Meanwhile, through the BURMA Act – incorporated into the National Defense Authorization Act and signed by President Joe Biden in December 2022 – the US pledged to provide nonlethal assistance, such as medical supplies, radar equipment and armored military vehicles, to pro-democratic forces in Burma.
Although this is welcomed by supporters of Myanmar democracy, it nonetheless makes it harder to force a weakened opposition to the negotiating table – especially if it believes it is winning the war.
And finally, although the junta is finding it difficult to force an emboldened pro-democracy opposition into submission, it is still the strongest party in the conflict. Knowing that might make it more reluctant to negotiate.
As it is, any mediator faces the problem of trying to force a military junta used to being in power and accustomed to impunity over its actions to the table.
WHAT IS INDONESIA’S ROLE?
So where does that leave Indonesia’s attempt to play regional peacemaker?
Patience is understandably running thin for international observers who watch the military junta committing atrocities on the opposition daily. Some have called on Indonesia to suspend Myanmar’s ASEAN membership.
Although Indonesia and the rest of ASEAN member states decided not to invite the representative of the junta to attend this year’s summit, they are unlikely to suspend its ASEAN membership out of concern for destabilising the region further.
As an aspiring regional power, Indonesia has the ability to harness not only its economic and military weight but its moral voice by continuing to appeal to warring parties to better protect the lives of Myanmar civilians.
Getting the combatants to agree to end the violence might be an unattainable goal during its tenure as the chair of ASEAN. But if Indonesia is to become a stabilising leader in the region, it will need to continue efforts long after it relinquishes that role in December 2023.