Maldives leader Muizzu to seek India bailout despite strained ties

Mohammed Muizzu, the president of Maldivia, has stated to the BBC that he is convinced that India will lend its assistance to the island country as it struggles with its economy.

Muizzu, who begins a five-day visit to India on Sunday, is expected to seek a bailout worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

The Maldives is staring at a debt default as its foreign exchange reserves have dropped to$ 440m ( £334m ), just enough for one-and-a-half months of imports.

India, one of our biggest development partners, is fully aware of our financial situation, and it will always be available to ease our problem, look for better alternatives and solutions to the issues we face, Muizzu told the BBC in an internet interview prior to his visit.

Experts point out that Muizzu’s reconciliatory tone towards Delhi is a far cry from the rhetoric he adopted during his election campaign a year ago. That campaign had centred on an “India out” policy, demanding that Delhi must withdraw its troops from the island nation.

Muizzu stated in a statement to the BBC that he was assured that any differences could be resolved through open discussion and mutual understanding. He did not directly address his anti-India strategy.

An American relief package may bolster the government’s foreign currency reserves.

Last month, global firm Moody’s downgraded the Maldives ‘ credit score, saying that “default dangers have risen substantially”.

However, Muizzu told the BBC that Male is not in danger of defaulting on its sovereign debt, and that the nation would not sign up for an International Monetary Fund ( IMF) program to address the crisis.

” We have our own home-grown agenda”, he said.

However, Moody has said that” (foreign ) reserves remain significantly below the government’s external debt service of around$ 600m in 2025 and over$ 1bn in 2026″.

Where Muizzu may find the funds to solve the reserves problems is unclear, and that is where his Delhi visit is viewed as important. Male has already received$ 1.4 billion in financial support from India for various infrastructure and development projects.

Relations between Male and Delhi have strained since Muizzu took office in November 2023.

Soon after taking over, he chose to travel to Turkey and China – his visit to the latter in January was seen especially as a high-profile snub to India as previous Maldivian leaders first visited Delhi after being elected. Around the same time, a controversy erupted in India after three Maldivian officials made derogatory comments about Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Muizzu also gave an ultimatum to India to withdraw about 80 troops based in the country. Delhi said they were stationed there to maintain and operate two rescue and reconnaissance helicopters and a Dornier aircraft it had donated years ago.

In the end, both nations came to an agreement to replace soldiers with American human professional staff to run the aircraft.

Additionally, Muizzu’s administration announced that it would not maintain a geological survey agreement signed by the earlier government with India to chart the seabed in Maldivian territorial waters.

However, the Maldivian leader defended his choice.

Our evolving home objectives and strategic goals are the basis for the decisions made. The will of the people, that elected me 10 times ago”, Muizzu said.

” I think that both India and the Islands have better understanding of one another’s needs and problems,” he added.

Some of Muizzu’s judgments were seen as a way to lower Delhi’s control and forge closer relations with India’s foe China.

In February, Muizzu’s administration allowed the port call of a Chinese research ship, Xiang Yang Hong 3, in the Maldives, much to Delhi’s displeasure. Some saw it as a mission to collect data which could – at a later date – be used by the Chinese military for submarine operations.

But Muizzu rejects the pro-China label.

The moment I took office, I made it clear that our foreign policy is a” Island First” policy. He asserts that the rules of mutual respect and trust, non-interference, and the pursuit of peace and prosperity guide our interactions with other countries.

” We believe that through empty communication and collaboration, we can address any concerns, contributing to a peaceful and prosperous Indian Ocean place”, he says.

Despite Muizzu’s attempts to move Male closer to Beijing, analysts say financial assistance from China has n’t been forthcoming,

As a result, the government’s incredible turnaround towards India today is based on harsh realities.

Muizzu’s Delhi attend “is a realisation of how dependant the Island is on India, a dominance that no other country will get easy to fill”, says Azim Zahir, a Malay analyst.