Ayman al-Zawahri, head of al-Qaeda and also a plotter of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, has been murdered in a drone hit in the Afghan city of Kabul, according to the US federal government.
Al-Zawahri was the successor to Osama bin Laden great death marked “one more measure of closure” to the families of individuals killed in the 2001 atrocities, US Chief executive Joe Biden said throughout televised remarks on August 1, 2022.
The operation emerged almost a year after United states troops exited Afghanistan after decades of fighting there.
The Conversation asked Daniel Milton , a terrorism expert at the US Army Academy at West Point, and Haroro J Ingram and Andrew Mines , research fellows in the George Washington University’s Program on Extremism, to explain the significance of the strike on al-Zawahri and what it states about US counterterrorism efforts in Afghanistan under the Taliban.
Who was Ayman al-Zawahri?
Ayman al-Zawahri was an Egyptian-born jihadist who grew to become al-Qaeda’s top leader in 2011 after his predecessor, Osama rubbish bin Laden, was killed with an US operation . Al-Zawahri’s ascent implemented years in which al-Qaeda’s leadership had been emaciated by US drone attacks in Pakistan .
Bin Laden had himself been struggling in the years prior to his death to exert control plus unity across al-Qaeda’s global network associated with affiliates.
Al-Zawahri succeeded rubbish bin Laden despite the combined reputation . Whilst he had a long history of involvement in the jihadist struggle, he has been viewed by many observers and even jihadists as a languid orator without formal spiritual credentials or battlefield reputation.
Missing the charisma associated with his predecessor, al-Zawahri’s picture being a leader was not helped by a tendency to embark on long, meandering and often outdated speeches. Al-Zawahri also struggled to shake gossips that he was a prison informer while detained in Egypt and, as writer and journalist Lawrence Wright detailed , acted as a wedge between the young bin Packed and his mentor, Abdullah Azzam.
Al-Zawahri’s influence additional waned during a number of popular uprisings known as the Arab Spring swept throughout North Africa and the Middle East , when it seemed that will al-Qaeda had been sidelined and unable to successfully exploit the outbreak of war within Syria and Iraq.
In order to analysts and supporters alike, al-Zawahiri made an appearance symbolic of an al-Qaida that was outdated plus rapidly being eclipsed by other groupings that it had once assisted onto the global stage , most notably the Islamic State.
But with the collapse from the Islamic State group’s caliphate in 2019, the particular return to power in Afghanistan of al-Qaeda ally the Taliban and the persistence of al-Qaeda affiliates especially in Africa , some specialists argue that will al-Zawahri guided al-Qaeda through its many challenging period which the group remains a potent threat.
Indeed, a single senior Biden management official told the Associated Press that at the time of his death, al-Zawahri carried on to provide “strategic direction” and was regarded a dangerous figure.
Where does his death leave al-Qaeda?
Killing or capturing top terrorist leaders has been a key counterterrorism tool for many years. Such operations remove terrorist leaders in the battlefield and drive succession struggles that disrupt group cohesion and can reveal security vulnerabilities.
Unlike the Islamic Condition, which has clear leadership succession practices that it has showcased four times because the 2006 death from the founder Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, al-Qaeda’s are usually less clear. Al-Zawahri’s successor will only become the movement’s third innovator given that forming in 1988.
The top contender is another Egypt. A former colonel in the Egyptian army plus, like al-Zawahri, a member of the al-Qaeda affiliate marketer Egyptian Islamic Jihad, Saif al-Adel is connected to the particular 1998 bombings of US embassies in Tanzania and Kenya that will launched al-Qaeda being a global jihadist risk.
Their reputation as an explosives expert and military strategist has won him strong position within the al-Qaeda motion. A number of other possibilities are behind al-Adel, with a recent UN Security Authorities report identifying several possible successors.
Either way, we’d argue that al-Qaeda is at a crossroads. If al-Zawahri’s heir is broadly recognized as legitimate by both al-Qaida’s core and its affiliates, it could assist to stabilize the movement. But any ambiguity surrounding al-Qaeda’s succession plan could view the new leader’s power challenged, which in turn could fracture the motion further.
Evidence suggests al-Qaeda’s existence as a global movement will survive al-Zawahri’s death, just as this did bin Laden’s. The network offers seen a number of recent achievements . Longtime allies the Taliban successfully took control of Afghanistan with help through al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent – an affiliate which is at this point expanding its operations within Pakistan and Indian .
Meanwhile, affiliate marketers across the African region – from Mali and the Lake Chad region to Somalia – remain a threat, with some expanding over and above their traditional regions of operation .
Other affiliates, such as the group’s Yemen-based al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, remain loyal to the core and, based on the UN monitoring group, are keen to revive overseas attacks against the US as well as its allies.
Now, al-Zawahri’s successor is going to be looking to retain the commitment of al-Qaeda’s affiliates as it strives to stay a potent danger.
What does this particular tell us about ALL OF US operations in Afghanistan under the Taliban?
The American withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 motivated questions over if the US could keep stress on al-Qaeda, ISIS-K and other militants in the country.
US officials described that an “over-the-horizon” strategy – launching surgical attacks and special operations raids from outdoors any given state – would allow the US to deal with problems that emerged, for example terrorist attacks and the resurgence of organizations.
But many experts disagreed . And when an errant ALL OF US drone strike killed 7 children, an US-employed humanitarian worker and other civilians last fall, that strategy received sharp scrutiny.
But for those who doubted whether the US nevertheless had the desire to pursue key terrorists in Afghanistan, the eliminating of al-Zawahri provides a clear answer. This particular strike reportedly involved long-term security of Zawahri great family and robust debate within the US authorities before receiving president approval. Biden states it was carried out without civilian casualties.
At the same time, it required the US 11 several weeks to strike the first high-value focus on in Afghanistan underneath the Taliban. This contrasts with the hundreds of airstrikes executed within the years before the US withdrawal.
The strike occurred in the Kabul neighborhood filled by senior Taliban figures. The safehouse by itself belonged to a senior help to Sirajuddin Haqqani, a terrorist wanted from the US and a top Taliban leader.
Aiding and abetting al-Zawahri was a violation of the Doha agreement , below which the Taliban decided “not to cooperate with groups or individuals threatening the safety of the United States and its allies. ” The circumstances of the strike suggest that when the U. S. really wants to do effective over-the-horizon operations in Afghanistan, it cannot count on the Taliban for support.
The strike upon al-Zawahri also tells us little about whether or not the US strategy post-pullout can contain additional jihadist groups in the region like ISIS-K , that is vehemently opposed to the particular Taliban and expanding within Afghanistan .
Indeed, we believe that if more jihadists perceive the Taliban to be too poor to protect the top leaders of al-Qaeda and its particular affiliates, while at the same time unable to govern Afghanistan without US aid, numerous may consider ISIS-K as the best choice .
These and other mechanics speak to the many challenges of pursuing a good over-the-horizon counterterrorism in Afghanistan today, types that are unlikely to become solved by periodic high-profile drone strikes and assassinations.
Haroro J. Ingram is Older Research Fellow at the Program on Extremism, George Washington University ; Andrew Mines is Research Many other at the Program on Extremism, George Washington University , and Daniel Milton is definitely Director of Analysis, United States Military Academy Western Point
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