SINGAPORE: Private sector economists have cut their forecast for Singapore’s economic growth this year to 1.4 per cent, down from their March projection of 1.9 per cent.
The findings from the latest survey of professional forecasters were released by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) on Wednesday (Jun 14). The survey was sent out on May 25.
Spillovers from an external growth slowdown emerged as the most cited downside risk to domestic outlook, as identified by 61 per cent of the 24 respondents. It was also most frequently ranked as the top downside risk.
The respondents also flagged inflationary pressures and an escalation in geopolitical tensions as risks to the domestic growth outlook.
Last month, China banned US semiconductor giant Micron from selling chips to its key domestic industries amid rising tensions between both countries. There has also been an escalation in the Ukraine war.
About 71 per cent of respondents cited more robust growth in China – underpinned by economic reopening and macroeconomic policy easing – as the biggest upside risk to Singapore’s growth outlook.
Earlier this year, China reopened its borders and ended a requirement for incoming travellers to quarantine.
Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) in May maintained its 2023 growth forecast at 0.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent, with growth likely to “come in at around the mid-point” of this range.
Respondents to MAS’ latest survey estimate that gross domestic product (GDP) will expand by 2.5 per cent in 2024.