Democratic observers believe the ruling Pheu Thai Party also has a chance to win back control following the upcoming general election if it improves its tactics and adjusts its tactics to change the circumstances.
Pheu Thai and its de facto leader, Thaksin Shinawatra, appear to have lost their grip on some districts in the North and Northeast, areas that were once group strongholds.
Despite his lively canvassing for Pheu Thai applicants in many regions, Thaksin’s party performed less well than Thaksin had anticipated in the PAO elections on February 1.
Candidate candidates for the group won six of the province’s 10 operational organizations, while prospects for the party won six. Bhumjaithai outperformed them, securing 14. The Women’s Party ( PP ) won in just one province– Lamphun– despite fielding applicants in 17 counties. Some political experts are now asking whether Thaksin has lost his democratic control as a result.
In reply, Thaksin acknowledged he is older now, and suggested that some people under 40 years old may not accept his past efforts. Nevertheless, he expressed confidence that Pheu Thai would do well in the 2027 common vote, predicting the party would win at least 200 House tickets.
Economists, but, pointed out that PAO votes differ drastically from national elections, making it difficult to use the PAO results as a comprehensive standard for achievement in the 2027 general vote.
In regional elections, voters tend to support individuals who have close relationships to their populations, understand local wants, and can address their problems and market regional growth.
In comparison, national elections are driven primarily by social ideas and group coverage systems, spectators said.
No a bad outcome
The party’s 10 PAO key votes won by Pheu Thai, according to Yutthaporn Issarachai, a professor in political science at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, were never a bad thing because it fielded individuals in 14 regions, according to Yutthaporn Issarachai.
Pheu Thai lost in some provinces for various reasons, such as in Chiang Rai, where a candidate affiliated with the Bhumjaithai Party and a member of the government coalition won the seat. The northernmost province received significant flooding late last year, largely as a result of this. The party played a significant role in relief operations and post-flood recovery efforts, which may have had an impact on voter support, with Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul serving as the Interior Ministry’s senate leader.
Yuttaporn: Pheu Thai policies haven’t failed
Local vs national politics
This doesn’t indicate the policies rolled out by Pheu Thai ahead of the PAO elections, such as the 10, 000-baht cash handout scheme, had failed. ” Local politics is different from national politics”, he said.
Unlike national elections, local polls do not have advance voting or inter-constituency voting, he said, adding the number of invalid ballots and no-votes was notably high.
If the number of no-votes in any province exceeds the votes received by any candidate, the Election Commission (EC ) will call for a re-run, he said.
Of the 27.99 million eligible voters, 16.36 million ( 58.45 % ) exercised their electoral rights in the PAO president elections, according to the EC.
In the PAO presidents election, there were 931, 290 invalid ballots ( 5.69 % of all ballots ) and 1.17 million ballots in which voters ticked the no-vote box ( 7.08 % of all ballots ).
” In national elections, voters consider party policies and stances on constitutional amendments, while in local elections, they choose candidates who can address their everyday problems”, Mr Yutthaporn said.
However, he noted that Pheu Thai’s populist policies alone may no longer guarantee success in the next general election, as they have in the past.
He added that” clear political ideologies also play a significant role in electoral success.”
” Pheu Thai must take lessons from the PAO elections and consider how to distance itself from Thaksin.
The party should give young-generation politicians the chance to demonstrate their skills and become famous, according to Mr. Yutthaporn.
” Such changes could improve its chances of winning the next election, “he added.
Most importantly, he said, tackling economic problems remains a top priority for the Pheu Thai-led government, and failure to do so could lead to a decline in the party’s popularity at the national poll.
Try harder
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok’s Institute, said Thaksin will have to work harder if he wants Pheu Thai to win the next general election.
” Thaksin needs to invest more… Just showing up at campaign events for candidates was not enough, especially compared to Bhumjaithai, which has strengthened its ties with local candidates,” Mr Stithorn said.
Pheu Thai should now realize that Bhumjaithai has grown stronger. Thaksin must be more generous and invest more to win people’s hearts, “he added.
Mr Stithorn also predicted that, based on the PAO election results, Bhumjaithai is likely to win more than 100 House seats, an increase from its current 60-70, while Pheu Thai is expected to secure about 130 seats, up from its current 112.
In the upcoming general election, he predicted that the People’s Party ( PP ) would struggle to win new constituencies, despite its claims that it would likely retain its seats in existing ones.
Only three parties will have more than 100 MPs in the upcoming election, according to his prediction, and only the United Thai Nation Party and Palang Pracharath Party are expected to see a decline in their House seats.
According to Mr. Stithorn, he anticipated that Pheu Thai would win enough seats to bring the party back to power and form the next government even though he did not anticipate it would do so as Thaksin had predicted.
Stithorn: Thaksin must work harder
Thepthai Senpong, a former Democrat Party member, claimed that the PP won only one seat in the PAO chief elections because it failed to take into account the differences between local and national elections.
In the 2023 general election, many people voted for the now-dissolved Move Forward Party, which later rebranded as the PP, because they wanted then-party leader Pita Limjaroenrat to become prime minister, he said.
When it comes to local politics, the focus is on addressing specific needs, which vary from province to province, Mr Thepthai said, adding many PP candidates were unfamiliar to local residents.
Regarding Weeradet Phupisit, the PP candidate who won in Lamphun, he noted that Weeradet is well-known among locals as the son of a former PAO chief in the province.
However, according to Mr. Thepthai, the Lamphun Provincial Administrative Organization has a small budget, only 300 to 400 million baht, compared to PAOs in major provinces like Chon Buri, which can have budgets of up to 4 billion baht.
” The budget is limited. However, Lamphun residents now have high expectations for the new PAO chief, he said.
Thepthai: Locals don’t know PP