On the one hand, China may be forced to show its hand by undertaking more forceful actions to stop the missions. On the other, doing this would risk direct confrontation with American forces. This puts China between a rock and a hard place.
All eyes will also be on Washington to see if it demonstrates less-than-desired resolve to back up a formal treaty ally. Yet a joint escort for resupply runs would strain existing capacities and potentially enter direct confrontation with the Chinese.
Manila appears more wary, having stressed that China’s aggressive behaviour to date would have to be assessed in determining the applicability of the mutual defence treaty with Washington.
That said, the possibility of a joint Philippine-US effort to resupply Second Thomas Shoal would become higher if Beijing shows no or little inclination to stand down from its aggressive blockading actions. It would therefore behove China to refrain from escalating beyond what it is already doing, lest it decides to gamble in a “game of chicken” to further test American resolve.
Unless of course, Beijing concludes that Washington will be the first to blink. This would definitely set the two powers on a course of collision in the South China Sea.
Collin Koh is senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, based in Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.