Commentary: Who decides the cessation of violence in Myanmar?

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The global society frequently sees the conflict in Myanmar as a civil war between rival political parties. For example, the objectives of the Myanmar people are not mentioned in a 2021 Chinese foreign ministry speech.

However, a sizable portion of Myanmar’s community sees the ongoing and, in some areas, fierce resistance to military rule as sparked by an uprising within the nation. Peaceful demonstrations against the military government continue in countless urban and rural areas.

According to the NUG’s Ministry of Defense, there are more than 400 metropolitan rebel forces and on 259 PDF units that have been set up globally, operating in 250 township-based units. Although the Ministry of Defense at NUG makes an effort to impose a code of conduct for PDF employees, many local PDFs sometimes break it.

The NUG and its PDFs are seen by some ethnic resistance organizations more as allies in the fight against the federal government( or in this case, the SAC ) than as the head of their coalition. The NUG finds it challenging to control the distinct resistance forces because conflicts within ethnic resistance organizations have resulted in unintended civilian casualties. The NUG essentially lacks the ability to enforce its principles regarding the treatment of” dalan”( informants ) or its code of conduct for armed resistance personnel without an efficient chain of command.

Despite providing incentives to soldiers such as promises of advertising and allowing the plundering of villages, the SAC even appears unable to keep an efficient chain of command. According to reports of abandonment, desertion, and small mutinies, the SAC is unable to fully control its security forces.

It is important to note that abandonment rates in the Myanmar war have previously been high, despite the NUG’s assertion that more than 13, 000 soldiers and police officers have defected since the coup’d start. 4, 701 deserters were recorded in one military place alone in 2005, during a time of better army control, but since 2022, military defections appear to have decreased.