislation.
A party moving forward
With about three weeks to go before Election Day, signs are emerging that the contest between Pheu Thai and the Move Forward Party (MFP), the two largest opposition parties, is hotting up.
Pita: Popularity on the rise
In the latest Nida poll released on Sunday, although Pheu Thai is still the election frontrunner with 47.2% support in the constituency system and 47% in the party-list system, its lead has slipped from 49.75% and 49.85%, respectively in a poll conducted in March.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra, one of Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidates, also saw her popularity slide to 35.7%, from 38.2% in Nida’s first pre-election poll in March. Still, the youngest daughter of ousted prime minister Thaksin, remains the most popular choice to be the country’s next leader.
Meanwhile, the popularity of the MFP, which shares Pheu Thai’s support base, particularly in urban areas, rose to 21.2% in the constituency system and 21.85% in the party-list system from 17.4% and 17.15% in the March survey.
Its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, who came second in the prime ministerial poll, has a support rating of 20.25%, up from 15.75% previously.
Many within the MFP, including Mr Pita, are said to be very confident and expect to capture House seats in every region across the country that will help see them reach their target of at least 120 seats.
Their confidence is boosted by internal polls and independent surveys, which indicate the party’s growing popularity and solid presence in the past four years. In the 2019 polls, its predecessor, the Future Forward Party which was a political newbie, won 30 constituency seats and 51 party-list seats.
According to party sources, while Bangkok is the main battleground for the MFP, the party has also set its sights on urban areas in major provinces across the country.
In the capital, the MFP aims to capture at least 15 seats due to a widening support base and its success in last year’s council election where the party won 14 out of 50 seats.
In the Northeast, where there are 132 seats up for grabs, Pheu Thai is widely tipped to emerge the winner, although the MFP is expected to put up a fierce fight in many constituencies.
MFP candidates are going strong in Khon Kaen’s Constituency 1, Udon Thani’s Constituency 1, and Nakhon Ratchasima’s Constituency 14.
The northern region is also considered a Pheu Thai stronghold, but the MFP has a chance in the upper part, including Chiang Rai’s Constituency 1, Chiang Mai’s Constituency 1 and Constituency 6 and Phitsanulok’s Constituency 1.
As for the central and eastern regions, which are dominated by political families, the MFP is predicted to “topple the giants” and capture at least 10 seats.
Its targets include Pathum Thani’s Constituency 3, Samut Prakan’s Constituency 4 and Constituency 5, Chon Buri’s Constituency 8, Rayong’s Constituency 5, Chanthaburi’s Constituency 3.
Still, the southern region, where the majority of voters are aligning themselves to conservative parties such as the Democrats and the United Thai Nation Party, is the MFP’s weakest spot and could prove elusive in this election.
Despite signs the MFP is closing the gap, some observers argue that the MFP’s 2019 election success was helped by the dissolution of Thai Raksa Chart (TRC), a sister party of Pheu Thai, ahead of the polls.
After the dissolution, many voters who were considering casting their ballots for Pheu Thai were believed to have switched to the MFP.
Moreover, Pheu Thai has recently refreshed its campaign for a landslide victory by introducing a 10,000-baht digital wallet policy in which Thais over 16 years old will be given 10,000 baht to spend within six months at shops within a 4-kilometre radius of where they live.
Several analysts believe the policy is aimed at widening the party’s base targeting undecided voters, but they are not sure if the tactic will work or blunt the MFP’s gains.
While the cash handout scheme has impressed several groups of voters who see it as a much-needed boost, it has drawn criticism from economic experts out of concern for the country’s financial standing and enraged some who find it repellent rather than attractive.