Street protests likely, coup fears surface
Politicians and academics strongly oppose any attempt to form a minority government after the May 14 election, warning that this could spark street demonstrations culminating in another coup.
The warning came after Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam on Wednesday dismissed the possibility of a political vacuum or deadlock arising after the election.
However, he expressed concern that the formation of a new government may take longer than usual. His remarks come as polls show some of the front-running parties drawing closer in the popularity stakes.
While he believes that any party that wins a majority of House seats could form a new government, he said there are some uncertainties which could result in the victorious party getting fewer seats and having to work instead to form a coalition government.
Deputy Democrat Party leader Ongart Klampaiboon said that Mr Wissanu’s comment was only theory, but in practice, the formation of a minority government was unlikely.
“After the election, parties will try to gather support and secure a majority of House seats or more than 250 to form a coalition government. Parties that fail to do so must assume the role of the opposition because they are in the minority,” Mr Ongart said.
“If parties in the minority try to form a minority government and rely on the support of the 250 senators to vote for a prime ministerial candidate they nominate, such a government is not stable and can lose in a vote of no-confidence or a vote on key financial bills.
“If it is defeated in a no-confidence motion or a vote on budget bills, it is only obliged to resign,” Mr Ongart said.
“Any parties that try to form a minority government should take into account political legitimacy, and actions that go against public sentiment could lead to political problems. The formation of a minority government is very unlikely after the election,” Mr Ongart said.
Chartpattanakla Party leader Korn Chatikavanij also confirmed that the party would not join a minority government which would need the help of the senators to choose a prime minister.
“Our stance is clear. We will not join any minority government,” Mr Korn said.
Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, a key Progressive Movement figure assisting the Move Forward Party’s election campaign, voiced opposition to any move to form a minority government, saying this will run counter to the voters’ mandate.
“Forming a minority with the support of the senators will go against the popular mandate. No one will let this happen.
“We will not allow the 250 senators to have their own way. We will form a government led by Move Forward, winning an overwhelming majority in the House,” Mr Piyabutr said.
Wanwichit Boonprong, a lecturer in the Faculty of Political Science at Rangsit University, said that it would be difficult for a minority government to take shape as it would face resistance from voters.
“This will likely spark strong reactions from voters. Parties that fail to win a majority of House seats but still proceed to form a minority government — they don’t accept defeat in the election. Protesters will be back on the streets,” Mr Wanwichit said.
Jade Donavanik, dean of the Faculty of Law at Dhurakij Pundit University, said several politicians lack political etiquette and ethics and are ready to jump at the chance of forming a minority government.
He noted that the military still plays a key role in politics, as any government that has the backing of the military is still able to operate as a minority government.
“This would lead to demonstrations led by parties that win a majority. But if demonstrators do not have the military on their side, security measures will be taken to deal with them,” Mr Jade said.
“The situation could escalate and culminate in yet another coup,” he added.