UNCERTAINTY IN THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE AND INVESTMENT Culture
Unabhängig of the results of the prime minister voting, the new civilian administration will continue to be prone to domestic politics and extra-parliamentary interference. Mr Srettha’s resignation likewise portends a good change towards more, not less, conservative-military control over politicians in the coming decades.
But his death is doubtful to fire large-scale protests. Pheu Thai’s common support for the now-dissolved MFP has significantly decreased since its treachery.
A further problem may be Thaksin’s political interests. After his one-year jail term officially ends on August 31st, the former prime minister may produce controversial maneuvers.
His efforts to establish himself in front of the other alliance partners as well as the army could be superseded by a Paetongtarn administration. Thaksin’s two-decade much struggle with the military for democratic power seems set to continue, albeit within the confines of an uncomfortable empire.
All of this is unlikely to help Thailand in terms of restoring investment trust. Policy continuity may continue to beelusive in the areas of expense and economy because social fragility is likely to persist.
There will be much more uncertainty about priority foreign investment sectors as well as the fate of the current proposals to legalize casinos and decriminalise cannabis employ, despite the previous administration’s stimulus and hospitality schemes appearing likely to continue.
So Thailand’s wait for a tough political system continues. Is it still important to see whether foreign investors may continue to support it for a long time.
Harrison Cheng is a producer at Control Risks, a chance consulting firm.