The rules require a candidate to win at least 50 per cent of the national vote to avoid a runoff, which will see the first- and second-placed candidates go head-to-head in polls set for Jun 26.
With slightly more than half of eligible voters aged between 17 to 40, the youth vote will significantly influence the election. These voters are invested in diverse issues ranging from cost of living to climate change and inclusivity to corruption.
The days leading up to polling were plagued with allegations of undemocratic manoeuvres and electoral fraud.
Mr Widodo, who is constitutionally barred from a third term, has been accused of mobilising state apparatus and aid to push for Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran to win in one round.
Mr Widodo, also known as Jokowi, has thrown his weight behind the Prabowo-Gibran ticket in a bid to cement his legacy, sparking criticism that he was crafting a political dynasty.
A documentary released on the first day of cooling-off – which ran from Sunday to Tuesday – alleged that “political instruments of power” were being used to rig the election, stoking public anger and a fierce rebuttal from Mr Prabowo’s campaign team, which dismissed the film as slanderous.
According to a Feb 10 report by The Intercept, army and intelligence officials have prepared a plan to use police and “babinsas” – the army’s eyes, ears and hands at the neighbourhood level – to receive and distribute money to fix precinct-level tabulation sheets.
If the official results show Prabowo-Gibran winning in one round by only a slim majority, these allegations are expected to grow even louder, with legal challenges launched.
Mr Prabowo is a former general accused of past human rights abuses and has twice failed to become president. He lost in the 2014 and 2019 elections to Jokowi.
But ties between the two have warmed as Mr Prabowo has promised to continue Jokowi’s policies. He has also rehabilitated his image to some extent, and has recently been compared to a cute grandfather.
The challenger most likely to force a runoff is Mr Anies, the former Jakarta governor who has been critical of Jokowi and his policies and has campaigned for change. If the election goes to a runoff, observers expect he will try wooing anti-Prabowo supporters from Mr Ganjar’s camp.
The months before the potential June runoff will also likely involve behind-the-scenes horse-trading among the political elites, with the leading candidate expected to dangle concessions and positions to parties that supported the third-placed candidate.
The new president and vice-president will be sworn in on Oct 20.