GREATER TRANQUILITY
First, it is worth observing that major modifications in borders – whether through conquest, secession or unification – are the historical norm. In this respect, the particular post-colonial era is definitely an anomaly. One watch is that this era of relative balance will continue. An additional is that it will confirm temporary, and frequent border changes can become common once again : just as the border between Russia and Ukraine is being contested again.
Issue second view is definitely correct, India and Pakistan are hardly such longstanding, well-defined nations that they are natural candidates to stay exactly as they are. Both their own borders and their political arrangements can quickly change.
2nd, the overseas areas of both Indians and Pakistanis are usually growing, with substantial presences in North America, Europe and the Gulf of mexico states. These areas process the India-Pakistan relationship in their own way, and many of these come from backgrounds in which Indians and Pakistanis are good friends and much more generally get on well. It is possible that these communities will become more important in India plus Pakistan, as may their tendency to market greater harmony.
A third factor is usually viability of the nation-state of Pakistan. The country, founded in 1947, recently applied for the 23rd bailout from the International Financial Fund, and is to the verge of another economic crisis . The current account deficit is skyrocketing, and the currency will be plummeting. At what point is it reasonable to say that present arrangements are simply not working? India’s GDP per capita continues to take away from Pakistan’s.
In any sane entire world, India and Pakistan ought to be super-close financial partners. Yet their current bilateral trade is only US$514 mil, and it is not easy going between the two nations. It is not crazy to think that something fundamental has to give, even if it is decades away.