Several political analysts predict the opposition Move Forward Party (MFP) will be dissolved when the Constitutional Court delivers its ruling on Wednesday.
On Jan 31 this year, the court gave what is regarded as a damaging ruling that said the MFP’s efforts to change Section 112 of the Criminal Code, the lese majeste law, reflected an intention to undermine the constitutional monarchy.
In that ruling, the court also ordered the MFP to cease all attempts to rewrite Section 112 and prohibited it from amending the section through any non-legislative process.
The ruling provided the basis for the Election Commission (EC) to request the MFP’s dissolution for allegedly violating Section 92 of the organic law on political parties. The section authorises the court to dissolve any party posing a threat to the constitutional monarchy.
The poll agency also asked the court to revoke the rights of party executives to stand for election and prohibit anyone who loses those rights from registering or serving as executives of a new party for 10 years, under Sections 92 and 94 of the law. The court’s decision on Wednesday will make or break the party.
Political analysts also appear to agree the MFP executives who face a political ban will follow in the footsteps of former key members of the now-defunct Future Forward Party (FFP) who formed a political movement after the FFP was disbanded in 2020 over a loan controversy.
With its future hanging by a thread, the MFP has reportedly picked the Thinkakhao Chaovilai Party (TKCV) as a new political home for the party MPs in the event of a party dissolution.
Narrow odds
Wanwichit Boonprong, a political science lecturer at Rangsit University, told the Bangkok Post the chance of a favourable outcome for the MFP is slim due to various political circumstances and the MFP’s failure to capitalise on the opportunity to defend itself.
The party’s best chance lies with written arguments made by Suraphol Nitikraipote, a professor of public law and one of the party’s witnesses. The court, however, rejected the inquiry where these arguments could be presented, Mr Wanwichit said.
Based on Mr Suraphol’s arguments, campaigning for amendments to Section 112 or party members appearing at rallies against the lese majeste law are lawful exercises of free expression under democratic principles. Additionally, the use of their MP status by MFP MPs to guarantee bail applications for suspects on lese majeste charges is an action by individual MPs for which the party should not be held accountable.
Mr Wanwichit also said the main opposition does not seem confident it will survive this political turbulence, pointing to the party’s release of clips and PR materials featuring deputy leader Sirikanya Tansakul as a new leader.
“It shows a lack of confidence in fighting the case, so what it does is to hold the party supporters together and boost each other’s morale,” he said.
Jade Donavanik, chairman of the Faculty of Law College of Asian Scholars, said the ruling could be negative or favourable to the MFP. The party could be disbanded and its executives barred from politics, which is likely. However, there are also three possible positive outcomes.
One is that the EC’s process may be found to be flawed, meaning the poll agency would then be required to restart the dissolution process.
Another is the party is found not to have engaged in the activities and the dissolution is put to rest. The last is that the court issues a fresh warning to the party.
Asked what decision would be in the public’s best interest, Mr Jade said a court warning would be favourable for all parties involved. However, due to the MFP’s recent activities related to the institution of the monarchy, he said the MFP remains at risk.
“[Those activities] highlight the party’s behaviour and they can be considered alongside the earlier case and show that the party hasn’t ceased the activities despite the court warning,” he said.
Wanwichit: Chances are slim
Prepared for the worst
According to MFP deputy leader Pol Maj Gen Supisarn Bhakdinarinath, members will gather at the party’s headquarters at 3pm on Wednesday to listen to the court ruling. If the MFP is dissolved, a new executive board may be announced that day.
The MPs will move to a new party set up to accommodate them, and those who are noticeably absent will be presumed defectors, he said, adding the new party will be led by a woman. “It must be this person to head us into the future. It will be a woman versus a woman and I believe we’ll win,” he said, apparently referring to Ms Sirikanya and Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra.
“We’ll relocate our headquarters, too. It is big enough to accommodate 250 MPs in the future. The ‘where’ is still a secret. We’re already planning to expand. If the MFP is dissolved, we just proceed,” he said.
Pol Maj Gen Supisarn also said the fate of 44 MFP MPs, including himself, who signed in support of the proposed amendments to the lese majeste law remains unknown. The case will be reviewed by the anti-graft agency and if found in the wrong, they can face a lifetime ban.
“From my experience and my gut feeling, I think there is a 10% chance of survival. The odds increased from 1% thanks to Mr Suraphol’s arguments,” he said. If the court rules in the party’s favour, the MFP will continue working to broaden its base to prepare for the next polls and expand its area of work to cover the digital economy and grassroots economy, he said.
He said the party’s attempt to revise the lese majeste law through a legislative process is expected to take time. A source in the party said the party MPs will transition to the TKCV, which may change its name later, and there is a consensus the new leader should be Ms Sirikanya.
Those who face a ban if the party is dissolved include former leader and chief adviser Pita Limjaroenrat, current leader Chaithawat Tulathon, and second House deputy speaker who is now with the Fair Party, Padipat Suntiphada.
Supisarn: Woman leader likely
MFP’s closing statement
Mr Chaithawat and Mr Pita recently revealed the party’s closing arguments submitted to the court, stressing nine key points as to why the party should not be disbanded. Among them, the MFP challenged the court’s authority to dissolve the party and bar its executives from politics and questioned the legitimacy of the EC’s process to seek the dissolution.
Apart from its policy to revise Section 112, the MFP said the actions alleged in the petition were not carried out by the party and insisted its activities were not intended to overthrow the constitutional monarchy and were not hostile to the country’s governing system.
Mr Pita expressed confidence the court would base its decision on facts and the law and said the party would be treated fairly.
Asked about possible protests if the ruling is unfavourable, he said the public has the right to peaceful gatherings and the party will not do anything to incite chaos or violence. “If the party is dissolved, I will have nothing to do with a new party. But I believe I can still do my job as an MP on Thursday,” he said.
Political implications
In the event of party dissolution, the MFP MPs are legally required to join a new party within 60 days to retain their status, according to Mr Wanwichit.
“If the party executives, several of whom are MPs, are banned, the MFP will no longer be the largest party. Most of the MPs are likely to end up in a new party prepared for this situation. A few may defect to government coalition partners,” he said.
Mr Wanwichit said the number of defectors is estimated to be low because those who turned their backs on the party failed in last year’s general election. He said the MFP seems confident that, if the party is dissolved, it will emerge stronger and can even widen its support as was the case with its predecessor.
However, he noted that if the party does not soften its political stance, it risks losing followers who hesitate to support if MFP cannot win. And by compromising its stance on the lese majeste law, it may appeal to those who had voted for the Pheu Thai Party, he added.
“The party is expected to follow the court’s order but individual members may continue [to campaign for amendments to the lese majeste law]. Those who are barred from politics will shift to the social movement and focus on local politics and attend political forums,” he said.
If the party survives the dissolution, the MFP will gain more confidence and may use the court’s decision to justify its actions and bolster its supporters’ confidence, Mr Wanwichit said, adding the amendments to the lese majeste law will no longer appear in its campaigns.
Mr Jade said the banned executives may join the Progressive Movement and work to support the group’s agenda. But if the party escapes the dissolution, it may intensify its approach such as engaging international organisations and seeking to amend the charter to better reflect their political ideology, he said.
Meanwhile, Mr Chaithawat said there were attempts to lure the party MPs by some government parties, but he remains confident in the MFP MPs.
Jade: Three possible positives