The Middle East’s harmony is still a dream.
The Middle East is then” quieter now than it has been in two years ,” according to United States National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who made the bold claim just over a week before the problems. His schedule was impeccable; it could not have been worse.
Mr. Sullivan’s assertion was an act of political theater intended to demonstrate the skillfulness of the Biden administration in dousing brushfires in the hot-button area. It is now in ruins, much to no one’s wonder.
Is Middle Eastern peace a mirage? was the topic of discussion at the Middle East Institute’s yearly event earlier this year.
The Abraham Accords, the lifting of the Blockade of Qatar, and a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran to reestablish relationships, among other things, were among the questions posed in response to the region’s recent rash of detente. Although not overly negative, the board lacked optimism. Those who had a reason to pause may presently feel validated.
However, the conflagration conceals two more significant changes that may affect the area. The first is that Israel’s life must be acknowledged and cannot be disregarded. It will be a problem for the Middle Eastern nations, and some now have. The second is the immediate, philosophical need for the major players to transform in order to face the future and abandon their outdated model economies.
They will need more trading partners, investments, and commerce, among other things, to accomplish that. A crucial component of this equation is Israel’s grit and cutting-edge technologies in everything from defense to crops. The United Arab Emirates, which joined Bahrain in the Abraham Accords second, and Israel signed a free trade agreement last month. Both countries anticipate that their monthly bilateral trade did reach US$ 10 billion in five years, or 10 times that amount in 2021.
These are the dominant national interests directing the policies of the region’s main economies, and they won’t change anytime soon. Israel’s primary concern at the moment is self-defense, while nations like the UAE, which allied with it, will be compelled to maintain a distance in order to quell inside unrest. For Saudi Arabia, even considering normalization now or in the close future would be equivalent to dicing with difficulty, which Riyadh despises doing.
However, not much has changed in the big picture. The last lesson Singaporeans may take away from this is that, in the end, all well-governed nations will steadfastly follow their passions, even if the cost occasionally seems excessive.
The Middle East is experiencing geological changes. We can anticipate more upsets because of how these things tend to break some china. But ultimately, the area’s contours may change.
Senior Associate Director at the Middle East Institute, NUS, Carl Skadian is a 30-year-old columnist and writer.